Atlético Monte Azul vs Comercial SP – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A3 Atlético Monte Azul - Comercial SP
Result
1:0
26/02/2025 at 13:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • BRAZIL: Paulista A3 - Round 11

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 2nd Half (1 - 0)
  • 47', 1 - 0, Pedoca ,

Chances of winning


Atlético Monte Azul
53.2%
Draw
27.1%
Comercial SP
19.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
58.4% 27.4% 14.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.6% 26.4% 13.7%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Atlético Monte Azul has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Atlético Monte Azul's form might have worsened.
  • Comercial SP has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Comercial SP's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Monte Azul than the current prediction. (+7.4%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Atlético Monte Azul, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Comercial SP than the current prediction. (-6%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Comercial SP, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
  • Atlético Monte Azul - Comercial SP Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.71
    (1.55)
    3.36
    (3.3)
    4.62
    (6.39)
    9.7%
    (10.5%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
  • Preview Facts
    • One of the leader and one of the outsider will play in this match (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista A3 (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 16 in the zone Relegation ~ Paulista A4).
    • Last 5 head-to-head matches Monte Azul won 2.
    • Monte Azul is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).
    • Recent matches Comercial SP is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
    • Comercial SP could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
    • In this match Monte Azul is a favorite.
    • Last 6 head-to-head matches Monte Azul won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6:5 (average 1:0.8).
    • Including matches at home between the teams Monte Azul won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4:2 (average 1.3:0.7).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Atlético Monte Azul - Comercial SP were as follows:
    14.09.2024 Atlético Monte Azul - Comercial SP 1:0
    07.09.2024 Comercial SP - Atlético Monte Azul 0:0
    17.08.2024 Atlético Monte Azul - Comercial SP 2:1
    13.07.2024 Comercial SP - Atlético Monte Azul 2:1
    16.03.2024 Comercial SP - Atlético Monte Azul 1:1
    Latest results of Atlético Monte Azul
    Latest results of Comercial SP
    Draw
    Play Offs

    Quarter-finals
    1DesportivoRio Branco SP1 : 3, 0 : 0
    2Monte AzulItapirense3 : 2, 0 : 0
    3SertaozinhoCatanduva0 : 0, 2 : 0
    4MariliaUniao Sao Joao3 : 0, 0 : 1

    Semi-finals
    1Rio Branco SPMonte Azul1 : 2, 0 : 1
    2SertaozinhoMarilia0 : 1, 2 : 0

    Final
    1Monte AzulSertaozinho1 : 1, 1 : 3