Result
1:2
27/09/2025 at 09:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Bundesliga - Round 5
- Referee: Petersen M. (Ger)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
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Africa | ZAP |
Albania | Tring Sport 3 |
Angola | Z Sports 1 |
Argentina | Disney+ |
Australia | Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect |
Austria | Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 2, Sky Sport Bundesliga 3 |
Canada | Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada |
China | Migu, QQ Sports |
Croatia | SportKlub 3 |
Czech-republic | Nova Sport 3, Oneplay |
Denmark | Viaplay |
Finland | Veikkaus TV, Viaplay 3 Urheilu, Viaplay |
France | beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 6, Free |
Germany | Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 2, Sky Sport Bundesliga 3, WOW |
Greece | Nova Sports 3, Nova Sports 5 |
Hong-kong | beIN Sports 2, M Plus Live, Now Player |
Iceland | Viaplay |
India | Vision+ |
Indonesia | K-Vision |
Japan | DAZN Japan |
Laos | beIN Connect |
Malaysia | beIN SPORTS MAX |
Malta | GO TV, TSN Malta 5 |
Mexico | Sky Sport |
Netherlands | Viaplay |
New-zealand | beIN Connect |
North-central-america | Sky Sports Norte |
North-macedonia | MaxTV GO |
Norway | Viaplay |
Pakistan | Tapmad |
Peru | Disney+ |
Philippines | beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX |
Poland | Eleven Sports 1 |
Romania | Digi Online, Digi Sport 4, Prima Sport 5 |
Russia | Okko Sport |
Saudi-arabia | Shahid |
Serbia | Arena Sport 5 |
Singapore | beIN SPORTS MAX |
Slovakia | Sport TV2, Voyo |
South-korea | Coupang Play |
Spain | DAZN Espana |
Sweden | Viaplay |
Switzerland | Sky Sport Bundesliga 2, Sky Sport Bundesliga 3 |
Thailand | beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX |
Turkey | S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 3 |
Uruguay | Disney+ |
Usa | ESPN App, ESPN+ |
Venezuela | Disney+ |
Vietnam | TV 360 |
World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
---|
Expected Goals (xG) |
---|
0.66 | 0.66 |
Ball Possession |
---|
49% | 51% |
Total shots |
---|
13 | 5 |
Shots on target |
---|
6 | 4 |
Big Chances |
---|
1 | 3 |
Corner Kicks |
---|
13 | 1 |
Passes |
---|
84% (374/447) | 85% (414/487) |
Yellow Cards |
---|
3 | 5 |
Expected Goals (xG) |
---|
0.66 | 0.66 |
xG on target (xGOT) |
---|
1.29 | 0.90 |
Total shots |
---|
13 | 5 |
Shots on target |
---|
6 | 4 |
Shots off target |
---|
6 | 0 |
Blocked Shots |
---|
1 | 1 |
Shots inside the Box |
---|
7 | 4 |
Shots outside the Box |
---|
6 | 1 |
Hit the Woodwork |
---|
0 | 0 |
Big Chances |
---|
1 | 3 |
Corner Kicks |
---|
13 | 1 |
Touches in opposition box |
---|
18 | 7 |
Accurate through passes |
---|
1 | 1 |
Offsides |
---|
2 | 0 |
Free Kicks |
---|
11 | 13 |
Passes |
---|
84% (374/447) | 85% (414/487) |
Long passes |
---|
40% (17/43) | 47% (26/55) |
Passes in final third |
---|
70% (96/137) | 69% (54/78) |
Crosses |
---|
13% (4/31) | 25% (1/4) |
Expected assists (xA) |
---|
0.67 | 0.61 |
Throw-ins |
---|
25 | 15 |
Fouls |
---|
13 | 11 |
Tackles |
---|
60% (9/15) | 71% (10/14) |
Duels won |
---|
40 | 44 |
Clearances |
---|
9 | 28 |
Interceptions |
---|
7 | 6 |
Errors leading to shot |
---|
0 | 1 |
Errors leading to goal |
---|
1 | 1 |
Goalkeeper Saves |
---|
2 | 4 |
xGOT faced |
---|
0.90 | 1.29 |
Goals prevented |
---|
-1.10 | 0.29 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 21', Quansah J. 🟨,
- 25', 0 - 1, Tapsoba E. ⚽,
- 32', 1 - 1, Wahl H. ⚽,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 46', Andrich R. ↓, Fernandez E. ↑,
- 50', Fujita J. 🟨,
- 56', Ben Seghir E. ↓, Poku E. ↑,
- 56', Tape A. ↓, Lucas ↑,
- 58', 1 - 2, Poku E. ⚽, Grimaldo A. (A),
- 60', Lucas 🟨,
- 68', Hountondji A. ↓, Kaars M. ↑,
- 68', Ritzka L. ↓, Dzwigala A. ↑,
- 75', Tillman M. ↓, Hofmann J. ↑,
- 80', Fujita J. ↓, Metcalfe C. ↑,
- 81', Pereira Lage M. ↓, Afolayan O. ↑,
- 86', Hjulmand K. 🟨,
- 87', Saliakas M. ↓, Ceesay A. ↑,
- 87', Smith E. 🟨,
- 89', Schick P. ↓, Kofane C. M. ↑,
- 90+2', Bade L. 🟨,
- 90+2', Fernandez E. 🟨,
- 90+8', Ceesay A. 🟨,
- 90+9', Kofane C. M. 🟨,
Chances of winning
St. Pauli 30.2% | Draw 27.1% | Bayer Leverkusen 42.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
St. Pauli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)Bayer Leverkusen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (-2.1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bayer Leverkusen than the current prediction. (+4.2%)
St. Pauli - Bayer Leverkusen Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now (Initially) |
3.18 ↓ (3.32) |
3.55 ↓ (3.75) |
2.29 ↑ (2.09) |
3.4% (4.7%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for St. Pauli - Bayer Leverkusen?
Users Predictions:
35 users predict this event. St. Pauli will win (votes: 6 - 17.1%). Bayer will win (votes: 25 - 71.4%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 11.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bayer: 56.4% – 86.4%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Bayer Leverkusen will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
- Bayer may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Bayer could have a small edge in this match.
- There will not play in St. Pauli: Irvine J.
(Muscle Injury)
Jones R.J.
(Shoulder Injury)
Nemeth D.
(Groin Injury)
- There will not play in Bayer: Palacios E.
(Groin Injury)
Sarco A.
(International duty)
Terrier M.
(Achilles Tendon Injury)
- There are questionable in St. Pauli: Mets K.
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Bayer: Tella N.
(Knee Injury)
- In the last 3 head-to-head matches, St. Pauli won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:5. (average 1.3:1.7).
- Including home match between the teams, St. Pauli won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.
How many head-to-head matches has St. Pauli won against Bayer Leverkusen?
St. Pauli has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Bayer Leverkusen won against St. Pauli?
Bayer Leverkusen has won 1 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between St. Pauli - Bayer Leverkusen were as follows:
20.04.2025
St. Pauli
-
Bayer Leverkusen
1:1
07.12.2024
Bayer Leverkusen
-
St. Pauli
2:1
Latest results of St. Pauli
Latest results of Bayer Leverkusen
German Bundesliga Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
1 | Bayern Munich | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 22:3 | 19 | 15 |
2 | Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 11:3 | 8 | 13 |
3 | RB Leipzig | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7:7 | 0 | 12 |
4 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 17:13 | 4 | 9 |
5 | Stuttgart | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7:6 | 1 | 9 |
6 | Bayer Leverkusen | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10:8 | 2 | 8 |
7 | FC Koln | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10:9 | 1 | 7 |
8 | Freiburg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9:9 | 0 | 7 |
9 | St. Pauli | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8:8 | 0 | 7 |
10 | Hoffenheim | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9:11 | -2 | 7 |
11 | Union Berlin | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8:11 | -3 | 7 |
12 | Wolfsburg | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7:7 | 0 | 5 |
13 | Hamburger SV | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2:8 | -6 | 5 |
14 | Mainz | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5:6 | -1 | 4 |
15 | Werder Bremen | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8:14 | -6 | 4 |
16 | Augsburg | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 8:12 | -4 | 3 |
17 | Heidenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4:10 | -6 | 3 |
18 | B. Monchengladbach | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5:12 | -7 | 2 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Bundesliga (Relegation)
Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga