Result
2:3
20/11/2025 at 16:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 34
- Referee: Klein R. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Argentina | Flow Eventos |
 Brazil | Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 China | K-Ball |
 Mexico | Fanatiz |
 North-central-america | Flow Sports 1 Caribbean |
 Paraguay | Flow Eventos |
 United-arab-emirates | Dubai Sports 1 |
 Uruguay | Flow |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 3.02 | 1.88 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 71% | 29% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 24 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 5 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 89% (457/516) | 64% (143/222) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 3.02 | 1.88 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.47 | 2.20 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 24 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 9 | 2 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 15 | 7 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 9 | 4 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 61 | 19 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 14 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 89% (457/516) | 64% (143/222) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 68% (15/22) | 32% (20/62) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 84% (168/201) | 52% (32/62) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 30% (12/40) | 43% (3/7) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.88 | 1.53 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 14 | 15 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 6 | 14 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 78% (7/9) | 69% (9/13) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 57 | 42 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 16 | 34 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 4 | 10 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 2 | 7 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.20 | 2.47 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.80 | 0.47 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 2)
- 30', 0 - 1, Bareiro A. ⚽, Herrera J. (A),
- 32', Bareiro A. 🟨,
- 36', 0 - 2, Herrera J. ⚽, Pochettino T. (A),
- 45+3', Ademir 🟨,
- 2nd Half (2 - 1)
- 46', Erick ↓, Tiago ↑,
- 46', Caio Alexandre ↓, Nicolas Acevedo ↑,
- 60', David Duarte ↓, Everton Ribeiro ↑,
- 65', 1 - 2, Willian Jose (Pen),
- 71', Bareiro A. ↓, Deyverson ↑,
- 71', Pereira M. ↓, Pablo Roberto ↑,
- 71', Pochettino T. ↓, Allanzinho ↑,
- 75', 1 - 3, Deyverson ⚽,
- 77', Diogo Barbosa 🟨,
- 78', Breno Lopes ↓, Matheus Rossetto ↑,
- 78', Gilberto ↓, Cauly ↑,
- 84', Brenno 🟨,
- 86', Herrera J. ↓, Yago Pikachu ↑,
- 88', 2 - 3, Tiago ⚽, Ademir (A),
- 90+2', Ademir ↓, Kayky ↑,
- 90+3', Pierre 🟨,
- 90+5', Bruno Pacheco 🟨,
Chances of winning
Bahia
61.6% | Draw
21.7% | Fortaleza
16.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Bahia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)Fortaleza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (-1.1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (+1.5%)
Bahia - Fortaleza Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.55 ↓
(1.6) |
4.4 ↑
(4.2) |
5.6 ↑
(5.08) |
5.3%
(6%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Bahia - Fortaleza?
Users Predictions:
27 users predict this event. Bahia will win (votes: 20 - 74.1%). Fortaleza will win (votes: 3 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 14.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bahia: 57.6% – 90.6%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- 1X2, 1st Half - Bahia (2.04) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH +1.75 - Fortaleza (1.45) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Bahia will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Bahia (votes: 9 - 81.8%). Fortaleza (votes: 2 - 18.2%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
Preview Facts
- One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: ) and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bahia won 3.
- Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
- Bahia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Bahia is a strong favorite.
- There will not play in Bahia: Gabriel Xavier
(Calf Injury)
Gilberto
(Thigh Injury)
Kayky
(Thigh Injury)
Michel Araujo
(Yellow Cards)
Ruan Pablo
(International duty)
Sanabria M.
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Fortaleza: Benevenuto
(Hamstring Injury)
Joao Ricardo
(Shoulder Injury)
Lucas Sasha
(Yellow Cards)
Marinho
(Ankle Injury)
Rodrigo
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Fortaleza: Weverson
(Hamstring Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Bahia won 8 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 28:25. (average 1.4:1.3).
- Including home matches between the teams, Bahia won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 15:9. (average 1.7:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Bahia won against Fortaleza?
Bahia has won 3 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Fortaleza won against Bahia?
Fortaleza has won 2 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Bahia - Fortaleza were as follows:
19.07.2025
Fortaleza
-
Bahia
1:1
09.07.2025
Bahia
-
Fortaleza
2:1
21.09.2024
Fortaleza
-
Bahia
4:1
13.06.2024
Bahia
-
Fortaleza
1:0
21.10.2023
Bahia
-
Fortaleza
2:0
Latest results of Fortaleza
Brazilian Serie A Table
| | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Palmeiras | 23 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 40:19 | 21 | 48 |
| 2 | Flamengo RJ | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 44:19 | 25 | 45 |
| 3 | Athletico-PR | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 31:20 | 11 | 41 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 23 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 34:28 | 6 | 38 |
| 5 | Cruzeiro | 23 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 32:32 | 0 | 36 |
| 6 | Bahia | 23 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 32:28 | 4 | 34 |
| 7 | Bragantino | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 27:23 | 4 | 32 |
| 8 | Atletico-MG | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 30:27 | 3 | 32 |
| 9 | Corinthians | 23 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 25:22 | 3 | 32 |
| 10 | Coritiba | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 28:30 | -2 | 31 |
| 11 | Botafogo RJ | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 35:34 | 1 | 30 |
| 12 | Vitoria | 23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 23:33 | -10 | 29 |
| 13 | Sao Paulo | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 27:26 | 1 | 27 |
| 14 | Santos | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 32:35 | -3 | 25 |
| 15 | Gremio | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 24:30 | -6 | 25 |
| 16 | Internacional | 23 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 24:28 | -4 | 24 |
| 17 | Mirassol | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 25:35 | -10 | 23 |
| 18 | Remo | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 27:37 | -10 | 23 |
| 19 | Vasco | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 23:34 | -11 | 22 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-SC | 22 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 23:46 | -23 | 11 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B
