Result
1:2
05/04/2026 at 18:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 10
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Argentina | Flow Eventos |
 Brazil | Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 Ecuador | Canal del Futbol |
 Israel | Sport 3 |
 Kosovo | Arena Premium 3 |
 Mexico | Azteca Deportes |
 North-central-america | Flow Sports 1 Caribbean |
 Paraguay | Flow Eventos |
 Portugal | Canal 11 |
 Serbia | Arena Premium 3 |
 Spain | M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar Plus+ |
 Uruguay | Flow |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.22 | 0.27 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 59% | 41% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 19 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (427/490) | 82% (282/344) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.22 | 0.27 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.87 | 1.06 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 19 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 9 | 0 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 13 | 4 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 30 | 11 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 17 | 18 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (427/490) | 82% (282/344) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 47% (17/36) | 47% (20/43) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 73% (110/150) | 72% (61/85) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 29% (8/28) | 14% (2/14) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.66 | 0.24 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 20 | 12 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 18 | 17 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 45% (9/20) | 69% (11/16) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 65 | 45 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 17 | 35 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 14 | 8 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.06 | 0.87 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.06 | -0.13 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 21', Abel Ferreira 🟨,
- 40', Luciano Juba 🟨,
- 42', 0 - 1, Arias J. ⚽, Lopez J. (A),
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 51', Arias J. 🟨,
- 55', Giay A. 🟨,
- 58', 1 - 1, David Duarte ⚽, Everton Ribeiro (A),
- 60', Mauricio ↓, Lucas Evangelista ↑,
- 60', Lopez J. ↓, Luighi ↑,
- 60', Arias J. ↓, Sosa R. ↑,
- 64', Allan Elias ↓, Felipe Anderson ↑,
- 69', Olivera C. ↓, Ademir ↑,
- 69', Everaldo ↓, Willian Jose ↑,
- 69', Caio Alexandre ↓, Erick ↑,
- 74', Everton Ribeiro ↓, Michel Araujo ↑,
- 81', Arthur Gabriel ↓, Khellven ↑,
- 85', Khellven 🟨,
- 86', Erick Pulga ↓, Dell ↑,
- 88', 1 - 2, Ramos S. (Own goal),
- 90+1', Rogerio Ceni 🟨,
- 90+1', Gabriel Xavier 🟨,
- 90+2', Luighi 🟨,
Chances of winning
Bahia
36.3% | Draw
30.2% | Palmeiras
33.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Bahia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)Palmeiras has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Palmeiras might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (-4%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (+5.2%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Palmeiras could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Bahia - Palmeiras Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.61 ↓
(2.9) |
3.11 ↓
(3.2) |
2.83 ↑
(2.35) |
5.7%
(8.3%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Bahia - Palmeiras?
Users Predictions:
13 users predict this event. Bahia will win (votes: 3 - 23.1%). Palmeiras will win (votes: 3 - 23.1%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 53.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 26.7% – 80.9%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Palmeiras (votes: 1 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- AH 0 - Bahia (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Bahia (votes: 1 - 50%). Palmeiras (votes: 1 - 50%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bahia won 2.
- Right now, both teams are showing solid form.
- Bahia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
- There will not play in Bahia: Kanu
(Hamstring Injury)
Ronaldo Strada
(Injury)
Ruan Pablo
(Ankle Injury)
- There will not play in Palmeiras: Figueiredo
(Injury)
Paulinho
(Leg Injury)
Piquerez J.
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Bahia won 3 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 16:28. (average 0.8:1.4).
- Including home matches between the teams, Bahia won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 8:10. (average 0.8:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Bahia won against Palmeiras?
Bahia has won 3 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Palmeiras won against Bahia?
Palmeiras has won 3 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Bahia - Palmeiras were as follows:
28.09.2025
Bahia
-
Palmeiras
1:0
27.04.2025
Palmeiras
-
Bahia
0:1
20.11.2024
Bahia
-
Palmeiras
1:2
07.07.2024
Palmeiras
-
Bahia
2:0
28.10.2023
Palmeiras
-
Bahia
1:0
Latest results of Palmeiras
Brazilian Serie A Table
2026 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Palmeiras | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 21:10 | 11 | 26 |
| 2 | Flamengo RJ | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 18:10 | 8 | 20 |
| 3 | Sao Paulo | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 15:9 | 6 | 20 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 18:13 | 5 | 20 |
| 5 | Bahia | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15:10 | 5 | 20 |
| 6 | Athletico-PR | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 17:13 | 4 | 19 |
| 7 | Coritiba | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 13:12 | 1 | 16 |
| 8 | Atletico-MG | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 14:13 | 1 | 14 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 11:12 | -1 | 14 |
| 10 | Vitoria | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 11:14 | -3 | 14 |
| 11 | Botafogo RJ | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 18:21 | -3 | 13 |
| 12 | Gremio | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 14:14 | 0 | 13 |
| 13 | Vasco | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 16:17 | -1 | 13 |
| 14 | Internacional | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 9:10 | -1 | 13 |
| 15 | Santos | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 14:16 | -2 | 13 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 8:11 | -3 | 11 |
| 17 | Cruzeiro | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 14:21 | -7 | 10 |
| 18 | Remo | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 11:18 | -7 | 8 |
| 19 | Chapecoense-SC | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 10:18 | -8 | 8 |
| 20 | Mirassol | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11:16 | -5 | 6 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B
