Bahia vs Cruzeiro – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Brazilian Serie A Bahia - Cruzeiro
Result
1:2
15/09/2025 at 19:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Serie A Betano - Round 23
  • Referee: Rodrigues F. (Bra)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
brazilBrazilAmazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
chinaChinaK-Ball
mexicoMexicoFanatiz
portugalPortugalCanal 11
russiaRussiaMATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
spainSpainMovistar+ Vamos Bar 1
usaUsaFanatiz

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.530.78
Ball Possession
62%38%
Total shots
1310
Shots on target
53
Big Chances
12
Corner Kicks
65
Passes
87% (425/486)78% (229/292)
Yellow Cards
13
Expected Goals (xG)
0.530.78
xG on target (xGOT)
1.051.47
Total shots
1310
Shots on target
53
Shots off target
45
Blocked Shots
42
Shots inside the Box
47
Shots outside the Box
93
Hit the Woodwork
01
Big Chances
12
Corner Kicks
65
Touches in opposition box
2717
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
10
Free Kicks
1211
Passes
87% (425/486)78% (229/292)
Long passes
62% (26/42)39% (16/41)
Passes in final third
79% (133/169)67% (60/89)
Crosses
31% (9/29)11% (2/19)
Expected assists (xA)
0.650.38
Throw-ins
1221
Fouls
1112
Tackles
56% (10/18)70% (16/23)
Duels won
5753
Clearances
3635
Interceptions
96
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
14
xGOT faced
1.471.05
Goals prevented
-0.530.05

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 2', Christian 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 2)
  • 49', Matheus Henrique 🟨,
  • 55', David Duarte 🟨,
  • 65', Kayky , Michel Araujo ,
  • 66', 1 - 0, Jean Lucas , Willian Jose (A),
  • 71', Kaio Jorge , Gabriel Barbosa ,
  • 72', Christian , Arroyo K. ,
  • 72', Wanderson , Sinisterra L. ,
  • 72', Sanabria M. , Cauly ,
  • 77', 1 - 1, Sinisterra L. ,
  • 78', Kaiki , Kaua Prates ,
  • 78', Everton Ribeiro , Rodrigo ,
  • 78', Willian Jose , Rezende ,
  • 78', Nicolas Acevedo , Ze Guilherme ,
  • 85', Matheus Pereira , Bolasie Y. ,
  • 86', 1 - 2, Gabriel Barbosa , William Furtado (A),
  • 87', Gabriel Barbosa 🟨,

Chances of winning


Bahia
37.6%
Draw
30.7%
Cruzeiro
31.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
39.9% 30.9% 29.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40% 30.8% 29.1%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Bahia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)
  • Cruzeiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (+2.4%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cruzeiro than the current prediction. (-2.6%)
  • Bahia - Cruzeiro Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.5
    (2.37)
    3.09
    (3.06)
    2.99
    (3.24)
    5.8%
    (5.8%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
  • What is the prediction for Bahia - Cruzeiro?
  • Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Bahia will win (votes: 3 - 25%). Cruzeiro will win (votes: 7 - 58.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Cruzeiro: 30.4%86.2%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Bahia (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Cruzeiro (votes: 2 - 66.7%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bahia won 1.
    • Recent performances by Bahia have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).
    • Cruzeiro is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).
    • Cruzeiro may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
    • There will not play in Bahia: Ademir (Inactive) Caio Alexandre (Hamstring Injury) Erick (Hamstring Injury) Erick Pulga (Inactive) Kanu (Muscle Injury) Luiz Gustavo (Inactive) Ruan Pablo (Inactive)
    • There will not play in Cruzeiro: Fagner (Broken Leg) Janderson (Knee Injury) Lucas Silva (Suspended)
    • In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Bahia won 4 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 18:26. (average 0.9:1.4).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Bahia won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:9. (average 1.2:1).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Bahia - Cruzeiro were as follows:
    17.04.2025 Cruzeiro - Bahia 3:0
    18.10.2024 Cruzeiro - Bahia 1:1
    23.06.2024 Bahia - Cruzeiro 4:1
    25.10.2023 Cruzeiro - Bahia 3:0
    10.06.2023 Bahia - Cruzeiro 2:2
    Latest results of Bahia
    10.09.2025 Fluminense - Bahia 2:0
    06.09.2025 Bahia - Confiança 5:0
    03.09.2025 Confiança - Bahia 1:4
    31.08.2025 Mirassol - Bahia 5:1
    28.08.2025 Bahia - Fluminense 1:0
    Latest results of Cruzeiro
    30.08.2025 Cruzeiro - São Paulo 1:0
    18.08.2025 Mirassol - Cruzeiro 1:1
    Brazilian Serie A Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Flamengo RJ25167250:123855
    2Palmeiras24164439:192052
    3Cruzeiro26156539:192051
    4Botafogo RJ27127837:231443
    5Mirassol251110442:251743
    6Bahia25117733:30340
    7Fluminense25115933:31238
    8Sao Paulo26108829:25438
    9Bragantino271061133:38-536
    10Gremio27891028:33-533
    11Internacional26881032:38-632
    12Ceara25871023:24-131
    13Vasco26861238:38030
    14Corinthians26791026:32-630
    15Atletico-MG25781022:29-729
    16Santos25771125:35-1028
    17Vitoria265101121:38-1725
    18Juventude25651420:46-2623
    19Fortaleza25561424:40-1621
    20Sport Recife24291318:37-1915

          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
          Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet