St. Pauli vs Bayer Leverkusen – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

27/09/2025 at 09:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Millerntor-Stadion (Hamburg).

Bundesliga - Round 5
Referee: Petersen M. (Ger)
Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	ZAP
Albania	Tring Sport 3
Angola	Z Sports 1
Argentina	Disney+
Australia	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 2, Sky Sport Bundesliga 3
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
China	Migu, QQ Sports
Croatia	SportKlub 3
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay 3 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 6, Free
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 2, Sky Sport Bundesliga 3, WOW
Greece	Nova Sports 3, Nova Sports 5
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 2, M Plus Live, Now Player
Iceland	Viaplay
India	Vision+
Indonesia	K-Vision
Japan	DAZN Japan
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN SPORTS MAX
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 5
Mexico	Sky Sport
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	Viaplay
Pakistan	Tapmad
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	Eleven Sports 1
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 4, Prima Sport 5
Russia	Okko Sport
Saudi-arabia	Shahid
Serbia	Arena Sport 5
Singapore	beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	Sport TV2, Voyo
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	Sky Sport Bundesliga 2, Sky Sport Bundesliga 3
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 3
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	TV 360
World	Onefootball

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
0.66	0.66
Ball Possession
49%	51%
Total shots
13	5
Shots on target
6	4
Big Chances
1	3
Corner Kicks
13	1
Passes
84% (374/447)	85% (414/487)
Yellow Cards
3	5
Expected Goals (xG)
0.66	0.66
xG on target (xGOT)
1.29	0.90
Total shots
13	5
Shots on target
6	4
Shots off target
6	0
Blocked Shots
1	1
Shots inside the Box
7	4
Shots outside the Box
6	1
Hit the Woodwork
0	0
Big Chances
1	3
Corner Kicks
13	1
Touches in opposition box
18	7
Accurate through passes
1	1
Offsides
2	0
Free Kicks
11	13
Passes
84% (374/447)	85% (414/487)
Long passes
40% (17/43)	47% (26/55)
Passes in final third
70% (96/137)	69% (54/78)
Crosses
13% (4/31)	25% (1/4)
Expected assists (xA)
0.67	0.61
Throw-ins
25	15
Fouls
13	11
Tackles
60% (9/15)	71% (10/14)
Duels won
40	44
Clearances
9	28
Interceptions
7	6
Errors leading to shot
0	1
Errors leading to goal
1	1
Goalkeeper Saves
2	4
xGOT faced
0.90	1.29
Goals prevented
-1.10	0.29

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (1 - 1)
21', Quansah J. 🟨,
25', 0 - 1, Tapsoba E. ⚽,
32', 1 - 1, Wahl H. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Andrich R. ↓, Fernandez E. ↑,
50', Fujita J. 🟨,
56', Ben Seghir E. ↓, Poku E. ↑,
56', Tape A. ↓, Lucas ↑,
58', 1 - 2, Poku E. ⚽, Grimaldo A. (A),
60', Lucas 🟨,
68', Hountondji A. ↓, Kaars M. ↑,
68', Ritzka L. ↓, Dzwigala A. ↑,
75', Tillman M. ↓, Hofmann J. ↑,
80', Fujita J. ↓, Metcalfe C. ↑,
81', Pereira Lage M. ↓, Afolayan O. ↑,
86', Hjulmand K. 🟨,
87', Saliakas M. ↓, Ceesay A. ↑,
87', Smith E. 🟨,
89', Schick P. ↓, Kofane C. M. ↑,
90+2', Bade L. 🟨,
90+2', Fernandez E. 🟨,
90+8', Ceesay A. 🟨,
90+9', Kofane C. M. 🟨,

Chances of winning

St. Pauli
30.2%

Draw
27.1%

Bayer Leverkusen
42.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.8%

25.5%

45.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.1%

26.1%

46.9%

St. Pauli - Bayer Leverkusen Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.18 ↓ (3.32)	3.55 ↓ (3.75)	2.29 ↑ (2.09)	3.4% (4.7%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

What is the prediction for St. Pauli - Bayer Leverkusen?

Users Predictions: 35 users predict this event. St. Pauli will win (votes: 6 - 17.1%). Bayer will win (votes: 25 - 71.4%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 11.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bayer: 56.4% – 86.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

AH +1 - St. Pauli (1.33) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Bayer Leverkusen will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 8 high ROI users predict this event. St. Pauli (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Bayer (votes: 6 - 75%). Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
Bayer may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
Bayer could have a small edge in this match.
There will not play in St. Pauli: Irvine J. (Muscle Injury) Jones R.J. (Shoulder Injury) Nemeth D. (Groin Injury)
There will not play in Bayer: Palacios E. (Groin Injury) Sarco A. (International duty) Terrier M. (Achilles Tendon Injury)
There are questionable in St. Pauli: Mets K. (Knee Injury)
There are questionable in Bayer: Tella N. (Knee Injury)
In the last 3 head-to-head matches, St. Pauli won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:5. (average 1.3:1.7).
Including home match between the teams, St. Pauli won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

How many head-to-head matches has St. Pauli won against Bayer Leverkusen?

St. Pauli has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Bayer Leverkusen won against St. Pauli?

Bayer Leverkusen has won 1 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between St. Pauli - Bayer Leverkusen were as follows:

20.04.2025 St. Pauli - Bayer Leverkusen 1:1

07.12.2024 Bayer Leverkusen - St. Pauli 2:1

Latest results of St. Pauli

19.09.2025 Stuttgart - St. Pauli 2:0 ✺

14.09.2025 St. Pauli - Augsburg 2:1 ✺

03.09.2025 Holstein Kiel - St. Pauli 1:1 ✺

29.08.2025 Hamburger SV - St. Pauli 0:2 ✺

23.08.2025 St. Pauli - Borussia Dortmund 3:3 ✺

Latest results of Bayer Leverkusen

21.09.2025 Bayer Leverkusen - Borussia Mönchengladbach 1:1 ✺

18.09.2025 Copenhagen - Bayer Leverkusen 2:2 ✺

12.09.2025 Bayer Leverkusen - Eintracht Frankfurt 3:1 ✺

30.08.2025 Werder Bremen - Bayer Leverkusen 3:3 ✺

23.08.2025 Bayer Leverkusen - Hoffenheim 1:2 ✺

German Bundesliga Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Bayern Munich	18	16	2	0	71:14	57	50
2	Dortmund	18	11	6	1	35:17	18	39
3	Hoffenheim	17	10	3	4	35:21	14	33
4	Stuttgart	18	10	3	5	33:26	7	33
5	RB Leipzig	17	10	2	5	33:24	9	32
6	Bayer Leverkusen	17	9	2	6	34:25	9	29
7	Eintracht Frankfurt	18	7	6	5	38:39	-1	27
8	Freiburg	18	6	6	6	29:31	-2	24
9	Union Berlin	18	6	6	6	24:27	-3	24
10	FC Koln	18	5	5	8	27:30	-3	20
11	B. Monchengladbach	18	5	5	8	23:29	-6	20
12	Wolfsburg	18	5	4	9	27:38	-11	19
13	Werder Bremen	17	4	6	7	21:34	-13	18
14	Hamburger SV	17	4	5	8	17:27	-10	17
15	Augsburg	18	4	4	10	20:35	-15	16
16	Heidenheim	18	3	4	11	17:39	-22	13
17	Mainz	18	2	6	10	18:31	-13	12
18	St. Pauli	17	3	3	11	16:31	-15	12

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