Result
1:1
19/07/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 15
- Referee: Sampaio W. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
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Brazil | Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping |
China | K-Ball |
Ecuador | El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol |
Mexico | Fanatiz |
Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
---|
Expected Goals (xG) |
---|
1.39 | 2.07 |
Ball Possession |
---|
35% | 65% |
Total shots |
---|
15 | 17 |
Shots on target |
---|
2 | 4 |
Big Chances |
---|
3 | 5 |
Corner Kicks |
---|
9 | 3 |
Passes |
---|
74% (196/264) | 86% (437/510) |
Yellow Cards |
---|
5 | 3 |
Expected Goals (xG) |
---|
1.39 | 2.07 |
xG on target (xGOT) |
---|
0.78 | 1.16 |
Total shots |
---|
15 | 17 |
Shots on target |
---|
2 | 4 |
Shots off target |
---|
8 | 9 |
Blocked Shots |
---|
5 | 4 |
Shots inside the Box |
---|
10 | 12 |
Shots outside the Box |
---|
5 | 5 |
Hit the Woodwork |
---|
1 | 1 |
Big Chances |
---|
3 | 5 |
Corner Kicks |
---|
9 | 3 |
Touches in opposition box |
---|
25 | 30 |
Accurate through passes |
---|
0 | 0 |
Offsides |
---|
3 | 2 |
Free Kicks |
---|
6 | 16 |
Passes |
---|
74% (196/264) | 86% (437/510) |
Long passes |
---|
30% (16/53) | 56% (30/54) |
Passes in final third |
---|
63% (53/84) | 74% (90/121) |
Crosses |
---|
17% (4/24) | 28% (5/18) |
Expected assists (xA) |
---|
1.01 | 1.26 |
Throw-ins |
---|
11 | 16 |
Fouls |
---|
16 | 6 |
Tackles |
---|
40% (6/15) | 47% (7/15) |
Duels won |
---|
41 | 61 |
Clearances |
---|
20 | 32 |
Interceptions |
---|
7 | 5 |
Errors leading to shot |
---|
1 | 1 |
Errors leading to goal |
---|
0 | 0 |
Goalkeeper Saves |
---|
3 | 1 |
xGOT faced |
---|
1.16 | 0.78 |
Goals prevented |
---|
0.16 | -0.22 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 18', Diogo Barbosa 🟨,
- 29', 1 - 0, Marinho ⚽,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 46', Rodriguez L. ↓, Cauly ↑,
- 51', Erick Pulga 🟨,
- 51', Gilberto 🟨,
- 51', Breno Lopes 🟨,
- 59', Lucero J. 🟨,
- 63', Ramos S. 🟨,
- 65', Pereira M. 🟨,
- 68', Pochettino T. ↓, Emmanuel Martinez ↑,
- 68', Britez E. ↓, Mancuso E. ↑,
- 69', Marinho ↓, Herrera J. ↑,
- 75', Jean Lucas ↓, Michel Araujo ↑,
- 75', Erick Pulga ↓, Kayky ↑,
- 76', Caio Alexandre ↓, Rodrigo ↑,
- 78', Emmanuel Martinez 🟨,
- 79', Lucero J. ↓, Bareiro A. ↑,
- 80', 1 - 1, Rodrigo ⚽,
- 84', Breno Lopes ↓, Yago Pikachu ↑,
- 89', Everton Ribeiro ↓, Nicolas Acevedo ↑,
Chances of winning
Fortaleza 32.3% | Draw 30.5% | Bahia 37.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Fortaleza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Fortaleza's form might have worsened.Bahia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (+4.3%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (-3.9%)
Fortaleza - Bahia Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now (Initially) |
2.93 ↑ (2.5) |
3.13 ↑ (3.1) |
2.59 ↓ (2.88) |
4.7% (7%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Fortaleza - Bahia?
Users Predictions:
26 users predict this event. Fortaleza will win (votes: 18 - 69.2%). Bahia will win (votes: 2 - 7.7%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 23.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fortaleza: 51.5% – 86.9%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 8 high ROI users predict this event. Fortaleza (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Bahia (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Tie (votes: 2 - 25%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fortaleza won 1.
- Fortaleza is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- Bahia is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- Bahia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Recently, Bahia has had a series of home games.
- In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
- There will not play in Fortaleza: Bruno Pacheco
(Tendon Injury)
David Luiz
(Thigh Injury)
Moises
(Thigh Injury)
- There will not play in Bahia: Erick
(Hamstring Injury)
Kanu
(Muscle Injury)
Rezende
(Back Injury)
- There are questionable in Fortaleza: Bruninho
(Inactive)
Gustavo Mancha
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Bahia: Willian Jose
(Ankle Injury)
- We predict that Bahia will win today's game, with odds of 2.86.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Fortaleza won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 25:29. (average 1.3:1.5).
- Including home matches between the teams, Fortaleza won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 16:14. (average 1.5:1.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Fortaleza won against Bahia?
Fortaleza has won 2 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Bahia won against Fortaleza?
Bahia has won 3 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Fortaleza - Bahia were as follows:
09.07.2025
Bahia
-
Fortaleza
2:1
21.09.2024
Fortaleza
-
Bahia
4:1
13.06.2024
Bahia
-
Fortaleza
1:0
21.10.2023
Bahia
-
Fortaleza
2:0
03.06.2023
Fortaleza
-
Bahia
0:0
Latest results of Fortaleza
Brazilian Serie A Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
1 | Flamengo RJ | 16 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 30:6 | 24 | 36 |
2 | Cruzeiro | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 28:11 | 17 | 34 |
3 | Palmeiras | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 19:12 | 7 | 32 |
4 | Bahia | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 20:13 | 7 | 29 |
5 | Mirassol | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 27:16 | 11 | 28 |
6 | Bragantino | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 20:20 | 0 | 27 |
7 | Botafogo RJ | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 18:8 | 10 | 26 |
8 | Fluminense | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 18:20 | -2 | 23 |
9 | Sao Paulo | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 18:19 | -1 | 22 |
10 | Ceara | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 16:16 | 0 | 21 |
11 | Internacional | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 17:20 | -3 | 21 |
12 | Corinthians | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 16:20 | -4 | 21 |
13 | Atletico-MG | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 16:16 | 0 | 20 |
14 | Gremio | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 16:23 | -7 | 20 |
15 | Vitoria | 17 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 14:18 | -4 | 17 |
16 | Vasco | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 18:23 | -5 | 15 |
17 | Santos | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 15:21 | -6 | 15 |
18 | Fortaleza | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 17:23 | -6 | 14 |
19 | Juventude | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 10:32 | -22 | 11 |
20 | Sport Recife | 16 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 9:25 | -16 | 6 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet