Result
 
                    3:1
                
               
                
                                 
                    
                    
                        16/05/2025 at  14:15 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
                    
 
                 
                
                
				
				                
				
				                
                 
                 
                     
                     
                                                -  Challenge League - Round 35
 
                                                - Referee: Kanagasingam A. (Sui)
 
                                                - Where to Watch on TV: 
 
                                                
                    
                    
                    
                    
 |  | 
|---|
 Switzerland | Blue Sport 4, Blue Sport 4 | 
                      
                     
                  
				
				            
            
            
                            				
                
                
				
				                 
                    
                        Match Stats
                    
                    
                        
                                
 |  | 
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) | 
|---|
| 1.46 | 1.60 | 
| Ball Possession | 
|---|
| 45% | 55% | 
| Total shots | 
|---|
| 17 | 16 | 
| Shots on target | 
|---|
| 9 | 8 | 
| Big Chances | 
|---|
| 3 | 1 | 
| Corner Kicks | 
|---|
| 6 | 9 | 
| Passes | 
|---|
| 78% (234/300) | 81% (301/371) | 
| Yellow Cards | 
|---|
| 2 | 0 | 
| Expected Goals (xG) | 
|---|
| 1.46 | 1.60 | 
| xG on target (xGOT) | 
|---|
| 3.65 | 2.20 | 
| Total shots | 
|---|
| 17 | 16 | 
| Shots on target | 
|---|
| 9 | 8 | 
| Shots off target | 
|---|
| 4 | 5 | 
| Blocked Shots | 
|---|
| 4 | 3 | 
| Shots inside the Box | 
|---|
| 11 | 11 | 
| Shots outside the Box | 
|---|
| 6 | 5 | 
| Hit the Woodwork | 
|---|
| 0 | 0 | 
| Big Chances | 
|---|
| 3 | 1 | 
| Corner Kicks | 
|---|
| 6 | 9 | 
| Touches in opposition box | 
|---|
| 25 | 29 | 
| Accurate through passes | 
|---|
| 1 | 0 | 
| Offsides | 
|---|
| 3 | 5 | 
| Free Kicks | 
|---|
| 7 | 14 | 
| Passes | 
|---|
| 78% (234/300) | 81% (301/371) | 
| Long passes | 
|---|
| 44% (26/59) | 57% (28/49) | 
| Passes in final third | 
|---|
| 74% (48/65) | 60% (49/82) | 
| Crosses | 
|---|
| 19% (4/21) | 30% (7/23) | 
| Expected assists (xA) | 
|---|
| 1.17 | 1.42 | 
| Throw-ins | 
|---|
| 16 | 21 | 
| Fouls | 
|---|
| 14 | 7 | 
| Tackles | 
|---|
| 59% (10/17) | 75% (6/8) | 
| Duels won | 
|---|
| 38 | 38 | 
| Clearances | 
|---|
| 39 | 26 | 
| Interceptions | 
|---|
| 5 | 10 | 
| Errors leading to shot | 
|---|
| 0 | 0 | 
| Errors leading to goal | 
|---|
| 0 | 0 | 
| Goalkeeper Saves | 
|---|
| 7 | 6 | 
| xGOT faced | 
|---|
| 2.20 | 3.65 | 
| Goals prevented | 
|---|
| 1.20 | 0.65 | 
                        
                      
                 
				 				 
				 
				                  
                    
                        Key Moments
                    
                    
					    Here there are
                                
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
 - 44', 1 - 0, Nivokazi R. ⚽, Souza Espana C. (A), 
 - 2nd Half (2 - 1)
 - 52', 2 - 0, Souza Espana C. ⚽, Nivokazi R. (A), 
 - 60', Balaruban A. ↓, Franke D. ↑, 
 - 61', Balaruban A. ↓, Franke D. ↑, 
 - 61', Bertone L. ↓, Castroman M. ↑, 
 - 62', 3 - 0, Nivokazi R. ⚽, Mihajlovic D. (A), 
 - 66', Matondo H. 🟨, 
 - 68', 3 - 1, Bamert J. ⚽, 
 - 71', Meichtry F. ↓, Gutbub M. ↑, 
 - 71', Chacon T. ↓, Rossi N. ↑, 
 - 74', Souza Espana C. ↓, Da Silva N. ↑, 
 - 79', Matondo H. ↓, Perrault T. ↑, 
 - 81', Reichmuth N. ↓, Sessolo H. ↑, 
 - 89', Lusuena N. ↓, Lymann F. ↑, 
 - 90+3', Mihajlovic D. 🟨, 
 
                        
                      
                 
				 				 
				 				 
				 
				 				 
				 
				 
				
				                 
                    
                        Chances of winning
                    
                    
                        
                                
 Bellinzona  28.3% | Draw  25.7% | Thun  46% | 
Initial Probability
 (when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
                        
                      
                 
				 				 
				 
				                  
                    
                        Bellinzona - Thun Odds
                    
                    
                        
                                
            
            
            
			
			
			    | 
			   1 | 
			   X | 
			   2 | 
                           Marga | 
			    | 
			
			
			
			   Avarage Now (Initially) | 
			   3.27 ↑ (3.2) | 
			   3.59 ↑ (3.4) | 
			   2.01 ↓ (2.08) | 
			   8.2% (8.7%) |  | 
                               
			
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
 
                        
                      
                 
				 				 
				 
				 
            
                                
                
                                  
                    
                     Preview Facts
                    
                    
                        
                              - Thun is Confirmed as championsnQualified for Super League
 - In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bellinzona won 1.
 - Bellinzona is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
 - Thun is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).
  - Thun is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
 - There will not play in Bellinzona: Chukwuemeka C.
(Injury)
Diarra I.
(Injury)
Sabbatini J.
(Yellow Cards)
Sangare M.
(Injury)
Sauter I.
(Yellow Cards)
Sorensen A.
(Knee Injury)
 - There will not play in Thun: Burki M.
(Inactive)
Matoshi V.
(Shoulder Injury)
Tomas M.
(Arm Injury)
 - In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Bellinzona won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 9:16. (average 0.8:1.3).
 - Including home matches between the teams, Bellinzona won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:6. (average 0.8:1.2).                        
 
                      
                 
                
                                  
                    
                        How many head-to-head matches has Bellinzona won against Thun?
                    
                    
                        
                            Bellinzona has won 3 of their last 11 head-to-head matches.
                        
                    
 
                 
                
                
                                  
                    
                        How many head-to-head matches has Thun won against Bellinzona?
                    
                    
                        
                             Thun has won 6 of their last 11 head-to-head matches.
                        
                    
 
                 
                
                
                
                                 
                    
                        What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
                    
                    
                    
                        
                            The latest head-to-head matches between Bellinzona - Thun were as follows:
                                                        
                                09.02.2025 
                                Thun 
                                - 
                                Bellinzona 
                                2:0
                            
        
                                                        
                                04.10.2024 
                                Bellinzona 
                                - 
                                Thun 
                                0:0
                            
        
                                                        
                                20.09.2024 
                                Thun 
                                - 
                                Bellinzona 
                                1:2
                            
        
                                                        
                                13.04.2024 
                                Thun 
                                - 
                                Bellinzona 
                                1:0
                            
        
                                                        
                                27.01.2024 
                                Bellinzona 
                                - 
                                Thun 
                                0:0
                            
        
                                                     
                      
                    
                 
                
                
                                
                    
                        Latest results of Bellinzona                    
                    
                    
                 
                                
                                
				
				
				
                
                
                                 
                                 
                			   
			                       
                            
                                                
Swiss Challenge League Table
2025/26 |  | Pl | W | D | L |  | Diff | Pts | 
| 1 | Aarau | 12 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 26:10 | 16 | 33 | 
| 2 | Vaduz | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 28:12 | 16 | 27 | 
| 3 | Yverdon | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 25:14 | 11 | 23 | 
| 4 | Xamax | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 21:16 | 5 | 20 | 
| 5 | Lausanne Ouchy | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 21:17 | 4 | 19 | 
| 6 | Stade Nyonnais | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 18:21 | -3 | 13 | 
| 7 | Etoile-Carouge | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 12:17 | -5 | 11 | 
| 8 | Rapperswil-Jona | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 12:19 | -7 | 10 | 
| 9 | Wil | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 9:23 | -14 | 8 | 
| 10 | Bellinzona | 12 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 5:28 | -23 | 4 | 
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