Result
2:1
16/10/2025 at 20:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 28
- Referee: Daronco A. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 China | K-Ball |
 Ecuador | El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol |
 Mexico | Fanatiz |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.11 | 0.83 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 34% | 66% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 72% (164/227) | 89% (401/453) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 7 | 2 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.11 | 0.83 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.44 | 0.89 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 8 | 3 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 1 | 8 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 13 | 15 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 20 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 72% (164/227) | 89% (401/453) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 40% (21/53) | 53% (26/49) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 52% (41/79) | 82% (83/101) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 20% (3/15) | 20% (3/15) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.44 | 0.88 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 17 | 19 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 20 | 8 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 61% (11/18) | 65% (13/20) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 47 | 64 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 17 | 32 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.89 | 1.44 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.11 | -0.56 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 26', 1 - 0, Renato Kayzer (Pen),
- 37', Renato Kayzer 🟨,
- 41', 1 - 1, Tiago ⚽, Nicolas Acevedo (A),
- 45+1', Camutanga 🟨,
- 45+2', Ronald Lopes 🟨,
- 45+4', Ademir 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Ronald Lopes ↓, Dudu ↑,
- 46', Erick 🟨,
- 60', Cantalapiedra A. ↓, Matheuzinho ↑,
- 64', 2 - 1, Caceres R. ⚽,
- 66', Sanabria M. ↓, Kayky ↑,
- 66', Nicolas Acevedo ↓, Iago Borduchi ↑,
- 72', Renato Kayzer ↓, Lopez R. ↑,
- 74', Rodrigo ↓, Cauly ↑,
- 74', Rezende ↓, Michel Araujo ↑,
- 75', Cauly 🟨,
- 81', Ademir ↓, Ruan Pablo ↑,
- 85', Erick ↓, Osvaldo ↑,
- 90', Baralhas 🟨,
- 90+6', Dudu 🟨,
- 90+7', Dudu 🟨,
Chances of winning
Vitória Salvador
35.8% | Draw
32.2% | Bahia
32% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Vitória Salvador has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)Bahia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Bahia might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vitória Salvador than the current prediction. (-2.4%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (+5.2%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Bahia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Vitória Salvador - Bahia Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.67 ↓
(2.87) |
2.94 ↓
(3.23) |
2.99 ↑
(2.51) |
4.9%
(5.6%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Vitória Salvador - Bahia?
Users Predictions:
19 users predict this event. Vitória will win (votes: 3 - 15.8%). Bahia will win (votes: 9 - 47.4%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 36.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bahia: 24.9% – 69.9%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Bahia (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vitória won 0.
- Vitória is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Bahia has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Vitória may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
- There will not play in Vitória: Carlinhos
(Red Card)
Fabricio
(Hamstring Injury)
Fintelman
(Hip Injury)
Jamerson
(Ankle Injury)
Lucas Halter
(Red Card)
- There will not play in Bahia: Caio Alexandre
(Hamstring Injury)
Erick
(Hamstring Injury)
Erick Pulga
(Hamstring Injury)
Gilberto
(Yellow Cards)
Joao Paulo
(Knee Injury)
Ramos S.
(Injury)
Ruan Pablo
(Inactive)
Willian Jose
(Yellow Cards)
- There are questionable in Vitória: Camutanga
(Ankle Injury)
Ramos R.
(Injury)
Renato Kayzer
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Vitória won 4 matches, drew 10 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 21:24. (average 1.1:1.2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Vitória won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 14:12. (average 1.8:1.5).
How many head-to-head matches has Vitória Salvador won against Bahia?
Vitória Salvador has won 2 of their last 11 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Bahia won against Vitória Salvador?
Bahia has won 4 of their last 11 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Vitória Salvador - Bahia were as follows:
18.05.2025
Bahia
-
Vitória Salvador
2:1
23.03.2025
Vitória Salvador
-
Bahia
1:1
01.02.2025
Bahia
-
Vitória Salvador
0:0
11.08.2024
Bahia
-
Vitória Salvador
2:0
21.04.2024
Vitória Salvador
-
Bahia
2:2
Latest results of Vitória Salvador
Brazilian Serie A Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Palmeiras | 28 | 19 | 4 | 5 | 53:26 | 27 | 61 |
| 2 | Flamengo RJ | 28 | 18 | 7 | 3 | 56:15 | 41 | 61 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 29 | 16 | 8 | 5 | 42:21 | 21 | 56 |
| 4 | Mirassol | 30 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 52:31 | 21 | 55 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 14 | 7 | 9 | 40:34 | 6 | 49 |
| 6 | Botafogo RJ | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 39:26 | 13 | 46 |
| 7 | Fluminense | 29 | 13 | 5 | 11 | 36:35 | 1 | 44 |
| 8 | Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 33:33 | 0 | 41 |
| 9 | Vasco | 29 | 11 | 6 | 12 | 46:41 | 5 | 39 |
| 10 | Corinthians | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 32:35 | -3 | 39 |
| 11 | Bragantino | 29 | 10 | 6 | 13 | 34:44 | -10 | 36 |
| 12 | Atletico-MG | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 27:32 | -5 | 36 |
| 13 | Gremio | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 30:37 | -7 | 36 |
| 14 | Ceara | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 27:28 | -1 | 35 |
| 15 | Internacional | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 35:43 | -8 | 35 |
| 16 | Santos | 28 | 8 | 7 | 13 | 28:40 | -12 | 31 |
| 17 | Vitoria | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 27:44 | -17 | 31 |
| 18 | Juventude | 29 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 23:53 | -30 | 26 |
| 19 | Fortaleza | 28 | 6 | 6 | 16 | 26:44 | -18 | 24 |
| 20 | Sport Recife | 29 | 2 | 11 | 16 | 22:46 | -24 | 17 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet
