Result
1:2
14/09/2025 at 08:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Eredivisie - Round 5
- Referee: Nijhuis B. (Ned)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Argentina | Disney+ |
 Brazil | Disney+ |
 Canada | Sportsnet+ |
 France | DAZN France |
 Germany | Sportdigital FUSSBALL |
 Greece | Nova Sports 5 |
 Indonesia | Vidio |
 Mexico | Disney+ |
 Netherlands | Canal+, ESPN 1, ESPN Extra |
 North-central-america | Disney+ Caribbean |
 Peru | Disney+ |
 Russia | TV Start |
 Serbia | Arena Sport 9 |
 Slovakia | Arena sport 1 |
 Slovenia | Sport TV3 |
 Switzerland | Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV |
 United-kingdom | Amazon Prime Video, Premier Sports Player |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Usa | ESPN App, ESPN+ |
 Venezuela | Disney+ |
 World | Triller TV+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.36 | 2.60 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 52% | 48% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 19 | 25 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 8 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 9 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (339/409) | 85% (318/375) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.36 | 2.60 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.51 | 1.99 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 19 | 25 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 8 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 10 | 9 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 3 | 8 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 8 | 13 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 11 | 12 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 9 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 18 | 25 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (339/409) | 85% (318/375) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 41% (22/54) | 51% (23/45) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 70% (81/116) | 80% (103/128) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 17% (4/24) | 28% (5/18) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.59 | 1.21 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 16 | 10 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 11 | 11 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 53% (10/19) | 58% (11/19) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 56 | 53 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 15 | 42 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.99 | 1.51 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.01 | 0.51 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 9', 0 - 1, Penetra ⚽,
- 11', Penetra 🟨,
- 28', Kasius D. 🟨,
- 29', 1 - 1, Mirani D. ⚽, Limbombe B. (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 61', de Wit M. 🟨,
- 69', Weslley Patati ↓, Jensen I. ↑,
- 69', Daal R. ↓, Sadiq I. ↑,
- 70', Borges Sanches Y. ↓, Engels M. ↑,
- 70', Bruns T. ↓, van Gilst T. ↑,
- 74', Clasie J. 🟨,
- 74', Hrustic A. 🟨,
- 77', 1 - 2, Meerdink M. ⚽, Smit K. (A),
- 79', Mijnans S. ↓, Sin M. ↑,
- 83', Hrustic A. ↓, Zamburek J. ↑,
- 83', Limbombe B. ↓, Kulenovic L. ↑,
- 84', van der Kust D. ↓, Ould Chikh W. ↑,
- 84', Smit K. ↓, Koopmeiners P. ↑,
- 84', Meerdink M. ↓, Zeefuik L. ↑,
- 90+1', Zeefuik L. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Heracles Almelo
17.8% | Draw
22.5% | AZ Alkmaar
59.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Heracles Almelo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)AZ Alkmaar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Heracles Almelo than the current prediction. (-1.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for AZ Alkmaar than the current prediction. (+3.7%)
Heracles Almelo - AZ Alkmaar Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
5.35 ↓
(5.8) |
4.25 ↓
(4.44) |
1.62 ↑
(1.53) |
4%
(5.3%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
What is the prediction for Heracles Almelo - AZ Alkmaar?
Users Predictions:
19 users predict this event. AZ will win (votes: 19 - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%) for AZ: 100% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): AZ Alkmaar will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Heracles won 2.
- Recent form of Heracles has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- AZ is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- AZ may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Recently, AZ has had a series of away games.
- In this match, AZ is seen as the favorite.
- There will not play in Heracles: Cestic S.
(Broken ankle)
Engels M.
(Hamstring Injury)
Reine-Adelaide J.
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in AZ: Maikuma S.
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in AZ: Parrott T.
(Inactive)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Heracles won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 15 matches, and goals 26:53. (average 1.3:2.7).
- Including home matches between the teams, Heracles won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 19:20. (average 2.1:2.2).
How many head-to-head matches has Heracles Almelo won against AZ Alkmaar?
Heracles Almelo has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has AZ Alkmaar won against Heracles Almelo?
AZ Alkmaar has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Heracles Almelo - AZ Alkmaar were as follows:
13.04.2025
Heracles Almelo
-
AZ Alkmaar
1:0
27.02.2025
Heracles Almelo
-
AZ Alkmaar
2:3
01.12.2024
AZ Alkmaar
-
Heracles Almelo
1:0
03.04.2024
Heracles Almelo
-
AZ Alkmaar
5:0
28.09.2023
AZ Alkmaar
-
Heracles Almelo
1:1
Latest results of Heracles Almelo
Latest results of AZ Alkmaar
Dutch Eredivisie Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Feyenoord | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 25:6 | 19 | 25 |
| 2 | PSV | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 27:12 | 15 | 22 |
| 3 | AZ Alkmaar | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 19:12 | 7 | 18 |
| 4 | Ajax | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 17:12 | 5 | 16 |
| 5 | Groningen | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 14:13 | 1 | 15 |
| 6 | Nijmegen | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 25:17 | 8 | 14 |
| 7 | Twente | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 17:14 | 3 | 14 |
| 8 | Utrecht | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 18:11 | 7 | 13 |
| 9 | Sittard | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13:13 | 0 | 13 |
| 10 | Sparta Rotterdam | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13:22 | -9 | 13 |
| 11 | Heerenveen | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15:15 | 0 | 12 |
| 12 | G.A. Eagles | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 15:16 | -1 | 10 |
| 13 | Excelsior | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 8:17 | -9 | 9 |
| 14 | NAC Breda | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 10:16 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 | Zwolle | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9:17 | -8 | 8 |
| 16 | Telstar | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 12:18 | -6 | 7 |
| 17 | FC Volendam | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10:16 | -6 | 7 |
| 18 | Heracles | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 7:27 | -20 | 3 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Conference League ~ Play Offs: )
Eredivisie (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Eerste Divisie
