Result
1:2
28/01/2026 at 18:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 1
- Referee: Daronco A. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 Mexico | Fanatiz |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.69 | 1.58 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 59% | 41% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 17 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 85% (399/471) | 79% (260/328) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Red cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.69 | 1.58 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.63 | 2.84 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 17 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 8 | 2 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 10 | 8 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 28 | 15 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 14 | 14 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 85% (399/471) | 79% (260/328) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 62% (31/50) | 44% (17/39) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 68% (96/141) | 63% (64/102) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 35% (6/17) | 8% (1/12) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.15 | 0.24 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 10 | 32 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 14 | 14 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 85% (17/20) | 64% (9/14) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 56 | 47 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 26 | 24 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 13 | 8 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.84 | 1.63 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.84 | 0.63 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 2)
- 12', 1 - 0, Breno Bidon ⚽, Garro R. (A),
- 32', 1 - 1, Jean Lucas ⚽, Gilberto (A),
- 43', Jean Lucas 🟨,
- 45+1', 1 - 2, Willian Jose (Penalty Awarded),
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 49', Erick Pulga 🟨,
- 54', Raniele 🟨,
- 62', Breno Bidon 🟨,
- 63', Depay M. ↓, Vitinho ↑,
- 64', Garro R. ↓, Andre ↑,
- 64', Willian Jose ↓, Dell ↑,
- 64', Carrillo A. ↓, Pereira M. ↑,
- 64', Erick Pulga ↓, Oliveira K. ↑,
- 67', Nicolas Acevedo 🟨,
- 69', Jean Lucas ↓, Erick ↑,
- 78', Nicolas Acevedo ↓, Rodrigo ↑,
- 78', Ademir ↓, Michel Araujo ↑,
- 79', Breno Bidon ↓, Gui Negao ↑,
- 79', Yuri Alberto ↓, Pedro Raul ↑,
- 83', Michel Araujo 🟨,
- 88', Michel Araujo 🟨,
- 90+4', Matheuzinho 🟨,
Chances of winning
Corinthians
42.3% | Draw
28.2% | Bahia
29.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
The chances for Corinthians have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.Bahia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Corinthians than the current prediction. (+1.4%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (-1.3%)
Corinthians - Bahia Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.24 ↑
(2.2) |
3.32 ↑
(3.25) |
3.21 ↑
(3.2) |
5.9%
(7.5%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Corinthians - Bahia?
Users Predictions:
7 users predict this event. Corinthians will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Bahia will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH -0.25 - Corinthians (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Corinthians (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Corinthians won 2.
- Corinthians has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Bahia is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).
- Corinthians may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Corinthians is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
- There will not play in Corinthians: Caca
(Muscle Injury)
Depay M.
(Knee Injury)
Martinez J.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Bahia: Olivera C.
(Ankle Injury)
Sanabria M.
(Knee Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Corinthians won 9 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 29:24. (average 1.5:1.2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Corinthians won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 22:13. (average 2.2:1.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Corinthians won against Bahia?
Corinthians has won 2 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Bahia won against Corinthians?
Bahia has won 2 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Corinthians - Bahia were as follows:
16.08.2025
Corinthians
-
Bahia
1:2
30.03.2025
Bahia
-
Corinthians
1:1
03.12.2024
Corinthians
-
Bahia
3:0
21.07.2024
Bahia
-
Corinthians
0:1
24.11.2023
Corinthians
-
Bahia
1:5
Latest results of Corinthians
Brazilian Serie A Table
2026 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Palmeiras | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12:5 | 7 | 10 |
| 2 | Sao Paulo | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6:2 | 4 | 10 |
| 3 | Corinthians | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5:3 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Bahia | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4:2 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Fluminense | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5:4 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Athletico-PR | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4:3 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Bragantino | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3:3 | 0 | 7 |
| 8 | Gremio | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8:8 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | Chapecoense-SC | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 8:6 | 2 | 5 |
| 10 | Mirassol | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6:5 | 1 | 5 |
| 11 | Flamengo RJ | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:4 | 0 | 4 |
| 12 | Coritiba | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5:6 | -1 | 4 |
| 13 | Santos | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6:8 | -2 | 4 |
| 14 | Botafogo RJ | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7:6 | 1 | 3 |
| 15 | Vitoria | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:7 | -3 | 3 |
| 16 | Remo | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6:8 | -2 | 3 |
| 17 | Atletico-MG | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6:8 | -2 | 2 |
| 18 | Internacional | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3:6 | -3 | 2 |
| 19 | Cruzeiro | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4:9 | -5 | 2 |
| 20 | Vasco | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3:6 | -3 | 1 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet
