Fortaleza vs Bahia – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Brazilian Serie A Fortaleza - Bahia
Result
1:1
19/07/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Serie A Betano - Round 15
  • Referee: Sampaio W. (Bra)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
brazilBrazilAmazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
chinaChinaK-Ball
ecuadorEcuadorEl Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
mexicoMexicoFanatiz
usaUsaFanatiz

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.392.07
Ball Possession
35%65%
Total shots
1517
Shots on target
24
Big Chances
35
Corner Kicks
93
Passes
74% (196/264)86% (437/510)
Yellow Cards
53
Expected Goals (xG)
1.392.07
xG on target (xGOT)
0.781.16
Total shots
1517
Shots on target
24
Shots off target
89
Blocked Shots
54
Shots inside the Box
1012
Shots outside the Box
55
Hit the Woodwork
11
Big Chances
35
Corner Kicks
93
Touches in opposition box
2530
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
32
Free Kicks
616
Passes
74% (196/264)86% (437/510)
Long passes
30% (16/53)56% (30/54)
Passes in final third
63% (53/84)74% (90/121)
Crosses
17% (4/24)28% (5/18)
Expected assists (xA)
1.011.26
Throw-ins
1116
Fouls
166
Tackles
40% (6/15)47% (7/15)
Duels won
4161
Clearances
2032
Interceptions
75
Errors leading to shot
11
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
31
xGOT faced
1.160.78
Goals prevented
0.16-0.22

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 18', Diogo Barbosa 🟨,
  • 29', 1 - 0, Marinho ,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 1)
  • 46', Rodriguez L. , Cauly ,
  • 51', Erick Pulga 🟨,
  • 51', Gilberto 🟨,
  • 51', Breno Lopes 🟨,
  • 59', Lucero J. 🟨,
  • 63', Ramos S. 🟨,
  • 65', Pereira M. 🟨,
  • 68', Pochettino T. , Emmanuel Martinez ,
  • 68', Britez E. , Mancuso E. ,
  • 69', Marinho , Herrera J. ,
  • 75', Jean Lucas , Michel Araujo ,
  • 75', Erick Pulga , Kayky ,
  • 76', Caio Alexandre , Rodrigo ,
  • 78', Emmanuel Martinez 🟨,
  • 79', Lucero J. , Bareiro A. ,
  • 80', 1 - 1, Rodrigo ,
  • 84', Breno Lopes , Yago Pikachu ,
  • 89', Everton Ribeiro , Nicolas Acevedo ,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Fortaleza
32.3%
Draw
30.5%
Bahia
37.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
37.4% 30.2% 32.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.6% 29.6% 33.2%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Fortaleza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Fortaleza's form might have worsened.
  • Bahia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (+4.3%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (-3.9%)
  • Fortaleza - Bahia Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.93
    (2.5)
    3.13
    (3.1)
    2.59
    (2.88)
    4.7%
    (7%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
  • What is the prediction for Fortaleza - Bahia?
  • Users Predictions: 26 users predict this event. Fortaleza will win (votes: 18 - 69.2%). Bahia will win (votes: 2 - 7.7%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 23.1%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Fortaleza: 51.5%86.9%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 8 high ROI users predict this event. Fortaleza (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Bahia (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fortaleza won 1.
    • Fortaleza is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).
    • Bahia is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).
    • Bahia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • Recently, Bahia has had a series of home games.
    • In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
    • There will not play in Fortaleza: Bruno Pacheco (Tendon Injury) David Luiz (Thigh Injury) Moises (Thigh Injury)
    • There will not play in Bahia: Erick (Hamstring Injury) Kanu (Muscle Injury) Rezende (Back Injury)
    • There are questionable in Fortaleza: Bruninho (Inactive) Gustavo Mancha (Injury)
    • There are questionable in Bahia: Willian Jose (Ankle Injury)
    • We predict that Bahia will win today's game, with odds of 2.86.
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Fortaleza won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 25:29. (average 1.3:1.5).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Fortaleza won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 16:14. (average 1.5:1.3).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Fortaleza - Bahia were as follows:
    09.07.2025 Bahia - Fortaleza 2:1
    21.09.2024 Fortaleza - Bahia 4:1
    13.06.2024 Bahia - Fortaleza 1:0
    21.10.2023 Bahia - Fortaleza 2:0
    03.06.2023 Fortaleza - Bahia 0:0
    Latest results of Fortaleza
    13.07.2025 Fortaleza - Ceará 0:1
    09.07.2025 Bahia - Fortaleza 2:1
    12.06.2025 Fortaleza - Santos 2:3
    01.06.2025 Flamengo - Fortaleza 5:0
    29.05.2025 Racing - Fortaleza 1:0
    Latest results of Bahia
    17.07.2025 Bahia - Internacional RS Postponed
    15.07.2025 Bahia - América de Cali 0:0
    12.07.2025 Bahia - Atlético Mineiro 2:1
    09.07.2025 Bahia - Fortaleza 2:1
    Brazilian Serie A Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Flamengo RJ16113230:62436
    2Cruzeiro17104328:111734
    3Palmeiras15102319:12732
    4Bahia1685320:13729
    5Mirassol1677227:161128
    6Bragantino1783620:20027
    7Botafogo RJ1575318:81026
    8Fluminense1672718:20-223
    9Sao Paulo1757518:19-122
    10Ceara1663716:16021
    11Internacional1656517:20-321
    12Corinthians1756616:20-421
    13Atletico-MG1555516:16020
    14Gremio1755716:23-720
    15Vitoria1738614:18-417
    16Vasco1643918:23-515
    17Santos1643915:21-615
    18Fortaleza1635817:23-614
    19Juventude15321010:32-2211
    20Sport Recife1606109:25-166

          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
          Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet