Result
4:0
15/03/2026 at 09:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Eredivisie - Round 27
- Referee: Hensgens R. (Ned)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Argentina | Disney+ |
 Brazil | Disney+ |
 Canada | Sportsnet+ |
 France | DAZN France |
 Hong-kong | myTV SUPER |
 India | Eurosport, JioTV app |
 Indonesia | Vidio |
 Japan | U-NEXT |
 Mexico | Disney+, ESPN 4 |
 Netherlands | Canal+, ESPN |
 North-central-america | Disney+ Caribbean |
 Peru | Disney+ |
 Serbia | Arena Sport 7 |
 Slovakia | Arena sport 2 |
 Turkey | Tivibu Spor 3 |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Usa | ESPN App, ESPN+ |
 Venezuela | Disney+ |
 World | Triller TV+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 3.28 | 0.66 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 52% | 48% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 6 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 2 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 81% (343/425) | 78% (308/396) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 0 | 4 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 3.28 | 0.66 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 4.28 | 0.32 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 6 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 12 | 3 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 33 | 25 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 19 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 81% (343/425) | 78% (308/396) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 36% (18/50) | 45% (24/53) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 68% (103/152) | 62% (69/112) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 17% (2/12) | 38% (3/8) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.80 | 1.53 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 19 | 12 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 10 | 19 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 73% (16/22) | 71% (15/21) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 53 | 56 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 21 | 23 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.32 | 4.28 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.68 | 0.28 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 0)
- 5', 1 - 0, Parrott T. ⚽, de Wit M. (A),
- 32', Daal R. ↓, Jensen I. ↑,
- 43', Wieckhoff J. 🟨,
- 45+1', 2 - 0, Mijnans S. ⚽, Parrott T. (A),
- 2nd Half (2 - 0)
- 46', Wieckhoff J. ↓, Benita M. ↑,
- 46', Bozinovski R. ↓, Scheperman S. ↑,
- 56', Unuvar N. ↓, van Gilst T. ↑,
- 58', Zeefuik L. 🟨,
- 60', Dijkstra E. ↓, Kasius D. ↑,
- 60', Weslley Patati ↓, Sadiq I. ↑,
- 70', Scheperman S. 🟨,
- 71', Zamburek J. ↓, Bruns T. ↑,
- 76', 3 - 0, de Wit M. ⚽, Parrott T. (A),
- 77', Parrott T. ↓, Meerdink M. ↑,
- 77', Koopmeiners P. ↓, Boogaard K. ↑,
- 82', Mirani D. 🟨,
- 84', 4 - 0, Jensen I. ⚽,
Chances of winning
AZ Alkmaar
70.3% | Draw
17.9% | Heracles Almelo
11.8% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
AZ Alkmaar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)Heracles Almelo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for AZ Alkmaar than the current prediction. (+5.9%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for AZ Alkmaar, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Heracles Almelo than the current prediction. (-1.7%)
AZ Alkmaar - Heracles Almelo Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.35 ↑
(1.32) |
5.24 ↑
(5.03) |
8.13 ↓
(8.5) |
5.6%
(7.7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.25
What is the prediction for AZ Alkmaar - Heracles Almelo?
Users Predictions:
14 users predict this event. AZ will win (votes: 9 - 64.3%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 35.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for AZ: 39.2% – 89.4%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH -2 - AZ (3.04) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -1.5 - AZ (1.92) (votes: 1 - 50%) .
- O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH +0.5 - Heracles (6.70) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): AZ Alkmaar will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 7 high ROI users predict this event. AZ (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Heracles (votes: 2 - 28.6%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.
Preview Facts
- A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Conference League ~ Play Offs: ) and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Eerste Divisie).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, AZ won 3.
- In recent matches, AZ has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Heracles is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
- Heracles may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, AZ is the clear favorite.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, AZ won 15 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 52:26. (average 2.6:1.3).
- Including home matches between the teams, AZ won 9 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 30:6. (average 3:0.6).
How many head-to-head matches has AZ Alkmaar won against Heracles Almelo?
AZ Alkmaar has won 3 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Heracles Almelo won against AZ Alkmaar?
Heracles Almelo has won 2 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between AZ Alkmaar - Heracles Almelo were as follows:
14.09.2025
Heracles Almelo
-
AZ Alkmaar
1:2
13.04.2025
Heracles Almelo
-
AZ Alkmaar
1:0
27.02.2025
Heracles Almelo
-
AZ Alkmaar
2:3
01.12.2024
AZ Alkmaar
-
Heracles Almelo
1:0
03.04.2024
Heracles Almelo
-
AZ Alkmaar
5:0
Latest results of AZ Alkmaar
Latest results of Heracles Almelo
Dutch Eredivisie Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | PSV | 28 | 22 | 2 | 4 | 78:37 | 41 | 68 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 28 | 16 | 5 | 7 | 61:40 | 21 | 53 |
| 3 | Nijmegen | 28 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 69:47 | 22 | 50 |
| 4 | Ajax | 28 | 12 | 12 | 4 | 53:35 | 18 | 48 |
| 5 | Twente | 28 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 47:30 | 17 | 47 |
| 6 | AZ Alkmaar | 28 | 12 | 6 | 10 | 47:45 | 2 | 42 |
| 7 | Utrecht | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 42:31 | 11 | 41 |
| 8 | Heerenveen | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 49:46 | 3 | 41 |
| 9 | Sparta Rotterdam | 28 | 12 | 5 | 11 | 35:47 | -12 | 41 |
| 10 | Groningen | 28 | 11 | 5 | 12 | 40:37 | 3 | 38 |
| 11 | Sittard | 28 | 10 | 5 | 13 | 43:52 | -9 | 35 |
| 12 | Zwolle | 28 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 38:53 | -15 | 33 |
| 13 | G.A. Eagles | 28 | 7 | 11 | 10 | 45:45 | 0 | 32 |
| 14 | Telstar | 28 | 6 | 9 | 13 | 38:46 | -8 | 27 |
| 15 | FC Volendam | 28 | 7 | 6 | 15 | 30:48 | -18 | 27 |
| 16 | Excelsior | 28 | 7 | 6 | 15 | 29:47 | -18 | 27 |
| 17 | NAC Breda | 28 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 29:50 | -21 | 23 |
| 18 | Heracles | 28 | 5 | 4 | 19 | 33:70 | -37 | 19 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Conference League ~ Play Offs: )
Eredivisie (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Eerste Divisie
