Result
1:0
28/09/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 25
- Referee: Daronco A. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 China | K-Ball |
 Croatia | Arena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go |
 Ecuador | El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol |
 Israel | Sport 2 |
 Mexico | Fanatiz |
 Portugal | Canal 11 |
 Spain | M+ Liga de Campeones 2, Movistar Plus+ |
 Turkey | Spor Smart 2 |
 United-arab-emirates | Dubai Sports 1 |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.55 | 0.57 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 53% | 47% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (324/397) | 73% (250/343) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.55 | 0.57 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.42 | 0.31 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 15 | 19 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 18 | 13 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (324/397) | 73% (250/343) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 28% (13/47) | 46% (25/54) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 75% (85/114) | 64% (87/136) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 15% (2/13) | 16% (4/25) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.37 | 0.51 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 13 | 24 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 13 | 18 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 57% (13/23) | 60% (15/25) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 70 | 70 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 33 | 13 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 10 | 6 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.31 | 0.42 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.31 | -0.58 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 19', Lucas Evangelista ↓, Moreno A. ↑,
- 27', Giay A. 🟨,
- 29', Piquerez J. ↓, Jefte ↑,
- 45', Nicolas Acevedo 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 54', Gabriel Xavier 🟨,
- 61', Gilberto 🟨,
- 69', Lopez J. 🟨,
- 69', Rodrigo 🟨,
- 70', Kayky ↓, Ademir ↑,
- 70', Rodrigo ↓, Michel Araujo ↑,
- 70', Willian Jose ↓, Tiago ↑,
- 74', Pereira A. ↓, Allan ↑,
- 74', Vitor Roque ↓, Torres F. ↑,
- 74', Felipe Anderson ↓, Sosa R. ↑,
- 78', 1 - 0, Ademir ⚽, Ronaldo Strada (A),
- 79', Ademir 🟨,
- 88', Nicolas Acevedo ↓, Rezende ↑,
- 90+6', Sanabria M. ↓, Ze Guilherme ↑,
Chances of winning
Bahia
24.3% | Draw
29.6% | Palmeiras
46% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Bahia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.4%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Bahia's form might have worsened.Palmeiras has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Palmeiras's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (+10.5%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Bahia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (-10.1%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Palmeiras, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Bahia - Palmeiras Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.93 ↑
(2.7) |
3.21 ↑
(3.2) |
2.13 ↓
(2.6) |
3.6%
(6.7%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Bahia - Palmeiras?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%).
Users Predictions:
Palmeiras will win
(21 of 23 users predict this - 91.3%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.78% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Palmeiras will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bahia won 2.
- Bahia is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Palmeiras is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- Palmeiras will hold a modest advantage in this match.
- There will not play in Bahia: Caio Alexandre
(Hamstring Injury)
David Duarte
(Inactive)
Erick
(Hamstring Injury)
Erick Pulga
(Hamstring Injury)
Jean Lucas
(Red Card)
Joao Paulo
(Knee Injury)
Kanu
(Muscle Injury)
Ruan Pablo
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Palmeiras: Micael
(Yellow Cards)
Paulinho
(Leg Injury)
- There are questionable in Bahia: Ademir
(Hamstring Injury)
- There are questionable in Palmeiras: Gomez G.
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Bahia won 2 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 15:29. (average 0.8:1.5).
- Including home matches between the teams, Bahia won 1 match, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 7:11. (average 0.7:1.1).
How many head-to-head matches has Bahia won against Palmeiras?
Bahia has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Palmeiras won against Bahia?
Palmeiras has won 3 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Bahia - Palmeiras were as follows:
27.04.2025
Palmeiras
-
Bahia
0:1
20.11.2024
Bahia
-
Palmeiras
1:2
07.07.2024
Palmeiras
-
Bahia
2:0
28.10.2023
Palmeiras
-
Bahia
1:0
21.06.2023
Bahia
-
Palmeiras
1:0
Latest results of Palmeiras
Brazilian Serie A Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Flamengo RJ | 25 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 50:12 | 38 | 55 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 24 | 16 | 4 | 4 | 39:19 | 20 | 52 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 26 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 39:19 | 20 | 51 |
| 4 | Botafogo RJ | 27 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 37:23 | 14 | 43 |
| 5 | Mirassol | 25 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 42:25 | 17 | 43 |
| 6 | Bahia | 25 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 33:30 | 3 | 40 |
| 7 | Fluminense | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 33:31 | 2 | 38 |
| 8 | Sao Paulo | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 29:25 | 4 | 38 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 32:38 | -6 | 33 |
| 10 | Gremio | 26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 28:32 | -4 | 33 |
| 11 | Internacional | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 32:38 | -6 | 32 |
| 12 | Ceara | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 23:24 | -1 | 31 |
| 13 | Vasco | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 38:38 | 0 | 30 |
| 14 | Corinthians | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 26:32 | -6 | 30 |
| 15 | Atletico-MG | 25 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 22:29 | -7 | 29 |
| 16 | Santos | 25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 25:35 | -10 | 28 |
| 17 | Vitoria | 26 | 5 | 10 | 11 | 21:38 | -17 | 25 |
| 18 | Juventude | 25 | 6 | 5 | 14 | 20:46 | -26 | 23 |
| 19 | Fortaleza | 25 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 24:40 | -16 | 21 |
| 20 | Sport Recife | 24 | 2 | 9 | 13 | 18:37 | -19 | 15 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet
