Francis Tiafoe vs Brandon Nakashima – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

27/02/2026 at 23:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))

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ATP - SINGLES: Acapulco, hard - Semi-finals
Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports 1
Brazil	ESPN 3
Bulgaria	Max Sport 1
Czech-republic	Oneplay, Premier Sport 2
Denmark	TV2 Play
Finland	MTV Katsomo+
Germany	Sky Sport Tennis
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 4
Portugal	Sport TV6
Romania	Prima Sport PPV 1
Sweden	TV4 Play
Ukraine	Setanta Sports+
United-kingdom	Sky Sports Tennis

Match Stats


Aces
7	16
Double Faults
2	1
1st serve percentage
58%	68%
1st serve points won
73% (45/62)	70% (50/71)
2nd serve points won
43% (19/44)	55% (18/33)
Break Points Saved
60% (6/10)	64% (7/11)
1st return points won
30% (21/71)	27% (17/62)
2nd return points won
45% (15/33)	57% (25/44)
Break Points Converted
36% (4/11)	40% (4/10)
Winners
37	42
Unforced errors
31	33
Net points won
74% (14/19)	50% (9/18)
Service Points Won
60% (64/106)	65% (66/101)
Return Points Won
35% (35/101)	40% (42/106)
Total Points Won
48% (99/207)	52% (108/207)
Last 10 balls
5	5
Match points saved
0	1
Service games won
73% (11/15)	75% (12/16)
Return games won
25% (4/16)	27% (4/15)
Total games won
48% (15/31)	52% (16/31)

Chances of winning

Francis Tiafoe
49.8%

Brandon Nakashima
50.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.7%

54.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Francis Tiafoe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Brandon Nakashima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Francis Tiafoe than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brandon Nakashima than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

Francis Tiafoe - Brandon Nakashima Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.92 ↑ (1.9)		1.9 (1.9)	4.7% (5.3%)

What is the prediction for Francis Tiafoe - Brandon Nakashima?

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

O/U 2.5 Sets - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 25.5 Games - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Francis Tiafoe will win (22 of 24 users predict this - 91.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 80.61% – 100%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Francis Tiafoe will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.

Preview Facts

Tiafoe is ranked ATP: 28. Nakashima is ranked ATP: 29.
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tiafoe won 4.
Right now, both players are showing solid form.
Tiafoe may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.
In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Tiafoe won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:5. (average 1.7:0.7).

How many head-to-head matches has Francis Tiafoe won against Brandon Nakashima?

Francis Tiafoe has won 1 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Brandon Nakashima won against Francis Tiafoe?

Brandon Nakashima has won 1 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Francis Tiafoe - Brandon Nakashima were as follows:

05.04.2025 Brandon Nakashima - Francis Tiafoe 0:2

26.09.2024 Francis Tiafoe - Brandon Nakashima 0:2

Latest results of Francis Tiafoe

26.02.2026 Francis Tiafoe - Mattia Bellucci 2:0 ✺

25.02.2026 Francis Tiafoe - Aleksandar Kovacevic 2:1 ✺

24.02.2026 Francis Tiafoe - Nuno Borges 2:0 ✺

20.02.2026 Learner Tien - Francis Tiafoe 2:1 ✺

19.02.2026 Zachary Svajda - Francis Tiafoe 1:2 ✺

Latest results of Brandon Nakashima

26.02.2026 Valentin Vacherot - Brandon Nakashima 1:2 ✺

25.02.2026 Brandon Nakashima - Patrick Kypson 2:0 ✺

23.02.2026 Brandon Nakashima - Elias Ymer 2:0 ✺

18.02.2026 Brandon Nakashima - Chak Lam Coleman Wong 0:2 ✺

17.02.2026 Brandon Nakashima - Marin Cilic 2:0 ✺

Draw

Singles - Main

1/16-finals

1	Zverev A. (1)	Moutet C.	2 : 0
2	Schoolkate T.	Kecmanovic M.	0 : 2
3	Atmane T.	Dimitrov G.	2 : 0
4	Jodar R. (WC)	Norrie C. (7)	2 : 0
5	Ruud C. (3)	Wu Y. (Q)	0 : 2
6	Mannarino A.	Shimabukuro S. (Q)	0 : 2
7	Duckworth J.	Svrcina D.	0 : 2
8	Pacheco Mendez R. (WC)	Cobolli F. (5)	0 : 2
9	Tiafoe F. (8)	Borges N.	2 : 0
10	Walton A.	Kovacevic A.	0 : 2
11	Hijikata R. (LL)	Bellucci M.	0 : 2
12	Altmaier D.	Davidovich Fokina A. (4)	0 : 2
13	Vacherot V. (6)	Wong C. (LL)	2 : 1
14	Dzumhur D.	Monfils G. (WC)	0 : 2
15	Nakashima B.	Ymer E. (Q)	2 : 0
16	Kypson P. (Q)	De Minaur A. (2)	2 : 1

1/8-finals

1	Zverev A. (1)	Kecmanovic M.	1 : 2
2	Atmane T.	Jodar R.	2 : 1
3	Wu Y.	Shimabukuro S.	2 : 0
4	Svrcina D.	Cobolli F. (5)	0 : 2
5	Tiafoe F. (8)	Kovacevic A.	2 : 1
6	Bellucci M.	Davidovich Fokina A. (4)	2 : 0
7	Vacherot V. (6)	Monfils G.	2 : 0
8	Nakashima B.	Kypson P.	2 : 0

Quarter-finals

1	Kecmanovic M.	Atmane T.	2 : 0
2	Wu Y.	Cobolli F. (5)	0 : 2
3	Tiafoe F. (8)	Bellucci M.	2 : 0
4	Vacherot V. (6)	Nakashima B.	1 : 2

Semi-finals

1	Kecmanovic M.	Cobolli F. (5)	1 : 2
2	Tiafoe F. (8)	Nakashima B.	2 : 1

Final

1

Cobolli F. (5)

Tiafoe F. (8)

2 : 0