Result
2:1
01/10/2025 at 21:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga 1 - Clausura - Round 12
- Referee: Quiroz J. C. (Per)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Mexico | Fanatiz |
 Peru | Liga 1 Max, Liga 1 Play |
 Usa | Fanatiz, Fox Deportes, Fox Deportes, Fox Sports App, Foxsports.com, Fox |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.04 | 1.50 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 56% | 44% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 18 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 9 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (347/442) | 75% (262/348) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.04 | 1.50 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.30 | 0.81 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 18 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 8 | 7 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 2 | 8 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 8 | 13 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 8 | 5 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 9 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 25 | 16 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 14 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (347/442) | 75% (262/348) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 53% (35/66) | 37% (25/67) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 64% (76/118) | 63% (66/105) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 31% (4/13) | 25% (4/16) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.44 | 0.77 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 19 | 14 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 14 | 8 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 82% (9/11) | 100% (9/9) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 46 | 46 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 17 | 33 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 5 | 11 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.81 | 2.30 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.19 | 0.30 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 13', 0 - 1, Bandiera N. ⚽, de la Cruz P. (A),
- 25', Bolivar J. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (2 - 0)
- 53', 1 - 1, Cantero A. ⚽, Paolo Guerrero (A),
- 55', 2 - 1, Estrada J. ⚽,
- 57', Guarderas R. ↓, Reyes J. ↑,
- 69', Garro J. ↓, Vilca R. ↑,
- 69', Sandoval T. ↓, Ruidiaz R. ↑,
- 76', Ceppelini P. 🟨,
- 76', Ceppelini P. ↓, Castillo J. ↑,
- 76', Paolo Guerrero ↓, Barcos H. ↑,
- 78', Bandiera N. ↓, Herrera Joel ↑,
- 78', de la Cruz P. ↓, Vasquez A. ↑,
- 83', Cantero A. ↓, Gentile G. ↑,
- 83', Quevedo K. ↓, Archimbaud J. ↑,
- 88', Ruidiaz R. 🟨,
- 89', Gaibor F. ↓, Pena S. ↑,
Chances of winning
Alianza Lima
63.6% | Draw
22.8% | Atlético Grau
13.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Alianza Lima has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)Atlético Grau has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alianza Lima than the current prediction. (+2.6%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Grau than the current prediction. (+0.2%)
Alianza Lima - Atlético Grau Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.47 ↑
(1.46) |
4.13 ↓
(4.32) |
6.96 ↑
(6.54) |
6.8%
(7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Alianza Lima - Atlético Grau?
Users Predictions:
5 users predict this event. Alianza Lima will win (votes: 5 - 100%). High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Alianza Lima (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 6 and 10).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Alianza Lima won 3.
- Recent form of Alianza Lima has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Grau is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Grau may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Alianza Lima is the undisputed favorite.
- There will not play in Alianza Lima: Castillo E.
(Red Card)
Zambrano C.
(Red Card)
- In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Alianza Lima won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:5. (average 1.4:0.6).
- Including home matches between the teams, Alianza Lima won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:1. (average 1.5:0.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Alianza Lima won against Atlético Grau?
Alianza Lima has won 3 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Atlético Grau won against Alianza Lima?
Atlético Grau has won 1 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Alianza Lima - Atlético Grau were as follows:
10.05.2025
Atlético Grau
-
Alianza Lima
1:1
18.09.2024
Atlético Grau
-
Alianza Lima
1:0
14.04.2024
Alianza Lima
-
Atlético Grau
2:0
23.06.2023
Alianza Lima
-
Atlético Grau
2:0
26.03.2023
Atlético Grau
-
Alianza Lima
1:2
Latest results of Alianza Lima
Latest results of Atlético Grau
Peruvian Liga 1 Table
Clausura | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | U. de Deportes | 15 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 28:10 | 18 | 39 |
| 2 | Cusco | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 21:12 | 9 | 26 |
| 3 | Alianza Lima | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 23:16 | 7 | 24 |
| 4 | FBC Melgar | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 22:15 | 7 | 24 |
| 5 | Sporting Cristal | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 21:10 | 11 | 22 |
| 6 | Comerciantes Unidos | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 16:17 | -1 | 22 |
| 7 | Cienciano | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 20:17 | 3 | 21 |
| 8 | AD Tarma | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 18:19 | -1 | 21 |
| 9 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 19:21 | -2 | 21 |
| 10 | Los Chankas | 13 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 16:24 | -8 | 21 |
| 11 | Alianza Atl | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 11:10 | 1 | 16 |
| 12 | Grau | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 16:17 | -1 | 15 |
| 13 | Sport Huancayo | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 24:26 | -2 | 15 |
| 14 | Sport Boys | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 12:19 | -7 | 15 |
| 15 | Ayacucho | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 15:23 | -8 | 14 |
| 16 | Alianza Huanuco | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 17:29 | -12 | 13 |
| 17 | Cajamarca | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 14:20 | -6 | 12 |
| 18 | Juan Pablo II | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 9:17 | -8 | 11 |
| 19 | Binacional | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
Promotion ~ Liga 1 (Play Offs: )
