Benfica vs Paris Saint-Germain – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football UEFA Champions League Women
Result
1:1
17/12/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • Champions League Women - League phase - Round 6
  • Referee: Guteva H. (Bul)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.503.25
Ball Possession
52%48%
Total shots
1319
Shots on target
32
Big Chances
21
Corner Kicks
27
Passes
79% (290/366)77% (259/336)
Yellow Cards
03
Expected Goals (xG)
1.503.25
xG on target (xGOT)
1.500.73
Total shots
1319
Shots on target
32
Shots off target
78
Blocked Shots
39
Shots inside the Box
815
Shots outside the Box
54
Hit the Woodwork
02
Big Chances
21
Corner Kicks
27
Touches in opposition box
1649
Accurate through passes
10
Offsides
02
Free Kicks
1115
Passes
79% (290/366)77% (259/336)
Long passes
43% (21/49)43% (20/46)
Passes in final third
62% (53/86)59% (51/86)
Crosses
45% (5/11)27% (4/15)
Expected assists (xA)
0.841.10
Throw-ins
2213
Fouls
1511
Tackles
41% (11/27)72% (13/18)
Duels won
6156
Clearances
2811
Interceptions
1216
Errors leading to shot
01
Errors leading to goal
10
Goalkeeper Saves
12
xGOT faced
0.731.50
Goals prevented
-0.270.50

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 1)
  • 5', 0 - 1, Echegini J. ⚽,
  • 24', De Almeida E. 🟨,
  • 32', 1 - 1, Costa C. (Penalty Awarded),
  • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
  • 46', Diakite T. ↓, Groenen J. ↑,
  • 46', De Almeida E. ↓, Isabela ↑,
  • 61', Sousa Alves L. C. ↓, Engesvik R. ↑,
  • 61', Raysla N. ↓, Pauleta ↑,
  • 61', Davidson C. ↓, Martins L. ↑,
  • 61', Amado C. ↓, Almeida L. ↑,
  • 65', Graziani O. ↓, Morissaint L. ↑,
  • 65', Samoura T. ↓, Jourde F. ↑,
  • 74', Gasper A. ↓, Clarinha ↑,
  • 81', Morissaint L. 🟨,
  • 83', Kanjinga M. ↓, Fatier N. ↑,
  • 90+7', Isabela 🟨,

Chances of winning


Benfica
36.9%		Draw
27%		Paris Saint-Germain
36%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
31.5% 24.6% 43.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.2% 24.4% 44.2%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Benfica has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Benfica's performance.
  • Paris Saint-Germain has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.8%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Paris Saint-Germain might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Benfica than the current prediction. (-5.7%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Benfica that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paris Saint-Germain than the current prediction. (+8.2%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Paris Saint-Germain could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
    •

    Benfica - Paris Saint-Germain Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 2.51 ↓
    (2.96)    		 3.42 ↓
    (3.79)    		 2.57 ↑
    (2.13)    		 8%
    (7.1%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
    What is the prediction for Benfica - Paris Saint-Germain?
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • AH 0 - PSG (1.88) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • DC - Benfica (1.45) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Users Predictions: Paris Saint-Germain will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 44.94% – 100%.
  • Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Benfica (votes: 1 - 50%). PSG (votes: 1 - 50%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 15 and 16).
    • Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
    • Benfica may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • PSG could have a small edge in this match.
    • In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.
    Latest results of Benfica
    14.12.2025 Damaiense - Benfica 0:2
    10.12.2025 Barcelona - Benfica 3:1 ✺
    06.12.2025 Benfica - Braga 3:2
    19.11.2025 Paris FC - Benfica 2:0 ✺
    12.11.2025 Benfica - Twente 1:1 ✺
    Latest results of Paris Saint-Germain
    12.12.2025 Paris Saint-Germain - Montpellier 2:2 ✺
    09.12.2025 Paris Saint-Germain - Leuven 0:0 ✺
    05.12.2025 Olympique Marseille - Paris Saint-Germain 1:5 ✺
    23.11.2025 Saint-Étienne - Paris Saint-Germain 1:4 ✺
    20.11.2025 Paris Saint-Germain - Bayern Munich 1:3 ✺
    Draw
    Play Offs

    1/8-finals
    1Atl. Madrid W (11)Manchester Utd W (6)0 : 2, 0 : 3
    2ByeBayern Munich W (4)
    3Paris FC W (10)Real Madrid W (7)0 : 2, 2 : 3
    4ByeBarcelona W (1)
    5Leuven W (12)Arsenal W (5)1 : 3, 0 : 4
    6ByeChelsea W (3)
    7Wolfsburg W (9)Juventus W (8)2 : 0, 2 : 2
    8ByeLyon W (2)

    Quarter-finals
    1Manchester Utd W (6)Bayern Munich W (4)
    2Real Madrid W (7)Barcelona W (1)
    3Arsenal W (5)Chelsea W (3)
    4Wolfsburg W (9)Lyon W (2)

    Semi-finals
    1TBD #1TBD #2
    2TBD #3TBD #4

    Final
    1TBD #1TBD #2
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