Result
2:5
15/03/2026 at 12:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Bundesliga - Championship Group - Round 23
- Referee: Altmann W. (Aut)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Austria | Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1 |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.08 | 2.82 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 49% | 51% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 20 | 18 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 9 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 6 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 76% (233/307) | 76% (256/335) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| Red cards |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.08 | 2.82 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.08 | 4.30 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 20 | 18 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 9 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 7 | 6 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 16 | 13 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 6 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 33 | 25 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 15 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 76% (233/307) | 76% (256/335) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 46% (21/46) | 35% (13/37) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 66% (61/92) | 51% (43/84) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 29% (6/21) | 43% (6/14) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.48 | 1.66 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 17 | 24 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 15 | 7 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 86% (12/14) | 74% (14/19) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 40 | 54 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 20 | 24 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 6 | 8 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 4.30 | 1.08 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.30 | -0.92 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 2)
- 1', 1 - 0, Schablas M. ⚽, Barry A. (A),
- 6', 1 - 1, Rozga F. ⚽,
- 30', Barry A. 🟨,
- 43', Plavotic T. 🟨,
- 45+1', 1 - 2, Kiteishvili O. ⚽, Jatta S. (A),
- 2nd Half (1 - 3)
- 55', Plavotic T. 🟨,
- 55', 1 - 3, Kiteishvili O. (Penalty Awarded),
- 56', Rozga F. 🟨,
- 60', 1 - 4, Fosso R. ⚽,
- 62', Maybach P. ↓, Markovic V. ↑,
- 62', Lee Kang-Hee ↓, Handl J. ↑,
- 63', Jatta S. ↓, Beganovic B. ↑,
- 63', Rozga F. ↓, Mamageishvili G. ↑,
- 67', 1 - 5, Dragovic A. (Own goal),
- 70', Wiesinger P. 🟨,
- 72', Kiteishvili O. ↓, Malone M. ↑,
- 72', Hodl J. ↓, Malic A. ↑,
- 77', Koller P. 🟥,
- 82', Barry A. ↓, Morth R. ↑,
- 82', Schablas M. ↓, Osterreicher M. ↑,
- 84', 2 - 5, Fischer M. ⚽, Ranftl R. (A),
- 88', Fosso R. ↓, Weinhandl L. ↑,
- 88', Eggestein J. ↓, Kante A. ↑,
- 89', Handl J. 🟨,
- 90+3', Dragovic A. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Austria Wien
36.4% | Draw
30.3% | Sturm Graz
33.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Austria Wien has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)Sturm Graz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Austria Wien than the current prediction. (+5.6%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Austria Wien, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sturm Graz than the current prediction. (-4%)
Austria Wien - Sturm Graz Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.6 ↑
(2.29) |
3.12 ↓
(3.2) |
2.86 ↓
(3.07) |
5.6%
(7.5%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Austria Wien - Sturm Graz?
Users Predictions:
12 users predict this event. Austria will win (votes: 4 - 33.3%). Sturm will win (votes: 4 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Austria: 6.6% – 60%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Austria (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH 0 - Austria (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 50%) .
- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 50%) .
- AH -1 - Austria (3.40) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -0.75 - Austria (2.57) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -0.5 - Austria (2.39) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- DNB - Sturm (2.08) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 1.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 8 high ROI users predict this event. Austria (votes: 6 - 75%). Sturm (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Austria won 4.
- Right now, both teams are showing solid form.
- Austria will hold a modest advantage in this match.
- There will not play in Austria: Aleksa K.
(Muscle Injury)
Boateng K.
(Inactive)
Botic N.
(Broken ankle)
El Sheiwi Z.
(Knee Injury)
Lee Tae-Seok
(Yellow Cards)
Saljic S.
(Inactive)
Sarkaria M.
(Injury)
- There will not play in Sturm: Grgic L.
(Knee Injury)
Khudyakov D.
(Inactive)
Lavalee D.
(Knee Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Austria won 8 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 27:34. (average 1.4:1.7).
- Including home matches between the teams, Austria won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 14:19. (average 1.6:2.1).
How many head-to-head matches has Austria Wien won against Sturm Graz?
Austria Wien has won 6 of their last 13 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Sturm Graz won against Austria Wien?
Sturm Graz has won 5 of their last 13 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Austria Wien - Sturm Graz were as follows:
14.12.2025
Austria Wien
-
Sturm Graz
3:1
14.09.2025
Sturm Graz
-
Austria Wien
0:1
27.04.2025
Sturm Graz
-
Austria Wien
0:1
23.04.2025
Austria Wien
-
Sturm Graz
2:1
07.02.2025
Sturm Graz
-
Austria Wien
2:2
Latest results of Austria Wien
Latest results of Sturm Graz
Austrian Bundesliga Table
Championship Group | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Sturm Graz | 23 | 13 | 2 | 8 | 38:28 | 10 | 22 |
| 2 | LASK | 23 | 11 | 5 | 7 | 32:30 | 2 | 19 |
| 3 | SK Rapid | 23 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 27:25 | 2 | 19 |
| 4 | Salzburg | 23 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 42:27 | 15 | 18 |
| 5 | Austria Vienna | 23 | 11 | 3 | 9 | 36:35 | 1 | 18 |
| 6 | Hartberg | 23 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 29:24 | 5 | 17 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
