Result
1:2
11/04/2026 at 17:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 11
- Referee: Zanovelli P. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 Ecuador | Canal del Futbol |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.15 | 1.93 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 42% | 58% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 8 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 85% (306/362) | 87% (458/526) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Red cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.15 | 1.93 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.91 | 3.50 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 8 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 8 | 8 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 8 | 6 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 20 | 17 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 14 | 20 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 85% (306/362) | 87% (458/526) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 60% (18/30) | 51% (27/53) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 72% (76/105) | 78% (97/125) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 14% (3/21) | 18% (3/17) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.67 | 0.76 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 16 | 14 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 20 | 14 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 33% (4/12) | 75% (12/16) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 41 | 47 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 17 | 18 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 17 | 11 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 6 | 6 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 3.50 | 0.91 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 1.50 | 0.91 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 14', 1 - 0, David Duarte (Own goal),
- 41', Reinaldo ↓, Victor Luis ↑,
- 45+3', Edson Carioca 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 2)
- 46', Andre Luis ↓, Nathan Fogaca ↑,
- 46', Caio Alexandre ↓, Gilberto ↑,
- 57', Jose Aldo 🟨,
- 60', Edson Carioca ↓, Alesson ↑,
- 60', Eduardo ↓, Shaylon ↑,
- 60', Erick Pulga ↓, Ademir ↑,
- 60', Everaldo ↓, Willian Jose ↑,
- 61', Victor Luis 🟨,
- 65', 1 - 1, Luciano Juba (Penalty Awarded),
- 69', Ademir ↓, Sanabria M. ↑,
- 76', Jose Aldo ↓, Gabriel Pires ↑,
- 79', Jean Lucas 🟨,
- 80', Everton Ribeiro ↓, Rodrigo ↑,
- 89', 1 - 2, Sanabria M. ⚽,
- 90+5', Rafael Guanaes 🟥,
- 90+7', Eduardo 🟥,
Chances of winning
Mirassol
42.3% | Draw
28.7% | Bahia
29% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Mirassol has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)Bahia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mirassol than the current prediction. (-0.3%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (+2.1%)
Mirassol - Bahia Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.26 ↓
(2.44) |
3.31 ↓
(3.45) |
3.23 ↑
(2.84) |
5.5%
(5.2%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Mirassol - Bahia?
Users Predictions:
6 users predict this event. Mirassol will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Bahia will win (votes: 3 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Bahia (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )).
- Mirassol has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Bahia has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Bahia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Mirassol might have a minor edge in this game.
- There will not play in Bahia: Ronaldo Strada
(Injury)
Ruan Pablo
(Ankle Injury)
- There are questionable in Mirassol: Igor Carius
(Hamstring Injury)
- There are questionable in Bahia: Kanu
(Hamstring Injury)
Sanabria M.
(Inactive)
- In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Mirassol won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:2. (average 3:1).
- Including home match between the teams, Mirassol won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:1.
How many head-to-head matches has Mirassol won against Bahia?
Mirassol has won 1 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Bahia won against Mirassol?
Bahia has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Mirassol - Bahia were as follows:
31.08.2025
Mirassol
-
Bahia
5:1
13.04.2025
Bahia
-
Mirassol
1:1
Latest results of Mirassol
Brazilian Serie A Table
2026 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Palmeiras | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 21:10 | 11 | 26 |
| 2 | Flamengo RJ | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 18:10 | 8 | 20 |
| 3 | Sao Paulo | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 15:9 | 6 | 20 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 18:13 | 5 | 20 |
| 5 | Bahia | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15:10 | 5 | 20 |
| 6 | Athletico-PR | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 17:13 | 4 | 19 |
| 7 | Coritiba | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 13:12 | 1 | 16 |
| 8 | Atletico-MG | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 14:13 | 1 | 14 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 11:12 | -1 | 14 |
| 10 | Vitoria | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 11:14 | -3 | 14 |
| 11 | Botafogo RJ | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 18:21 | -3 | 13 |
| 12 | Gremio | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 14:14 | 0 | 13 |
| 13 | Vasco | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 16:17 | -1 | 13 |
| 14 | Internacional | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 9:10 | -1 | 13 |
| 15 | Santos | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 14:16 | -2 | 13 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 8:11 | -3 | 11 |
| 17 | Cruzeiro | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 14:21 | -7 | 10 |
| 18 | Remo | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 11:18 | -7 | 8 |
| 19 | Chapecoense-SC | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 10:18 | -8 | 8 |
| 20 | Mirassol | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11:16 | -5 | 6 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet
