Result
1:2
15/09/2025 at 19:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 23
- Referee: Rodrigues F. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
---|
Brazil | Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping |
China | K-Ball |
Mexico | Fanatiz |
Portugal | Canal 11 |
Russia | MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru |
Spain | Movistar+ Vamos Bar 1 |
Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
---|
Expected Goals (xG) |
---|
0.53 | 0.78 |
Ball Possession |
---|
62% | 38% |
Total shots |
---|
13 | 10 |
Shots on target |
---|
5 | 3 |
Big Chances |
---|
1 | 2 |
Corner Kicks |
---|
6 | 5 |
Passes |
---|
87% (425/486) | 78% (229/292) |
Yellow Cards |
---|
1 | 3 |
Expected Goals (xG) |
---|
0.53 | 0.78 |
xG on target (xGOT) |
---|
1.05 | 1.47 |
Total shots |
---|
13 | 10 |
Shots on target |
---|
5 | 3 |
Shots off target |
---|
4 | 5 |
Blocked Shots |
---|
4 | 2 |
Shots inside the Box |
---|
4 | 7 |
Shots outside the Box |
---|
9 | 3 |
Hit the Woodwork |
---|
0 | 1 |
Big Chances |
---|
1 | 2 |
Corner Kicks |
---|
6 | 5 |
Touches in opposition box |
---|
27 | 17 |
Accurate through passes |
---|
0 | 0 |
Offsides |
---|
1 | 0 |
Free Kicks |
---|
12 | 11 |
Passes |
---|
87% (425/486) | 78% (229/292) |
Long passes |
---|
62% (26/42) | 39% (16/41) |
Passes in final third |
---|
79% (133/169) | 67% (60/89) |
Crosses |
---|
31% (9/29) | 11% (2/19) |
Expected assists (xA) |
---|
0.65 | 0.38 |
Throw-ins |
---|
12 | 21 |
Fouls |
---|
11 | 12 |
Tackles |
---|
56% (10/18) | 70% (16/23) |
Duels won |
---|
57 | 53 |
Clearances |
---|
36 | 35 |
Interceptions |
---|
9 | 6 |
Errors leading to shot |
---|
0 | 0 |
Errors leading to goal |
---|
0 | 0 |
Goalkeeper Saves |
---|
1 | 4 |
xGOT faced |
---|
1.47 | 1.05 |
Goals prevented |
---|
-0.53 | 0.05 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 2', Christian 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 2)
- 49', Matheus Henrique 🟨,
- 55', David Duarte 🟨,
- 65', Kayky ↓, Michel Araujo ↑,
- 66', 1 - 0, Jean Lucas ⚽, Willian Jose (A),
- 71', Kaio Jorge ↓, Gabriel Barbosa ↑,
- 72', Christian ↓, Arroyo K. ↑,
- 72', Wanderson ↓, Sinisterra L. ↑,
- 72', Sanabria M. ↓, Cauly ↑,
- 77', 1 - 1, Sinisterra L. ⚽,
- 78', Kaiki ↓, Kaua Prates ↑,
- 78', Everton Ribeiro ↓, Rodrigo ↑,
- 78', Willian Jose ↓, Rezende ↑,
- 78', Nicolas Acevedo ↓, Ze Guilherme ↑,
- 85', Matheus Pereira ↓, Bolasie Y. ↑,
- 86', 1 - 2, Gabriel Barbosa ⚽, William Furtado (A),
- 87', Gabriel Barbosa 🟨,
Chances of winning
Bahia 37.6% | Draw 30.7% | Cruzeiro 31.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Bahia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)Cruzeiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (+2.4%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cruzeiro than the current prediction. (-2.6%)
Bahia - Cruzeiro Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now (Initially) |
2.5 ↑ (2.37) |
3.09 ↑ (3.06) |
2.99 ↓ (3.24) |
5.8% (5.8%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Bahia - Cruzeiro?
Users Predictions:
12 users predict this event. Bahia will win (votes: 3 - 25%). Cruzeiro will win (votes: 7 - 58.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cruzeiro: 30.4% – 86.2%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Bahia (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Cruzeiro (votes: 2 - 66.7%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bahia won 1.
- Recent performances by Bahia have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Cruzeiro is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- Cruzeiro may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
- There will not play in Bahia: Ademir
(Inactive)
Caio Alexandre
(Hamstring Injury)
Erick
(Hamstring Injury)
Erick Pulga
(Inactive)
Kanu
(Muscle Injury)
Luiz Gustavo
(Inactive)
Ruan Pablo
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Cruzeiro: Fagner
(Broken Leg)
Janderson
(Knee Injury)
Lucas Silva
(Suspended)
- In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Bahia won 4 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 18:26. (average 0.9:1.4).
- Including home matches between the teams, Bahia won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:9. (average 1.2:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Bahia won against Cruzeiro?
Bahia has won 1 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Cruzeiro won against Bahia?
Cruzeiro has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Bahia - Cruzeiro were as follows:
17.04.2025
Cruzeiro
-
Bahia
3:0
18.10.2024
Cruzeiro
-
Bahia
1:1
23.06.2024
Bahia
-
Cruzeiro
4:1
25.10.2023
Cruzeiro
-
Bahia
3:0
10.06.2023
Bahia
-
Cruzeiro
2:2
Latest results of Cruzeiro
Brazilian Serie A Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
1 | Flamengo RJ | 25 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 50:12 | 38 | 55 |
2 | Palmeiras | 24 | 16 | 4 | 4 | 39:19 | 20 | 52 |
3 | Cruzeiro | 26 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 39:19 | 20 | 51 |
4 | Botafogo RJ | 27 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 37:23 | 14 | 43 |
5 | Mirassol | 25 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 42:25 | 17 | 43 |
6 | Bahia | 25 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 33:30 | 3 | 40 |
7 | Fluminense | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 33:31 | 2 | 38 |
8 | Sao Paulo | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 29:25 | 4 | 38 |
9 | Bragantino | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 33:38 | -5 | 36 |
10 | Gremio | 27 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 28:33 | -5 | 33 |
11 | Internacional | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 32:38 | -6 | 32 |
12 | Ceara | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 23:24 | -1 | 31 |
13 | Vasco | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 38:38 | 0 | 30 |
14 | Corinthians | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 26:32 | -6 | 30 |
15 | Atletico-MG | 25 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 22:29 | -7 | 29 |
16 | Santos | 25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 25:35 | -10 | 28 |
17 | Vitoria | 26 | 5 | 10 | 11 | 21:38 | -17 | 25 |
18 | Juventude | 25 | 6 | 5 | 14 | 20:46 | -26 | 23 |
19 | Fortaleza | 25 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 24:40 | -16 | 21 |
20 | Sport Recife | 24 | 2 | 9 | 13 | 18:37 | -19 | 15 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet