Result
1:2
01/02/2026 at 10:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Super League - Round 22
- Referee: Wolfensberger S. (Sui)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Croatia | SportKlub 10 |
 North-macedonia | MaxTV GO |
 Serbia | Arena Sport 3 |
 Ukraine | Sport 1 |
 World | Sport 1 Baltic |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.89 | 0.59 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 55% | 45% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 18 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 2 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (330/419) | 69% (235/342) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.89 | 0.59 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.01 | 1.00 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 18 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 4 | 7 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 11 | 8 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 22 | 31 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 24 | 8 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (330/419) | 69% (235/342) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 43% (23/53) | 33% (22/66) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 71% (87/123) | 53% (62/117) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 30% (6/20) | 19% (3/16) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.79 | 0.51 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 21 | 18 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 8 | 24 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 50% (6/12) | 80% (8/10) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 62 | 40 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 39 | 26 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 10 | 19 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 0 | 7 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.00 | 1.01 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -1.00 | 0.01 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 15', 0 - 1, Bertone L. ⚽,
- 28', Meichtry F. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 49', Fehr F. 🟨,
- 57', 1 - 1, Schmid D. ⚽, Vouilloz N. (A),
- 59', Meichtry F. ↓, Matoshi V. ↑,
- 59', Imeri K. ↓, Roth J. ↑,
- 62', Duranville J. ↓, Salah I. ↑,
- 66', Steffen N. ↓, Spycher T. ↑,
- 73', Kacuri D. ↓, Koindredi K. ↑,
- 73', Ajeti Al. ↓, Koloto G. ↑,
- 80', 1 - 2, Matoshi V. ⚽,
- 85', Bacanin A. ↓, Soticek M. ↑,
- 85', Traore B. ↓, Agbonifo J. ↑,
- 85', Rastoder E. ↓, Dahler L. ↑,
- 86', Fehr F. ↓, Franke D. ↑,
- 90+2', Leroy L. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Basel
41.2% | Draw
25.5% | Thun
33.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Basel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.1%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Basel's form might have worsened.Thun has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.7%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Thun's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Basel than the current prediction. (+9.5%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Basel, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Thun than the current prediction. (-6.9%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Thun, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Basel - Thun Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.29 ↑
(1.88) |
3.65 ↓
(4.09) |
2.83 ↓
(3.56) |
6.3%
(5.7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.25
What is the prediction for Basel - Thun?
Users Predictions:
14 users predict this event. Basel will win (votes: 7 - 50%). Thun will win (votes: 6 - 42.9%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 7.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Basel: 23.8% – 76.2%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 4 high ROI users predict this event. Basel (votes: 2 - 50%). Thun (votes: 2 - 50%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH 0 - Basel (1.59) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- O/U 3 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- AH -0.25 - Thun (1.73) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- DC - Thun (1.57) (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- DNB - Thun (2.03) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 13 high ROI users predict this event. Basel (votes: 4 - 30.8%). Thun (votes: 9 - 69.2%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Super League (Championship Group: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Super League (Championship Group: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Basel won 2.
- Recent performances by Basel have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Thun is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
- Basel may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Basel might have a minor edge in this game.
- There will not play in Basel: Broschinski M.
(Knee Injury)
Metinho
(Injury)
Shaqiri X.
(Yellow Cards)
- There will not play in Thun: Ibayi C.
(Injury)
Reichmuth N.
(Hand Injury)
Stewart L.
(Inactive)
Ziswiler N.
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Basel: Hitz M.
(Injury)
Kaio Eduardo
(Injury)
Tsunemoto K.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Thun: Heule M.
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Basel won 12 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 44:24. (average 2.2:1.2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Basel won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 27:16. (average 2.3:1.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Basel won against Thun?
Basel has won 2 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Thun won against Basel?
Thun has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Basel - Thun were as follows:
13.09.2025
Thun
-
Basel
1:3
11.01.2025
Basel
-
Thun
2:0
Swiss Super League Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Thun ✔ | 27 | 21 | 1 | 5 | 62:29 | 33 | 64 |
| 2 | St. Gallen | 27 | 15 | 5 | 7 | 53:33 | 20 | 50 |
| 3 | Lugano | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 43:32 | 11 | 46 |
| 4 | Basel | 27 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 41:35 | 6 | 43 |
| 5 | Sion | 27 | 10 | 11 | 6 | 39:30 | 9 | 41 |
| 6 | Young Boys | 27 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 55:52 | 3 | 39 |
| 7 | Luzern | 27 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 53:51 | 2 | 33 |
| 8 | Zurich | 27 | 9 | 4 | 14 | 39:53 | -14 | 31 |
| 9 | Lausanne | 27 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 40:44 | -4 | 30 |
| 10 | Servette | 28 | 6 | 12 | 10 | 45:52 | -7 | 30 |
| 11 | Grasshoppers | 27 | 5 | 9 | 13 | 35:47 | -12 | 24 |
| 12 | Winterthur ✔ | 28 | 3 | 6 | 19 | 31:78 | -47 | 15 |
Promotion ~ Super League (Championship Group: )
Super League (Relegation Group: )
Clinched Spots for Teams
Thun is Qualified for Super League (Championship Group )
Winterthur is Super League (Relegation Group )
