FBC Melgar vs Atlético Grau – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Peruvian Liga 1 FBC Melgar - Atlético Grau
Result
1:1
18/05/2025 at 19:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Liga 1 - Apertura - Round 13
  • Where to Watch on TV:
chinaChinaK-Ball
peruPeruL1 Max, Liga 1 Max, Liga 1 Play

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.891.31
Ball Possession
52%48%
Total shots
1314
Shots on target
24
Big Chances
31
Corner Kicks
23
Passes
74% (283/381)78% (282/361)
Yellow Cards
22
Expected Goals (xG)
0.891.31
xG on target (xGOT)
0.831.15
Total shots
1314
Shots on target
24
Shots off target
78
Blocked Shots
42
Shots inside the Box
78
Shots outside the Box
66
Hit the Woodwork
10
Headed Goals
10
Big Chances
31
Corner Kicks
23
Touches in opposition box
1611
Accurate through passes
30
Offsides
20
Free Kicks
1513
Passes
74% (283/381)78% (282/361)
Long passes
53% (53/100)53% (31/59)
Passes in final third
58% (70/121)57% (36/63)
Crosses
36% (8/22)22% (2/9)
Expected assists (xA)
0.950.36
Throw-ins
2821
Fouls
1315
Tackles
91% (10/11)64% (7/11)
Duels won
5447
Clearances
1118
Interceptions
514
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
31
xGOT faced
1.150.83
Goals prevented
0.00-0.04

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 3', 1 - 0, Liza P. , Cabrera Nakamura K. G. (A),
  • 8', Guarderas R. 🟨,
  • 19', Liza P. 🟨,
  • 45', Cabrera Nakamura K. G. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 1)
  • 60', Vasquez A. , Sandoval T. ,
  • 65', Arias A. , Martinez T. ,
  • 65', Guzman L. , Rodriguez G. ,
  • 77', Liza P. , Castro F. ,
  • 79', Vilca R. , Herrera Joel ,
  • 88', 1 - 1, Ruidiaz R. (Pen),
  • 90+3', Alvarez P. 🟨,

Chances of winning


FBC Melgar
66.3%
Draw
20.8%
Atlético Grau
12.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
71.9% 18.3% 9.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

76% 17.3% 9.3%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • FBC Melgar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that FBC Melgar's form might have worsened.
  • Atlético Grau has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for FBC Melgar than the current prediction. (+9.7%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for FBC Melgar, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Grau than the current prediction. (-3.6%)
  • FBC Melgar - Atlético Grau Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.4
    (1.3)
    4.51
    (5.1)
    7.18
    (9.5)
    7.5%
    (7.1%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
  • What is the prediction for FBC Melgar - Atlético Grau?
  • Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Melgar will win (votes: 8 - 100%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Melgar: 100%100%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Melgar (votes: 2 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 2 and 15).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Melgar won 2.
    • Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
    • In this match, Melgar is the undeniable favorite.
    • There will not play in Melgar: Bordacahar C. (Knee Injury) Cuesta B. (Knee Injury)
    • There will not play in Grau: Cavagna F. (Injury) Garro J. (Injury) de la Cruz P. (Injury)
    • In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Melgar won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:3. (average 1.4:0.4).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Melgar won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:0. (average 1.8:0).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between FBC Melgar - Atlético Grau were as follows:
    23.09.2024 FBC Melgar - Atlético Grau 0:0
    21.04.2024 Atlético Grau - FBC Melgar 1:2
    07.07.2023 FBC Melgar - Atlético Grau 3:0
    24.10.2022 Atlético Grau - FBC Melgar 2:1
    Latest results of FBC Melgar
    Latest results of Atlético Grau
    Peruvian Liga 1 Table
    Clausura
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1U. de Deportes963015:6921
    2Cusco761011:3819
    3Deportivo Garcilaso945014:8617
    4Sporting Cristal944115:51016
    5Alianza Lima943214:9515
    6FBC Melgar1034315:12313
    7Cienciano933314:12212
    8Sport Huancayo1033416:16012
    9Los Chankas840412:20-812
    10Comerciantes Unidos932410:14-411
    11Grau831411:11010
    12Juan Pablo II82427:8-110
    13AD Tarma83148:12-410
    14Alianza Huanuco93159:15-610
    15Alianza Atl71423:307
    16Ayacucho82156:10-47
    17Sport Boys91264:12-85
    18Cajamarca80266:14-82
    19Binacional00000:000

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