Result
2:2
17/09/2025 at 18:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Copa Sudamericana - Play Offs - Quarter-finals
- Referee: Ortega K. (Per)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Argentina | DirecTV Sports, DSports 1 |
 Asia | beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD |
 Australia | Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3 |
 Bolivia | Tigo Sports 1, Tigo Sports App |
 Brazil | Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 Bulgaria | Max Sport 4 |
 Canada | beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol |
 Chile | DirecTV Sports |
 Croatia | Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go |
 Ecuador | DirecTV Sports |
 Germany | Sportdigital FUSSBALL |
 Indonesia | Mola TV |
 Israel | Sport 3 |
 Italy | Como TV |
 Kosovo | Arena Premium 1 |
 Malaysia | Mola |
 New-zealand | beIN Connect |
 Paraguay | Tigo Sports+ |
 Portugal | Sport TV1 |
 Russia | Okko Sport |
 Serbia | Arena Premium 1 |
 Slovenia | Arena Sport 1 |
 South-america | DGO Latin America |
 Spain | LaLiga+ |
 Switzerland | Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV |
 Turkey | S Sport, S Sport+ |
 Uruguay | DSports 1 |
 Usa | beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz |
 Venezuela | DSports 1 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.16 | 1.76 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 76% | 24% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 19 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 89% (488/546) | 64% (110/171) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 0 | 4 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.16 | 1.76 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.96 | 1.82 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 19 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 11 | 2 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 8 | 3 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 11 | 4 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 17 | 7 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 16 | 8 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 89% (488/546) | 64% (110/171) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 63% (31/49) | 43% (20/46) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 84% (180/215) | 50% (32/64) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 14% (5/37) | 38% (3/8) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.71 | 0.94 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 27 | 21 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 8 | 16 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 70% (7/10) | 45% (5/11) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 36 | 36 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 9 | 33 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 8 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.82 | 1.96 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.18 | -0.04 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 2)
- 13', Sampaoli J. 🟨,
- 22', Natanael 🟨,
- 36', Cuello ↓, Caio Paulista ↑,
- 45', 0 - 1, Alexsander ⚽, Gustavo Scarpa (A),
- 45+6', 0 - 2, Vitor Hugo ⚽, Gustavo Scarpa (A),
- 2nd Half (2 - 0)
- 48', 1 - 2, Robson Matheus ⚽, Melgar C. A. (A),
- 57', Gariglio I. 🟥,
- 61', Gustavo Scarpa 🟨,
- 61', Gustavo Scarpa ↓, Hulk ↑,
- 61', Alexsander ↓, Igor Gomes ↑,
- 62', Velasquez J. ↓, Romero D. ↑,
- 62', Melgar C. A. ↓, Paz L. ↑,
- 70', Cauteruccio M. (Pen),
- 73', Alonso J. 🟨,
- 76', Natanael ↓, Fausto Vera ↑,
- 76', Rony ↓, Reinier ↑,
- 77', Sagredo J. ↓, Batallini D. ↑,
- 88', 2 - 2, Romero D. (Pen),
- 88', Catano D. ↓, Echeverria S. ↑,
- 90+7', Franco A. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Bolívar
52.8% | Draw
28.2% | Atlético Mineiro
19% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Bolívar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)Atlético Mineiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bolívar than the current prediction. (+2.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (+2.9%)
Bolívar - Atlético Mineiro Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.79 ↑
(1.74) |
3.4 ↓
(3.96) |
4.93 ↑
(4.14) |
5.6%
(6.8%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Bolívar - Atlético Mineiro?
Users Predictions:
Bolívar will win
(29 of 32 users predict this - 90.63%).
Confidence interval (95%): 80.53% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Bolívar will win (9 of 9 users predict this - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- 1st leg.
- Bolívar is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Atlético MG has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
- Bolívar may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Bolívar is the team to beat.
- We predict that Bolívar will win today's game, with odds of 1.64.
- Recently, there has been no match between the teams.
How many head-to-head matches has Bolívar won against Atlético Mineiro?
Bolívar has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Atlético Mineiro won against Bolívar?
Atlético Mineiro has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Bolívar - Atlético Mineiro were as follows:
Latest results of Bolívar
Latest results of Atlético Mineiro
Draw
Play Offs1/16-finals| 1 | Alianza Lima | Gremio | 1 : 1, 2 : 0 |
| 2 | Bye | U. Catolica | |
| 3 | U. De Chile | Guarani | 1 : 2, 5 : 0 |
| 4 | Bye | Independiente | |
| 5 | Central Cordoba | Cerro Largo | 3 : 0, 0 : 0 |
| 6 | Bye | Lanus | |
| 7 | Bahia | America De Cali | 0 : 2, 0 : 0 |
| 8 | Bye | Fluminense | |
| 9 | Bolivar | Palestino | 3 : 0, 3 : 0 |
| 10 | Bye | Cienciano | |
| 11 | Bucaramanga | Atletico-MG | 1 : 1, 0 : 1 |
| 12 | Bye | Godoy Cruz | |
| 13 | Ind. del Valle | Vasco | 1 : 1, 4 : 0 |
| 14 | Bye | Mushuc Runa | |
| 15 | SA Bulo Bulo | Once Caldas | 0 : 4, 0 : 3 |
| 16 | Bye | Huracan | |
1/8-finals| 1 | Alianza Lima | U. Catolica | 2 : 1, 2 : 0 |
| 2 | U. De Chile | Independiente | 1 : 1, 1 : 0 |
| 3 | Central Cordoba | Lanus | 0 : 2, 1 : 0 |
| 4 | America De Cali | Fluminense | 0 : 2, 1 : 2 |
| 5 | Bolivar | Cienciano | 2 : 0, 2 : 0 |
| 6 | Atletico-MG | Godoy Cruz | 1 : 0, 2 : 1 |
| 7 | Ind. del Valle | Mushuc Runa | 2 : 2, 1 : 0 |
| 8 | Once Caldas | Huracan | 3 : 1, 1 : 0 |
Quarter-finals| 1 | Alianza Lima | U. De Chile | |
| 2 | Lanus | Fluminense | 1 : 0 |
| 3 | Bolivar | Atletico-MG | 2 : 2 |
| 4 | Ind. del Valle | Once Caldas | 0 : 2 |
