Vasco da Gama vs Bahia – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Brazilian Serie A Vasco da Gama - Bahia
Result
3:1
24/09/2025 at 18:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Serie A Betano - Round 16

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.820.75
Ball Possession
67%33%
Total shots
199
Shots on target
63
Big Chances
51
Corner Kicks
62
Passes
89% (449/505)80% (207/259)
Yellow Cards
02
Red Cards
01
Expected Goals (xG)
1.820.75
xG on target (xGOT)
1.520.72
Total shots
199
Shots on target
63
Shots off target
94
Blocked Shots
42
Shots inside the Box
126
Shots outside the Box
73
Hit the Woodwork
10
Headed Goals
20
Big Chances
51
Corner Kicks
62
Touches in opposition box
2912
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
11
Free Kicks
1320
Passes
89% (449/505)80% (207/259)
Long passes
55% (17/31)32% (14/44)
Passes in final third
77% (103/133)62% (29/47)
Crosses
35% (11/31)29% (2/7)
Expected assists (xA)
1.670.55
Throw-ins
1210
Fouls
2013
Tackles
61% (11/18)67% (12/18)
Duels won
5751
Clearances
1330
Interceptions
47
Errors leading to shot
10
Errors leading to goal
10
Goalkeeper Saves
24
xGOT faced
0.721.52
Goals prevented
-0.28-0.48

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 1)
  • 31', 0 - 1, Sanabria M. ,
  • 36', Jean Lucas 🟥,
  • 39', Lucas Freitas , David ,
  • 44', Willian Jose , Nicolas Acevedo ,
  • 44', Gilberto 🟨,
  • 45+1', 1 - 1, Coutinho ,
  • 2nd Half (2 - 0)
  • 46', Gilberto , Arias S. ,
  • 60', 2 - 1, Rodriguez J. , Moreira N. (A),
  • 63', Sanabria M. 🟨,
  • 67', Everton Ribeiro , Rodrigo ,
  • 67', Michel Araujo , Tiago ,
  • 76', Sanabria M. , Iago Borduchi ,
  • 77', 3 - 1, Luciano Juba (Own goal),
  • 82', Coutinho , Matheus Franca ,
  • 82', Moreira N. , Lucas Oliveira ,
  • 86', Gomez C. A. , Garre B. ,
  • 86', Hugo Moura , Mateus Carvalho ,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Vasco da Gama
40.4%
Draw
29.4%
Bahia
30.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
36.9% 28.5% 34.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.2% 28.7% 34.3%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Vasco da Gama has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)
  • Bahia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vasco da Gama than the current prediction. (-3.2%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (+4%)
  • Vasco da Gama - Bahia Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.38
    (2.57)
    3.24
    (3.32)
    3.1
    (2.73)
    5.1%
    (5.7%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
  • What is the prediction for Vasco da Gama - Bahia?
  • Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Vasco will win (votes: 6 - 54.5%). Bahia will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Vasco: 25.1%83.9%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Vasco (votes: 1 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 16 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vasco won 1.
    • Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
    • The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
    • There will not play in Vasco: Adson (Inactive) Joao Victor (Yellow Cards) Thiago Mendes (Inactive)
    • There will not play in Bahia: Erick (Hamstring Injury) Gilberto (Yellow Cards) Kanu (Muscle Injury) Ramos S. (Yellow Cards) Rezende (Back Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Vasco won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 19:30. (average 1:1.5).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Vasco won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:11. (average 1.5:1.1).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Vasco da Gama - Bahia were as follows:
    28.10.2024 Vasco da Gama - Bahia 3:2
    26.06.2024 Bahia - Vasco da Gama 2:1
    03.09.2023 Bahia - Vasco da Gama 1:1
    01.05.2023 Vasco da Gama - Bahia 0:1
    28.08.2022 Bahia - Vasco da Gama 2:1
    Latest results of Vasco da Gama
    Latest results of Bahia
    20.09.2025 Ceará - Bahia 1:1
    15.09.2025 Bahia - Cruzeiro 1:2
    10.09.2025 Fluminense - Bahia 2:0
    06.09.2025 Bahia - Confiança 5:0
    03.09.2025 Confiança - Bahia 1:4
    Brazilian Serie A Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Flamengo RJ25167250:123855
    2Palmeiras24164439:192052
    3Cruzeiro26156539:192051
    4Botafogo RJ27127837:231443
    5Mirassol251110442:251743
    6Bahia25117733:30340
    7Fluminense25115933:31238
    8Sao Paulo26108829:25438
    9Bragantino271061133:38-536
    10Gremio27891028:33-533
    11Internacional26881032:38-632
    12Ceara25871023:24-131
    13Vasco26861238:38030
    14Corinthians26791026:32-630
    15Atletico-MG25781022:29-729
    16Santos25771125:35-1028
    17Vitoria265101121:38-1725
    18Juventude25651420:46-2623
    19Fortaleza25561424:40-1621
    20Sport Recife24291318:37-1915

          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
          Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet