Result
0:1
15/02/2026 at 18:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Paulista - Round 8
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | HBO Max |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.50 | 0.84 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 50% | 50% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (302/370) | 76% (301/398) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Red cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.50 | 0.84 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.02 | 0.73 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 11 | 3 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 11 | 2 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 3 | 8 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 22 | 10 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (302/370) | 76% (301/398) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 47% (20/43) | 33% (14/42) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 69% (74/108) | 59% (48/82) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 20% (6/30) | 8% (1/12) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.90 | 0.68 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 21 | 25 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 7 | 12 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 64% (7/11) | 71% (10/14) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 46 | 47 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 22 | 23 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 10 | 2 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.73 | 0.02 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.27 | 0.02 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 22', Thiago Moraes 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 46', Cassio Gabriel ↓, Felipe Azevedo ↑,
- 58', Carlos Eduardo 🟨,
- 63', Henrique Teles 🟨,
- 69', Matheus Sales ↓, Marquinho ↑,
- 69', Kelvin ↓, Guilherme Queiroz ↑,
- 71', Carlos Eduardo ↓, Ravanelli ↑,
- 71', Baianinho ↓, Matheus Guilherme ↑,
- 75', Leonan Santos 🟥,
- 78', Guilherme Nogueira 🟨,
- 79', Henrique Teles ↓, Marcio Maranhao ↑,
- 84', Hygor ↓, Leo Gamalho ↑,
- 84', Jefferson Nem ↓, Thalles ↑,
- 85', Vinicius Popo ↓, Lucas Dias ↑,
- 85', Thiago Moraes ↓, Ricardo Cerqueira ↑,
- 90+6', 0 - 1, Felipe Azevedo ⚽,
Chances of winning
Botafogo SP
43.8% | Draw
30.6% | Capivariano
25.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Botafogo SP has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)Capivariano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Botafogo SP than the current prediction. (+2.1%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Capivariano than the current prediction. (-1.4%)
Botafogo SP - Capivariano Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.12 ↑
(2.04) |
3.02 ↓
(3.04) |
3.62 ↓
(3.72) |
7.9%
(8.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Botafogo SP - Capivariano?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Botafogo SP (votes: 1 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 9).
- Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
- Botafogo SP may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Botafogo SP is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
- There are questionable in Botafogo SP: Jeferson
(Injury)
Rafael Gava
(Injury)
Wallace
(Inactive)
- In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Botafogo SP won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1. (average 2:0.5).
- Including home match between the teams, Botafogo SP won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.
How many head-to-head matches has Botafogo SP won against Capivariano?
Botafogo SP has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Capivariano won against Botafogo SP?
Capivariano has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Botafogo SP - Capivariano were as follows:
Latest results of Botafogo SP
Latest results of Capivariano
Draw
Play OffsQuarter-finals| 1 | Novorizontino (1) | Santos (8) | 2 : 1 |
| 2 | Portuguesa (4) | Corinthians (5) | 1 : 2 |
| 3 | Palmeiras (2) | Capivariano (7) | 4 : 0 |
| 4 | Bragantino (3) | Sao Paulo (6) | 1 : 2 |
Semi-finals| 1 | Novorizontino (1) | Corinthians (5) | 1 : 0 |
| 2 | Palmeiras (2) | Sao Paulo (6) | 2 : 1 |
Final| 1 | Novorizontino (1) | Palmeiras (2) | |
