Result
0:1
25/01/2026 at 06:15 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Eredivisie - Round 20
- Referee: Hensgens R. (Ned)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Africa | DStv Now, SupeSport ESPN 1 |
 Argentina | Disney+ |
 Brazil | Disney+ |
 Bulgaria | Ring, Voyo |
 Canada | Sportsnet+, Sportsnet World |
 Chile | Disney+ |
 Colombia | Disney+ |
 Croatia | SportKlub 3 |
 France | DAZN France |
 Germany | Sportdigital FUSSBALL |
 India | Eurosport, JioTV app |
 Japan | U-NEXT |
 Kenya | Gotv |
 Mexico | Disney+, ESPN 4 |
 Netherlands | Canal+, ESPN 2, ESPN Extra |
 Nigeria | SupeSport ESPN 1 |
 Peru | Disney+ |
 Serbia | Arena Premium 5 |
 Slovakia | Arena sport 1, Sport TV2 |
 South-africa | SupeSport ESPN |
 Switzerland | Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV |
 United-kingdom | Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Usa | ESPN App, ESPN+ |
 Venezuela | Disney+ |
 World | Triller TV+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.13 | 1.15 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 49% | 51% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 5 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 77% (284/371) | 75% (300/399) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.13 | 1.15 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.46 | 1.57 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 7 | 6 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 6 | 7 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 5 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 19 | 13 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 16 | 13 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 77% (284/371) | 75% (300/399) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 41% (33/81) | 38% (28/73) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 61% (67/109) | 61% (59/96) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 15% (4/27) | 9% (1/11) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.07 | 0.37 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 22 | 20 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 13 | 16 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 69% (11/16) | 50% (12/24) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 62 | 62 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 30 | 29 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 13 | 6 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.57 | 0.46 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.57 | 0.46 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 26', Koopmeiners P. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 46', Sin M. ↓, Jensen I. ↑,
- 46', Weslley Patati ↓, Dekker M. ↑,
- 54', Goes W. 🟨,
- 58', Dijkstra E. ↓, Maikuma S. ↑,
- 65', Hatenboer C. ↓, Mertens D. ↑,
- 65', Noslin T. ↓, Lechkar A. ↑,
- 76', Zonneveld M. ↓, Tejan K. ↑,
- 76', Hetli S. ↓, Hamdaoui M. ↑,
- 78', 0 - 1, Jensen I. ⚽, Parrott T. (A),
- 81', Tejan K. 🟨,
- 81', Daal R. ↓, Oufkir A. ↑,
Chances of winning
Telstar
29.5% | Draw
26.1% | AZ Alkmaar
44.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Telstar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.4%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Telstar's performance.AZ Alkmaar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.2%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and AZ Alkmaar might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Telstar than the current prediction. (-7.6%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Telstar that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for AZ Alkmaar than the current prediction. (+10.8%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that AZ Alkmaar could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Telstar - AZ Alkmaar Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.2 ↓
(4.23) |
3.64 ↓
(4) |
2.12 ↑
(1.71) |
5.9%
(7.3%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Telstar - AZ Alkmaar?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH +0.5 - AZ (2.09) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
AZ Alkmaar will win
(11 of 13 users predict this - 84.62%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.01% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): AZ Alkmaar will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 5 high ROI users predict this event. AZ (votes: 5 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 16 in the zone Eredivisie (Relegation) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Conference League ~ Play Offs: )).
- Telstar is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- AZ's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- AZ may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Recently, Telstar has had a series of away games.
- In this match, AZ is considered a favorite.
- There will not play in AZ: Clasie J.
(Ankle Injury)
Kasius D.
(Injury)
Meerdink M.
(Groin Injury)
Mijnans S.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in AZ: Boogaard K.
(Injury)
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Telstar won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 4:9. (average 0.8:1.8).
- Including home matches between the teams, Telstar won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:1. (average 1.5:0.5).
How many head-to-head matches has Telstar won against AZ Alkmaar?
Telstar has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has AZ Alkmaar won against Telstar?
AZ Alkmaar has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Telstar - AZ Alkmaar were as follows:
05.10.2025
AZ Alkmaar
-
Telstar
2:1
Latest results of Telstar
Latest results of AZ Alkmaar
Dutch Eredivisie Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | PSV | 24 | 20 | 2 | 2 | 70:29 | 41 | 62 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 24 | 15 | 3 | 6 | 55:33 | 22 | 48 |
| 3 | Nijmegen | 24 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 59:40 | 19 | 43 |
| 4 | Ajax | 24 | 11 | 10 | 3 | 47:31 | 16 | 43 |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 42:38 | 4 | 39 |
| 6 | Twente | 24 | 9 | 11 | 4 | 39:26 | 13 | 38 |
| 7 | Sparta Rotterdam | 24 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 31:40 | -9 | 37 |
| 8 | Utrecht | 24 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 36:31 | 5 | 31 |
| 9 | Groningen | 24 | 9 | 4 | 11 | 31:32 | -1 | 31 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 24 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 40:42 | -2 | 31 |
| 11 | Sittard | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 36:43 | -7 | 29 |
| 12 | Zwolle | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 34:50 | -16 | 27 |
| 13 | G.A. Eagles | 24 | 5 | 11 | 8 | 37:39 | -2 | 26 |
| 14 | Excelsior | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 26:41 | -15 | 26 |
| 15 | FC Volendam | 24 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 26:39 | -13 | 24 |
| 16 | NAC Breda | 24 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 25:36 | -11 | 22 |
| 17 | Telstar | 24 | 3 | 9 | 12 | 28:41 | -13 | 18 |
| 18 | Heracles | 24 | 5 | 2 | 17 | 31:62 | -31 | 17 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Conference League ~ Play Offs: )
Eredivisie (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Eerste Divisie
