Result
1:1
19/07/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 15
- Referee: Sampaio W. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 China | K-Ball |
 Ecuador | El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol |
 Mexico | Fanatiz |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.39 | 2.07 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 35% | 65% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 17 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 74% (196/264) | 86% (437/510) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.39 | 2.07 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.78 | 1.16 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 17 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 8 | 9 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 10 | 12 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 25 | 30 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 16 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 74% (196/264) | 86% (437/510) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 30% (16/53) | 56% (30/54) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 63% (53/84) | 74% (90/121) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 17% (4/24) | 28% (5/18) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.01 | 1.26 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 11 | 16 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 16 | 6 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 40% (6/15) | 47% (7/15) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 41 | 61 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 20 | 32 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.16 | 0.78 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.16 | -0.22 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 18', Diogo Barbosa 🟨,
- 29', 1 - 0, Marinho ⚽,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 46', Rodriguez L. ↓, Cauly ↑,
- 51', Erick Pulga 🟨,
- 51', Gilberto 🟨,
- 51', Breno Lopes 🟨,
- 59', Lucero J. 🟨,
- 63', Ramos S. 🟨,
- 65', Pereira M. 🟨,
- 68', Pochettino T. ↓, Emmanuel Martinez ↑,
- 68', Britez E. ↓, Mancuso E. ↑,
- 69', Marinho ↓, Herrera J. ↑,
- 75', Jean Lucas ↓, Michel Araujo ↑,
- 75', Erick Pulga ↓, Kayky ↑,
- 76', Caio Alexandre ↓, Rodrigo ↑,
- 78', Emmanuel Martinez 🟨,
- 79', Lucero J. ↓, Bareiro A. ↑,
- 80', 1 - 1, Rodrigo ⚽,
- 84', Breno Lopes ↓, Yago Pikachu ↑,
- 89', Everton Ribeiro ↓, Nicolas Acevedo ↑,
Chances of winning
Fortaleza
32.3% | Draw
30.5% | Bahia
37.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Fortaleza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Fortaleza's form might have worsened.Bahia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (+4.3%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (-3.9%)
Fortaleza - Bahia Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.93 ↑
(2.5) |
3.13 ↑
(3.1) |
2.59 ↓
(2.88) |
4.7%
(7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Fortaleza - Bahia?
Users Predictions:
26 users predict this event. Fortaleza will win (votes: 18 - 69.2%). Bahia will win (votes: 2 - 7.7%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 23.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fortaleza: 51.5% – 86.9%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 8 high ROI users predict this event. Fortaleza (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Bahia (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Tie (votes: 2 - 25%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fortaleza won 1.
- Fortaleza is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- Bahia is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- Bahia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Recently, Bahia has had a series of home games.
- In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
- There will not play in Fortaleza: Bruno Pacheco
(Tendon Injury)
David Luiz
(Thigh Injury)
Moises
(Thigh Injury)
- There will not play in Bahia: Erick
(Hamstring Injury)
Kanu
(Muscle Injury)
Rezende
(Back Injury)
- There are questionable in Fortaleza: Bruninho
(Inactive)
Gustavo Mancha
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Bahia: Willian Jose
(Ankle Injury)
- We predict that Bahia will win today's game, with odds of 2.86.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Fortaleza won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 25:29. (average 1.3:1.5).
- Including home matches between the teams, Fortaleza won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 16:14. (average 1.5:1.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Fortaleza won against Bahia?
Fortaleza has won 2 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Bahia won against Fortaleza?
Bahia has won 3 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Fortaleza - Bahia were as follows:
09.07.2025
Bahia
-
Fortaleza
2:1
21.09.2024
Fortaleza
-
Bahia
4:1
13.06.2024
Bahia
-
Fortaleza
1:0
21.10.2023
Bahia
-
Fortaleza
2:0
03.06.2023
Fortaleza
-
Bahia
0:0
Latest results of Fortaleza
Brazilian Serie A Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Palmeiras | 28 | 19 | 4 | 5 | 53:26 | 27 | 61 |
| 2 | Flamengo RJ | 29 | 18 | 7 | 4 | 56:16 | 40 | 61 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 29 | 16 | 8 | 5 | 42:21 | 21 | 56 |
| 4 | Mirassol | 30 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 52:31 | 21 | 55 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 14 | 7 | 9 | 40:34 | 6 | 49 |
| 6 | Botafogo RJ | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 39:26 | 13 | 46 |
| 7 | Fluminense | 29 | 13 | 5 | 11 | 36:35 | 1 | 44 |
| 8 | Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 33:33 | 0 | 41 |
| 9 | Vasco | 29 | 11 | 6 | 12 | 46:41 | 5 | 39 |
| 10 | Corinthians | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 32:35 | -3 | 39 |
| 11 | Bragantino | 29 | 10 | 6 | 13 | 34:44 | -10 | 36 |
| 12 | Atletico-MG | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 27:32 | -5 | 36 |
| 13 | Gremio | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 30:37 | -7 | 36 |
| 14 | Ceara | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 27:28 | -1 | 35 |
| 15 | Internacional | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 35:43 | -8 | 35 |
| 16 | Santos | 28 | 8 | 7 | 13 | 28:40 | -12 | 31 |
| 17 | Vitoria | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 27:44 | -17 | 31 |
| 18 | Fortaleza | 29 | 7 | 6 | 16 | 27:44 | -17 | 27 |
| 19 | Juventude | 29 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 23:53 | -30 | 26 |
| 20 | Sport Recife | 29 | 2 | 11 | 16 | 22:46 | -24 | 17 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet
