St. Pauli vs Bayer Leverkusen – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Result
1:2
27/09/2025 at 09:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Bundesliga - Round 5
  • Referee: Petersen M. (Ger)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
africaAfricaZAP
albaniaAlbaniaTring Sport 3
angolaAngolaZ Sports 1
argentinaArgentinaDisney+
australiaAustraliaAmazon Prime Video, beIN Connect
austriaAustriaSky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 2, Sky Sport Bundesliga 3
canadaCanadaAmazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
chinaChinaMigu, QQ Sports
croatiaCroatiaSportKlub 3
czech-republicCzech-republicNova Sport 3, Oneplay
denmarkDenmarkViaplay
finlandFinlandVeikkaus TV, Viaplay 3 Urheilu, Viaplay
franceFrancebeIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 6, Free
germanyGermanyAmazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 2, Sky Sport Bundesliga 3, WOW
greeceGreeceNova Sports 3, Nova Sports 5
hong-kongHong-kongbeIN Sports 2, M Plus Live, Now Player
icelandIcelandViaplay
indiaIndiaVision+
indonesiaIndonesiaK-Vision
japanJapanDAZN Japan
laosLaosbeIN Connect
malaysiaMalaysiabeIN SPORTS MAX
maltaMaltaGO TV, TSN Malta 5
mexicoMexicoSky Sport
netherlandsNetherlandsViaplay
new-zealandNew-zealandbeIN Connect
north-central-americaNorth-central-americaSky Sports Norte
north-macedoniaNorth-macedoniaMaxTV GO
norwayNorwayViaplay
pakistanPakistanTapmad
peruPeruDisney+
philippinesPhilippinesbeIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
polandPolandEleven Sports 1
romaniaRomaniaDigi Online, Digi Sport 4, Prima Sport 5
russiaRussiaOkko Sport
saudi-arabiaSaudi-arabiaShahid
serbiaSerbiaArena Sport 5
singaporeSingaporebeIN SPORTS MAX
slovakiaSlovakiaSport TV2, Voyo
south-koreaSouth-koreaCoupang Play
spainSpainDAZN Espana
swedenSwedenViaplay
switzerlandSwitzerlandSky Sport Bundesliga 2, Sky Sport Bundesliga 3
thailandThailandbeIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
turkeyTurkeyS Sport+, Tivibu Spor 3
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaESPN App, ESPN+
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+
vietnamVietnamTV 360
worldWorldOnefootball

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.660.66
Ball Possession
49%51%
Total shots
135
Shots on target
64
Big Chances
13
Corner Kicks
131
Passes
84% (374/447)85% (414/487)
Yellow Cards
35
Expected Goals (xG)
0.660.66
xG on target (xGOT)
1.290.90
Total shots
135
Shots on target
64
Shots off target
60
Blocked Shots
11
Shots inside the Box
74
Shots outside the Box
61
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
13
Corner Kicks
131
Touches in opposition box
187
Accurate through passes
11
Offsides
20
Free Kicks
1113
Passes
84% (374/447)85% (414/487)
Long passes
40% (17/43)47% (26/55)
Passes in final third
70% (96/137)69% (54/78)
Crosses
13% (4/31)25% (1/4)
Expected assists (xA)
0.670.61
Throw-ins
2515
Fouls
1311
Tackles
60% (9/15)71% (10/14)
Duels won
4044
Clearances
928
Interceptions
76
Errors leading to shot
01
Errors leading to goal
11
Goalkeeper Saves
24
xGOT faced
0.901.29
Goals prevented
-1.100.29

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 1)
  • 21', Quansah J. 🟨,
  • 25', 0 - 1, Tapsoba E. ,
  • 32', 1 - 1, Wahl H. ,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 1)
  • 46', Andrich R. , Fernandez E. ,
  • 50', Fujita J. 🟨,
  • 56', Ben Seghir E. , Poku E. ,
  • 56', Tape A. , Lucas ,
  • 58', 1 - 2, Poku E. , Grimaldo A. (A),
  • 60', Lucas 🟨,
  • 68', Hountondji A. , Kaars M. ,
  • 68', Ritzka L. , Dzwigala A. ,
  • 75', Tillman M. , Hofmann J. ,
  • 80', Fujita J. , Metcalfe C. ,
  • 81', Pereira Lage M. , Afolayan O. ,
  • 86', Hjulmand K. 🟨,
  • 87', Saliakas M. , Ceesay A. ,
  • 87', Smith E. 🟨,
  • 89', Schick P. , Kofane C. M. ,
  • 90+2', Bade L. 🟨,
  • 90+2', Fernandez E. 🟨,
  • 90+8', Ceesay A. 🟨,
  • 90+9', Kofane C. M. 🟨,

Chances of winning


St. Pauli
30.2%
Draw
27.1%
Bayer Leverkusen
42.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
28.8% 25.5% 45.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.1% 26.1% 46.9%

St. Pauli - Bayer Leverkusen Odds

1 X 2 Marga
Avarage Now
(Initially)
3.18
(3.32)
3.55
(3.75)
2.29
(2.09)
3.4%
(4.7%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for St. Pauli - Bayer Leverkusen?
  • Users Predictions: 35 users predict this event. St. Pauli will win (votes: 6 - 17.1%). Bayer will win (votes: 25 - 71.4%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 11.4%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Bayer: 56.4%86.4%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Bayer Leverkusen will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%) 🥈 Silver Tip.
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
    • Bayer may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • Bayer could have a small edge in this match.
    • There will not play in St. Pauli: Irvine J. (Muscle Injury) Jones R.J. (Shoulder Injury) Nemeth D. (Groin Injury)
    • There will not play in Bayer: Palacios E. (Groin Injury) Sarco A. (International duty) Terrier M. (Achilles Tendon Injury)
    • There are questionable in St. Pauli: Mets K. (Knee Injury)
    • There are questionable in Bayer: Tella N. (Knee Injury)
    • In the last 3 head-to-head matches, St. Pauli won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:5. (average 1.3:1.7).
    • Including home match between the teams, St. Pauli won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between St. Pauli - Bayer Leverkusen were as follows:
    20.04.2025 St. Pauli - Bayer Leverkusen 1:1
    07.12.2024 Bayer Leverkusen - St. Pauli 2:1
    Latest results of St. Pauli
    19.09.2025 Stuttgart - St. Pauli 2:0
    14.09.2025 St. Pauli - Augsburg 2:1
    03.09.2025 Holstein Kiel - St. Pauli 1:1
    29.08.2025 Hamburger SV - St. Pauli 0:2
    Latest results of Bayer Leverkusen
    German Bundesliga Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Bayern Munich15132055:114441
    2Dortmund1595126:121432
    3Bayer Leverkusen1592433:201329
    4RB Leipzig1592430:191129
    5Hoffenheim1583429:20927
    6Stuttgart1582525:22326
    7Eintracht Frankfurt1574430:30025
    8Union Berlin1563620:23-321
    9Freiburg1555525:26-120
    10Werder Bremen1545618:28-1017
    11FC Koln1544722:24-216
    12B. Monchengladbach1544718:24-616
    13Hamburger SV1544716:25-916
    14Wolfsburg1543823:28-515
    15Augsburg1542917:28-1114
    16St. Pauli1533913:26-1312
    17Heidenheim15321013:34-2111
    18Mainz1515913:26-138

          Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
          Bundesliga (Relegation)
          Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga