Vasco da Gama vs Bahia – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Brazilian Serie A Vasco da Gama - Bahia
Result
3:1
24/09/2025 at 18:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Serie A Betano - Round 16

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.820.75
Ball Possession
67%33%
Total shots
199
Shots on target
63
Big Chances
51
Corner Kicks
62
Passes
89% (449/505)80% (207/259)
Yellow Cards
02
Red Cards
01
Expected Goals (xG)
1.820.75
xG on target (xGOT)
1.520.72
Total shots
199
Shots on target
63
Shots off target
94
Blocked Shots
42
Shots inside the Box
126
Shots outside the Box
73
Hit the Woodwork
10
Headed Goals
20
Big Chances
51
Corner Kicks
62
Touches in opposition box
2912
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
11
Free Kicks
1320
Passes
89% (449/505)80% (207/259)
Long passes
55% (17/31)32% (14/44)
Passes in final third
77% (103/133)62% (29/47)
Crosses
35% (11/31)29% (2/7)
Expected assists (xA)
1.670.55
Throw-ins
1210
Fouls
2013
Tackles
61% (11/18)67% (12/18)
Duels won
5751
Clearances
1330
Interceptions
47
Errors leading to shot
10
Errors leading to goal
10
Goalkeeper Saves
24
xGOT faced
0.721.52
Goals prevented
-0.28-0.48

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 1)
  • 31', 0 - 1, Sanabria M. ,
  • 36', Jean Lucas 🟥,
  • 39', Lucas Freitas , David ,
  • 44', Willian Jose , Nicolas Acevedo ,
  • 44', Gilberto 🟨,
  • 45+1', 1 - 1, Coutinho ,
  • 2nd Half (2 - 0)
  • 46', Gilberto , Arias S. ,
  • 60', 2 - 1, Rodriguez J. , Moreira N. (A),
  • 63', Sanabria M. 🟨,
  • 67', Everton Ribeiro , Rodrigo ,
  • 67', Michel Araujo , Tiago ,
  • 76', Sanabria M. , Iago Borduchi ,
  • 77', 3 - 1, Luciano Juba (Own goal),
  • 82', Coutinho , Matheus Franca ,
  • 82', Moreira N. , Lucas Oliveira ,
  • 86', Gomez C. A. , Garre B. ,
  • 86', Hugo Moura , Mateus Carvalho ,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Vasco da Gama
40.4%
Draw
29.4%
Bahia
30.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
36.9% 28.5% 34.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.2% 28.7% 34.3%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Vasco da Gama has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)
  • Bahia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vasco da Gama than the current prediction. (-3.2%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (+4%)
  • Vasco da Gama - Bahia Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.38
    (2.57)
    3.24
    (3.32)
    3.1
    (2.73)
    5.1%
    (5.7%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
    What is the prediction for Vasco da Gama - Bahia?
  • Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Vasco will win (votes: 6 - 54.5%). Bahia will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Vasco: 25.1%83.9%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Vasco (votes: 1 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 16 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vasco won 1.
    • Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
    • The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
    • There will not play in Vasco: Adson (Inactive) Joao Victor (Yellow Cards) Thiago Mendes (Inactive)
    • There will not play in Bahia: Erick (Hamstring Injury) Gilberto (Yellow Cards) Kanu (Muscle Injury) Ramos S. (Yellow Cards) Rezende (Back Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Vasco won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 19:30. (average 1:1.5).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Vasco won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:11. (average 1.5:1.1).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Vasco da Gama - Bahia were as follows:
    28.10.2024 Vasco da Gama - Bahia 3:2
    26.06.2024 Bahia - Vasco da Gama 2:1
    03.09.2023 Bahia - Vasco da Gama 1:1
    01.05.2023 Vasco da Gama - Bahia 0:1
    28.08.2022 Bahia - Vasco da Gama 2:1
    Latest results of Vasco da Gama
    Latest results of Bahia
    20.09.2025 Ceará - Bahia 1:1
    15.09.2025 Bahia - Cruzeiro 1:2
    10.09.2025 Fluminense - Bahia 2:0
    06.09.2025 Bahia - Confiança 5:0
    03.09.2025 Confiança - Bahia 1:4
    Brazilian Serie A Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Palmeiras28194553:262761
    2Flamengo RJ28187356:154161
    3Cruzeiro29168542:212156
    4Mirassol301510552:312155
    5Bahia30147940:34649
    6Botafogo RJ29137939:261346
    7Fluminense291351136:35144
    8Sao Paulo301181133:33041
    9Vasco291161246:41539
    10Corinthians301091132:35-339
    11Bragantino291061334:44-1036
    12Atletico-MG29991127:32-536
    13Gremio29991130:37-736
    14Ceara29981227:28-135
    15Internacional30981335:43-835
    16Santos28871328:40-1231
    17Vitoria307101327:44-1731
    18Juventude29751723:53-3026
    19Fortaleza28661626:44-1824
    20Sport Recife292111622:46-2417

          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
          Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet