Result
1:2
16/08/2025 at 20:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 20
- Referee: Zanovelli P. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 China | K-Ball |
 Germany | Sportdigital FUSSBALL |
 Mexico | Fanatiz |
 Portugal | Canal 11 |
 Russia | MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru |
 Switzerland | Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.26 | 1.06 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 66% | 34% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 25 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 1 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 89% (431/485) | 76% (201/264) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.26 | 1.06 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.55 | 1.15 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 25 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 13 | 2 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 15 | 4 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 10 | 4 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 1 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 37 | 8 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 20 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 89% (431/485) | 76% (201/264) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 81% (48/59) | 35% (18/51) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 79% (153/193) | 53% (19/36) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 26% (11/42) | 0% (0/2) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.99 | 0.15 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 26 | 9 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 15 | 21 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 75% (18/24) | 57% (13/23) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 74 | 65 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 13 | 47 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 4 | 13 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.15 | 2.55 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.85 | 1.55 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 2)
- 2', 0 - 1, Michel Araujo ⚽, Willian Jose (A),
- 28', David Duarte 🟨,
- 31', 1 - 1, Gui Negao ⚽, Raniele (A),
- 43', 1 - 2, Willian Jose (Pen),
- 45+1', Luciano Juba 🟨,
- 45+5', Breno Bidon 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 51', Gilberto ↓, Arias S. ↑,
- 56', Andre Ramalho 🟨,
- 60', Caio Alexandre ↓, Nicolas Acevedo ↑,
- 60', Willian Jose ↓, Cauly ↑,
- 61', Arias S. 🟨,
- 68', Breno Bidon ↓, Talles Magno ↑,
- 68', Gui Negao ↓, Vitinho ↑,
- 71', Ademir ↓, Tiago ↑,
- 71', Kayky ↓, Rodriguez L. ↑,
- 81', Andre Ramalho ↓, Dieguinho ↑,
- 87', Kayke ↓, Bahia ↑,
- 87', Matheus Bidu ↓, Charles Rigon ↑,
Chances of winning
Corinthians
37.6% | Draw
31.1% | Bahia
31.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Corinthians has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Corinthians's form might have worsened.Bahia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Corinthians than the current prediction. (+6%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Corinthians, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (-4.1%)
Corinthians - Bahia Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.52 ↑
(2.2) |
3.05 ↓
(3.2) |
3.07 ↓
(3.4) |
5.1%
(6.1%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Corinthians - Bahia?
Users Predictions:
14 users predict this event. Corinthians will win (votes: 3 - 21.4%). Bahia will win (votes: 4 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 23.8% – 76.2%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 4 high ROI users predict this event. Corinthians (votes: 1 - 25%). Bahia (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 13 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Corinthians won 2.
- Recent performances by Corinthians have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Bahia is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
- There will not play in Corinthians: Angel Romero
(Red Card)
Angileri F.
(Yellow Cards)
Caca
(Yellow Cards)
Carrillo A.
(Ankle Injury)
Depay M.
(Muscle Injury)
Hugo
(Hernia)
Maycon
(Thigh Injury)
- There will not play in Bahia: Erick
(Hamstring Injury)
Erick Pulga
(Thigh Injury)
Everton Ribeiro
(Yellow Cards)
Fred Lippert
(Injury)
Kanu
(Muscle Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Corinthians won 10 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 30:22. (average 1.5:1.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Corinthians won 8 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 23:11. (average 2.3:1.1).
How many head-to-head matches has Corinthians won against Bahia?
Corinthians has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Bahia won against Corinthians?
Bahia has won 1 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Corinthians - Bahia were as follows:
30.03.2025
Bahia
-
Corinthians
1:1
03.12.2024
Corinthians
-
Bahia
3:0
21.07.2024
Bahia
-
Corinthians
0:1
24.11.2023
Corinthians
-
Bahia
1:5
22.07.2023
Bahia
-
Corinthians
0:0
Latest results of Corinthians
Brazilian Serie A Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Flamengo RJ | 25 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 50:12 | 38 | 55 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 24 | 16 | 4 | 4 | 39:19 | 20 | 52 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 26 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 39:19 | 20 | 51 |
| 4 | Botafogo RJ | 27 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 37:23 | 14 | 43 |
| 5 | Mirassol | 25 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 42:25 | 17 | 43 |
| 6 | Bahia | 25 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 33:30 | 3 | 40 |
| 7 | Fluminense | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 33:31 | 2 | 38 |
| 8 | Sao Paulo | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 29:25 | 4 | 38 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 32:38 | -6 | 33 |
| 10 | Gremio | 26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 28:32 | -4 | 33 |
| 11 | Internacional | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 32:38 | -6 | 32 |
| 12 | Ceara | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 23:24 | -1 | 31 |
| 13 | Vasco | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 38:38 | 0 | 30 |
| 14 | Corinthians | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 26:32 | -6 | 30 |
| 15 | Atletico-MG | 25 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 22:29 | -7 | 29 |
| 16 | Santos | 25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 25:35 | -10 | 28 |
| 17 | Vitoria | 26 | 5 | 10 | 11 | 21:38 | -17 | 25 |
| 18 | Juventude | 25 | 6 | 5 | 14 | 20:46 | -26 | 23 |
| 19 | Fortaleza | 25 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 24:40 | -16 | 21 |
| 20 | Sport Recife | 24 | 2 | 9 | 13 | 18:37 | -19 | 15 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet
