Atlético Grau vs Alianza Lima: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

10/05/2025 at 16:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Estadio Campeones del 36 (Sullana).

: Liga 1 - Apertura - Round 12
Referee: Ordonez E. (Per)

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
1.05	1.20
Ball Possession
42%	58%
Total shots
12	18
Shots on target
2	3
Big Chances
1	2
Corner Kicks
6	5
Passes
70% (238/341)	79% (371/470)
Yellow Cards
3	2
Red Cards
0	1
Expected Goals (xG)
1.05	1.20
xG on target (xGOT)
0.53	1.24
Total shots
12	18
Shots on target
2	3
Shots off target
8	8
Blocked Shots
2	7
Shots inside the Box
4	14
Shots outside the Box
8	4
Hit the Woodwork
0	0
Headed Goals
1	0
Big Chances
1	2
Corner Kicks
6	5
Touches in opposition box
9	29
Accurate through passes
0	1
Offsides
3	4
Free Kicks
6	18
Passes
70% (238/341)	79% (371/470)
Long passes
37% (30/81)	44% (31/70)
Passes in final third
57% (43/76)	53% (69/129)
Crosses
23% (3/13)	33% (6/18)
Expected assists (xA)
0.72	1.06
Throw-ins
14	19
Fouls
18	6
Tackles
88% (14/16)	75% (6/8)
Duels won
49	61
Clearances
48	21
Interceptions
4	13
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
2	1
xGOT faced
1.24	0.53
Goals prevented
0.24	-0.47

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (1 - 0)
18', 1 - 0, Bandiera N. ⚽, F. Rojas (A),
41', Soto D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
51', Garces R. 🟨,
58', Garces R. 🟨,
63', D'Arrigo J. ↓, Quevedo K. ↑,
63', Ceppelini P. ↓, Cari P. ↑,
72', Vilca R. 🟨,
75', Bandiera N. ↓, Olivares C. ↑,
75', Franco D. ↓, Reyes J. ↑,
75', Ruidiaz R. ↓, Sandoval T. ↑,
76', F. Rojas 🟨,
81', Enrique G. ↓, Huaman M. ↑,
81', Trauco M. ↓, Lagos R. ↑,
84', Vilca R. ↓, Rodas E. ↑,
85', 1 - 1, Barcos H. ⚽, Huaman M. (A),

Chances of winning

Atlético Grau
19.9%

Draw
27.1%

Alianza Lima
53.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.3%

28.8%

39.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.1%

27.7%

41.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Grau has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Atlético Grau's form might have worsened.

Alianza Lima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Alianza Lima's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Grau than the current prediction. (+10.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Atlético Grau, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alianza Lima than the current prediction. (-11.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Alianza Lima, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Atlético Grau - Alianza Lima Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.73 ↑ (3)	3.44 ↑ (3.25)	1.76 ↓ (2.35)	6.9% (6.7%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

What is the prediction for Atlético Grau - Alianza Lima?

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Grau will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Alianza Lima will win (votes: 3 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Grau (votes: 1 - 50%). Alianza Lima (votes: 1 - 50%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:1.

Preview Facts

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 15 and 5).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Grau won 1.
The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
Grau may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
Recently, Alianza Lima has had a series of home games.
In this match, Alianza Lima is seen as the favorite.
In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Grau won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 4:10. (average 0.6:1.4).
Including home matches between the teams, Grau won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:4. (average 1:1.3).

How many head-to-head matches has Atlético Grau won against Alianza Lima?

Atlético Grau has won 1 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Alianza Lima won against Atlético Grau?

Alianza Lima has won 3 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Atlético Grau - Alianza Lima were as follows:

18.09.2024 Atlético Grau - Alianza Lima 1:0

14.04.2024 Alianza Lima - Atlético Grau 2:0

23.06.2023 Alianza Lima - Atlético Grau 2:0

26.03.2023 Atlético Grau - Alianza Lima 1:2

Latest results of Atlético Grau

07.05.2025 Atlético Grau - Grêmio 0:0 ✺

02.05.2025 Sport Huancayo - Atlético Grau 3:0 ✺

27.04.2025 Atlético Grau - Sport Boys 3:3 ✺

23.04.2025 Atlético Grau - Sportivo Luqueño 2:2 ✺

17.04.2025 Alianza Universidad de Huánuco - Atlético Grau 0:0 ✺

Latest results of Alianza Lima

06.05.2025 Alianza Lima - São Paulo 0:2 ✺

02.05.2025 Alianza Lima - Cienciano 0:1 ✺

22.04.2025 Alianza Lima - Talleres de Córdoba 3:2 ✺

18.04.2025 Alianza Lima - Los Chankas 1:0 ✺

14.04.2025 Deportivo Garcilaso - Alianza Lima 0:1 ✺

Peruvian Liga 1 Table

2025

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	U. de Deportes	16	11	2	3	37:12	25	35
2	Alianza Lima	16	10	3	3	18:10	8	33
3	Alianza Atl	16	10	1	5	27:16	11	31
4	FBC Melgar	16	8	5	3	26:18	8	29
5	Cusco	16	8	4	4	29:19	10	28
6	Sporting Cristal	16	9	1	6	28:22	6	28
7	Deportivo Garcilaso	17	8	3	6	28:18	10	27
8	Sport Huancayo	16	8	3	5	22:18	4	27
9	Cienciano	16	5	7	4	28:23	5	22
10	Los Chankas	16	5	6	5	23:24	-1	21
11	Sport Boys	16	5	5	6	25:25	0	20
12	AD Tarma	16	5	5	6	22:29	-7	20
13	Grau	16	4	7	5	20:22	-2	19
14	Cajamarca	16	5	3	8	17:33	-16	18
15	Binacional	16	4	5	7	18:27	-9	17
16	Juan Pablo II	15	4	3	8	18:25	-7	15
17	Comerciantes Unidos	16	2	5	9	17:29	-12	11
18	Ayacucho	16	2	3	11	12:27	-15	9
19	Alianza Huanuco	16	1	5	10	14:32	-18	8

Promotion ~ Liga 1 (Play Offs: )

Which TV channels are streaming of Atlético Grau - Alianza Lima?

It is being streamed on various channels, including:


China	K-Ball
Peru	L1 Max, Liga 1 Max, Liga 1 Play
Usa	Fanatiz