USA W vs Canada W, Winter Olympic Games - Ice Hockey Women

19/02/2026 at 13:10 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))

Santa Giulia Ice Hockey Arena (Milan).

Olympic Games Women - Play Offs - Final
Where to Watch on TV:


Belgium	HBO Max, HBO Max
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	HBO Max
Bulgaria	HBO Max
Croatia	HBO Max
Czech-republic	CT sport, Eurosport 2, HBO Max, Oneplay
Denmark	DR 2, DR TV, HBO Max
Finland	HBO Max
France	HBO Max
Hungary	HBO Max
Moldova	HBO Max
Montenegro	HBO Max
Netherlands	HBO Max
North-macedonia	HBO Max
Norway	HBO Max
Poland	HBO Max, TVP Sport
Romania	HBO Max
Serbia	HBO Max
Slovakia	STVR Sport
Slovenia	HBO Max
Spain	HBO Max
Sweden	HBO Max
Switzerland	SRF 2, SRF 2
Ukraine	Suspilne Sport
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+
Usa	NBC Sports App, Peacock

Match Stats


Shots on Goal
33	31
Shooting PCT
6.06% (2/33)	3.23% (1/31)
Goalkeeper Saves
30	31
Saves PCT
96.77% (30/31)	93.94% (31/33)
Penalties
3	1
PIM
6	2
Power-play Goals
0	0
Shorthanded Goals
0	1
Power-play PCT
0% (0/1)	0% (0/3)
Pen. Killing PCT
100% (3/3)	100% (1/1)
Faceoffs Won
34	33
Faceoffs %
50.75	49.25
Empty Net Goals
0	0

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Period (0 - 0)
05:33, (2 min),
15:05, Dunne J. (2 min),
19:45, Shelton E. (2 min),
2nd Period (0 - 1)
00:54, 0 - 1, O'Neill K. (G), Stacey L. (A), Fast R. (A2)
3rd Period (1 - 0)
13:37, Curl-Salemme B. (2 min),
17:56, 1 - 1, Knight H. (G), Edwards L. (A), Keller M. (A2)
Overtime (1 - 0)
04:07, 2 - 1, Keller M. (G), Heise T. (A),

Chances of winning

USA W
68.7%

Draw
17.4%

Canada W
13.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.3%

17.8%

14.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.3%

19.5%

16.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

USA W has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Canada W has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for USA W than the current prediction. (-7.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with USA W that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Canada W than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

USA W - Canada W Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.37 ↓ (1.39)	5.4 ↑ (5.25)	6.78 ↑ (6.3)	6.5% (6.9%)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.25

What is the prediction for USA W - Canada W?

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. USA will win (votes: 15 - 93.8%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 6.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for USA: 82% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

O/U 1.5, 1st Period - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): USA W will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 4:1.

Preview Facts

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, USA won 5.
USA is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).
Canada is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
Canada may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
In this match, USA is the obvious favorite.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, USA won 11 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 68:56. (average 3.4:2.8).

How many head-to-head matches has USA W won against Canada W?

USA W has won 12 of their last 26 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Canada W won against USA W?

Canada W has won 14 of their last 26 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between USA W - Canada W were as follows:

10.02.2026 Canada W - USA W 0:5

13.12.2025 Canada W - USA W 1:4

10.12.2025 Canada W - USA W 4:10

08.11.2025 USA W - Canada W 6:1

06.11.2025 USA W - Canada W 4:1

Latest results of USA W

16.02.2026 USA W - Sweden W 5:0 ✺

13.02.2026 USA W - Italy W 6:0 ✺

10.02.2026 Canada W - USA W 0:5 ✺

09.02.2026 Switzerland W - USA W 0:5 ✺

07.02.2026 USA W - Finland W 5:0 ✺

Latest results of Canada W

16.02.2026 Canada W - Switzerland W 2:1 ✺

14.02.2026 Canada W - Germany W 5:1 ✺

12.02.2026 Finland W - Canada W 0:5 ✺

10.02.2026 Canada W - USA W 0:5 ✺

09.02.2026 Canada W - Czech Republic W 5:1 ✺

Draw

Final tournament

Quarter-finals

1	USA W (A1)	Italy W (B3)	6 : 0
2	Czech Republic W (A3)	Sweden W (B1)	0 : 2
3	Canada W (A2)	Germany W (B2)	5 : 1
4	Finland W (A4)	Switzerland W (A5)	0 : 1

Semi-finals

1	USA W (A1)	Sweden W (B1)	5 : 0
2	Canada W (A2)	Switzerland W (A5)	2 : 1

Final

1

USA W (A1)

Canada W (A2)

2 : 1

3rd place

2

Switzerland W (A5)

Sweden W (B1)