Result
4:2
03/01/2026 at 12:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga 3 - Round 15
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Portugal | Canal 11 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 52% | 48% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 6 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 7 |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 2 | 8 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 7 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 1)
- 2', 1 - 0, Ninte M. ⚽, Neves L. (A),
- 5', Monteiro E. 🟨,
- 20', 2 - 0, Niang M. ⚽, Andrey (A),
- 42', 2 - 1, Monteiro E. ⚽, Tarzan (A),
- 2nd Half (2 - 1)
- 46', Andrey ↓, Pinto R. ↑,
- 52', Beni D. ↓, Ferreira J. ↑,
- 53', 3 - 1, Iheanacho S. ⚽,
- 60', Maneta D. ↓, Ewandro Santos ↑,
- 61', Magalhaes M. ↓, Alexandre R. ↑,
- 64', Yordy Marcelo 🟨,
- 67', Ninte M. ↓, Precatado J. ↑,
- 73', Gata J. ↓, Farinha L. ↑,
- 80', Goncas ↓, Chaves G. ↑,
- 80', Niang M. ↓, Matos R. ↑,
- 80', Iheanacho S. ↓, Moreira R. ↑,
- 84', Matos R. 🟨,
- 89', 3 - 2, Chaves G. ⚽,
- 90+1', 4 - 2, Matos R. ⚽,
- 90+2', Matos R. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Mafra
43.2% | Draw
29.1% | Caldas
27.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Mafra has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.3%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Mafra's form might have worsened.Caldas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Caldas's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mafra than the current prediction. (+12.2%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mafra, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Caldas than the current prediction. (-8.7%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Caldas, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Mafra - Caldas Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.12 ↑
(1.73) |
3.15 ↓
(3.31) |
3.3 ↓
(4.54) |
9.3%
(10%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Mafra - Caldas?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Mafra (votes: 1 - 100%).
Users Predictions:
Mafra will win
(5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga 3 (Promotion Group: ) and 5 in the zone Liga 3 (Relegation Group: )).
- Recent performances by Mafra have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Caldas is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
- Recently, Caldas has had a series of home games.
- In this match, Mafra is seen as the favorite.
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mafra won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:5. (average 1.8:1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Mafra won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2. (average 2:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Mafra won against Caldas?
Mafra has won 1 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Caldas won against Mafra?
Caldas has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Mafra - Caldas were as follows:
28.09.2025
Caldas
-
Mafra
1:1
27.07.2024
Caldas
-
Mafra
0:2
Portuguese Liga 3 Table
Promotion Group | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Vitoria Guimaraes B | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6:3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Academica | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6:4 | 2 | 6 |
| 3 | Amarante | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4:3 | 1 | 6 |
| 4 | Varzim | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4:5 | -1 | 6 |
| 5 | Os Belenenses | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6:6 | 0 | 5 |
| 6 | Mafra | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2:2 | 0 | 4 |
| 7 | Santarem | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:5 | -2 | 3 |
| 8 | Trofense | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2:5 | -3 | 2 |
Promotion ~ Liga Portugal 2
Promotion ~ Liga Portugal 2 (Promotion: )
