Heracles Almelo vs AZ Alkmaar – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Dutch Eredivisie Heracles Almelo - AZ Alkmaar
Result
1:2
14/09/2025 at 08:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Eredivisie - Round 5
  • Referee: Nijhuis B. (Ned)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
argentinaArgentinaDisney+
brazilBrazilDisney+
canadaCanadaSportsnet+
franceFranceDAZN France
germanyGermanySportdigital FUSSBALL
greeceGreeceNova Sports 5
indonesiaIndonesiaVidio
mexicoMexicoDisney+
netherlandsNetherlandsCanal+, ESPN 1, ESPN Extra
north-central-americaNorth-central-americaDisney+ Caribbean
peruPeruDisney+
russiaRussiaTV Start
serbiaSerbiaArena Sport 9
slovakiaSlovakiaArena sport 1
sloveniaSloveniaSport TV3
switzerlandSwitzerlandSunrise TV, Sunrise TV
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomAmazon Prime Video, Premier Sports Player
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaESPN App, ESPN+
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+
worldWorldTriller TV+

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.362.60
Ball Possession
52%48%
Total shots
1925
Shots on target
68
Big Chances
15
Corner Kicks
69
Passes
83% (339/409)85% (318/375)
Yellow Cards
15
Expected Goals (xG)
1.362.60
xG on target (xGOT)
1.511.99
Total shots
1925
Shots on target
68
Shots off target
109
Blocked Shots
38
Shots inside the Box
813
Shots outside the Box
1112
Hit the Woodwork
10
Headed Goals
10
Big Chances
15
Corner Kicks
69
Touches in opposition box
1825
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
01
Free Kicks
1111
Passes
83% (339/409)85% (318/375)
Long passes
41% (22/54)51% (23/45)
Passes in final third
70% (81/116)80% (103/128)
Crosses
17% (4/24)28% (5/18)
Expected assists (xA)
0.591.21
Throw-ins
1610
Fouls
1111
Tackles
53% (10/19)58% (11/19)
Duels won
5653
Clearances
1542
Interceptions
43
Errors leading to shot
01
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
65
xGOT faced
1.991.51
Goals prevented
-0.010.51

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 1)
  • 9', 0 - 1, Penetra ,
  • 11', Penetra 🟨,
  • 28', Kasius D. 🟨,
  • 29', 1 - 1, Mirani D. , Limbombe B. (A),
  • 2nd Half (0 - 1)
  • 61', de Wit M. 🟨,
  • 69', Weslley Patati , Jensen I. ,
  • 69', Daal R. , Sadiq I. ,
  • 70', Borges Sanches Y. , Engels M. ,
  • 70', Bruns T. , van Gilst T. ,
  • 74', Clasie J. 🟨,
  • 74', Hrustic A. 🟨,
  • 77', 1 - 2, Meerdink M. , Smit K. (A),
  • 79', Mijnans S. , Sin M. ,
  • 83', Hrustic A. , Zamburek J. ,
  • 83', Limbombe B. , Kulenovic L. ,
  • 84', van der Kust D. , Ould Chikh W. ,
  • 84', Smit K. , Koopmeiners P. ,
  • 84', Meerdink M. , Zeefuik L. ,
  • 90+1', Zeefuik L. 🟨,

Chances of winning


Heracles Almelo
17.8%
Draw
22.5%
AZ Alkmaar
59.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
16.4% 21.4% 62.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

16.1% 21% 63.4%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Heracles Almelo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)
  • AZ Alkmaar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Heracles Almelo than the current prediction. (-1.7%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for AZ Alkmaar than the current prediction. (+3.7%)
  • Heracles Almelo - AZ Alkmaar Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    5.35
    (5.8)
    4.25
    (4.44)
    1.62
    (1.53)
    4%
    (5.3%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
  • What is the prediction for Heracles Almelo - AZ Alkmaar?
  • Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. AZ will win (votes: 19 - 100%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for AZ: 100%100%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): AZ Alkmaar will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
  • Preview Facts
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Heracles won 2.
    • Recent form of Heracles has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).
    • AZ is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).
    • AZ may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • Recently, AZ has had a series of away games.
    • In this match, AZ is seen as the favorite.
    • There will not play in Heracles: Cestic S. (Broken ankle) Engels M. (Hamstring Injury) Reine-Adelaide J. (Knee Injury)
    • There will not play in AZ: Maikuma S. (Knee Injury)
    • There are questionable in AZ: Parrott T. (Inactive)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Heracles won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 15 matches, and goals 26:53. (average 1.3:2.7).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Heracles won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 19:20. (average 2.1:2.2).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Heracles Almelo - AZ Alkmaar were as follows:
    13.04.2025 Heracles Almelo - AZ Alkmaar 1:0
    27.02.2025 Heracles Almelo - AZ Alkmaar 2:3
    01.12.2024 AZ Alkmaar - Heracles Almelo 1:0
    03.04.2024 Heracles Almelo - AZ Alkmaar 5:0
    28.09.2023 AZ Alkmaar - Heracles Almelo 1:1
    Latest results of Heracles Almelo
    Latest results of AZ Alkmaar
    31.08.2025 NAC Breda - AZ Alkmaar 0:1
    28.08.2025 AZ Alkmaar - Levski Sofia 4:1
    21.08.2025 Levski Sofia - AZ Alkmaar 0:2
    17.08.2025 Volendam - AZ Alkmaar 2:2
    14.08.2025 Vaduz - AZ Alkmaar 0:1
    Dutch Eredivisie Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Feyenoord761015:41119
    2PSV751121:111016
    3Ajax743014:7715
    4Groningen850314:11315
    5Nijmegen740321:13812
    6AZ Alkmaar733115:11412
    7Utrecht731313:7610
    8Twente731312:10210
    9Sittard731312:12010
    10G.A. Eagles723213:1309
    11Sparta Rotterdam73048:19-119
    12FC Volendam71429:12-37
    13Telstar72149:13-47
    14Zwolle72147:11-47
    15NAC Breda82158:14-67
    16Heerenveen713310:12-26
    17Excelsior72056:15-96
    18Heracles71066:18-123

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