Result
1:2
15/09/2025 at 19:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 23
- Referee: Rodrigues F. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 China | K-Ball |
 Mexico | Fanatiz |
 Portugal | Canal 11 |
 Russia | MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru |
 Spain | Movistar+ Vamos Bar 1 |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.53 | 0.78 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 62% | 38% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (425/486) | 78% (229/292) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.53 | 0.78 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.05 | 1.47 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 4 | 7 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 9 | 3 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 27 | 17 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (425/486) | 78% (229/292) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 62% (26/42) | 39% (16/41) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 79% (133/169) | 67% (60/89) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 31% (9/29) | 11% (2/19) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.65 | 0.38 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 12 | 21 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 11 | 12 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 56% (10/18) | 70% (16/23) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 57 | 53 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 36 | 35 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 9 | 6 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.47 | 1.05 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.53 | 0.05 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 2', Christian 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 2)
- 49', Matheus Henrique 🟨,
- 55', David Duarte 🟨,
- 65', Kayky ↓, Michel Araujo ↑,
- 66', 1 - 0, Jean Lucas ⚽, Willian Jose (A),
- 71', Kaio Jorge ↓, Gabriel Barbosa ↑,
- 72', Christian ↓, Arroyo K. ↑,
- 72', Wanderson ↓, Sinisterra L. ↑,
- 72', Sanabria M. ↓, Cauly ↑,
- 77', 1 - 1, Sinisterra L. ⚽,
- 78', Kaiki ↓, Kaua Prates ↑,
- 78', Everton Ribeiro ↓, Rodrigo ↑,
- 78', Willian Jose ↓, Rezende ↑,
- 78', Nicolas Acevedo ↓, Ze Guilherme ↑,
- 85', Matheus Pereira ↓, Bolasie Y. ↑,
- 86', 1 - 2, Gabriel Barbosa ⚽, William Furtado (A),
- 87', Gabriel Barbosa 🟨,
Chances of winning
Bahia
37.6% | Draw
30.7% | Cruzeiro
31.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Bahia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)Cruzeiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (+2.4%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cruzeiro than the current prediction. (-2.6%)
Bahia - Cruzeiro Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.5 ↑
(2.37) |
3.09 ↑
(3.06) |
2.99 ↓
(3.24) |
5.8%
(5.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Bahia - Cruzeiro?
Users Predictions:
12 users predict this event. Bahia will win (votes: 3 - 25%). Cruzeiro will win (votes: 7 - 58.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cruzeiro: 30.4% – 86.2%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Bahia (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Cruzeiro (votes: 2 - 66.7%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bahia won 1.
- Recent performances by Bahia have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Cruzeiro is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- Cruzeiro may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
- There will not play in Bahia: Ademir
(Inactive)
Caio Alexandre
(Hamstring Injury)
Erick
(Hamstring Injury)
Erick Pulga
(Inactive)
Kanu
(Muscle Injury)
Luiz Gustavo
(Inactive)
Ruan Pablo
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Cruzeiro: Fagner
(Broken Leg)
Janderson
(Knee Injury)
Lucas Silva
(Suspended)
- In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Bahia won 4 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 18:26. (average 0.9:1.4).
- Including home matches between the teams, Bahia won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:9. (average 1.2:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Bahia won against Cruzeiro?
Bahia has won 1 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Cruzeiro won against Bahia?
Cruzeiro has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Bahia - Cruzeiro were as follows:
17.04.2025
Cruzeiro
-
Bahia
3:0
18.10.2024
Cruzeiro
-
Bahia
1:1
23.06.2024
Bahia
-
Cruzeiro
4:1
25.10.2023
Cruzeiro
-
Bahia
3:0
10.06.2023
Bahia
-
Cruzeiro
2:2
Latest results of Cruzeiro
Brazilian Serie A Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Palmeiras | 28 | 19 | 4 | 5 | 53:26 | 27 | 61 |
| 2 | Flamengo RJ | 29 | 18 | 7 | 4 | 56:16 | 40 | 61 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 29 | 16 | 8 | 5 | 42:21 | 21 | 56 |
| 4 | Mirassol | 30 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 52:31 | 21 | 55 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 14 | 7 | 9 | 40:34 | 6 | 49 |
| 6 | Botafogo RJ | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 39:26 | 13 | 46 |
| 7 | Fluminense | 29 | 13 | 5 | 11 | 36:35 | 1 | 44 |
| 8 | Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 33:33 | 0 | 41 |
| 9 | Vasco | 29 | 11 | 6 | 12 | 46:41 | 5 | 39 |
| 10 | Corinthians | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 32:35 | -3 | 39 |
| 11 | Bragantino | 29 | 10 | 6 | 13 | 34:44 | -10 | 36 |
| 12 | Atletico-MG | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 27:32 | -5 | 36 |
| 13 | Gremio | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 30:37 | -7 | 36 |
| 14 | Ceara | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 27:28 | -1 | 35 |
| 15 | Internacional | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 35:43 | -8 | 35 |
| 16 | Santos | 28 | 8 | 7 | 13 | 28:40 | -12 | 31 |
| 17 | Vitoria | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 27:44 | -17 | 31 |
| 18 | Fortaleza | 29 | 7 | 6 | 16 | 27:44 | -17 | 27 |
| 19 | Juventude | 29 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 23:53 | -30 | 26 |
| 20 | Sport Recife | 29 | 2 | 11 | 16 | 22:46 | -24 | 17 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet
