Casey Scorpions vs Box Hill Hawks – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Aussie rules VFL Casey Scorpions - Box Hill Hawks
Result
88:65
16/08/2025 at 23:05 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • VFL - Round 21

Match Stats

Goals
129
Behinds
1611

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Quarter (8 - 25)
  • 2nd Quarter (29 - 19)
  • 3rd Quarter (37 - 9)
  • 4th Quarter (14 - 12)

Chances of winning


Casey Scorpions
36.1%
Box Hill Hawks
63.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
36.7% 63.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

9.3% 90.7%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Casey Scorpions has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)
  • Box Hill Hawks has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Casey Scorpions than the current prediction. (-26.8%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Casey Scorpions that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Box Hill Hawks than the current prediction. (+26.8%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Box Hill Hawks could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
  • Casey Scorpions - Box Hill Hawks Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.56
    (2.5)

    1.45
    (1.45)
    8.3%
    (9%)
  • The most likely Handicap: 2 (-13)
  • Preview Facts
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Casey won 4.
    • In recent matches, Casey has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
    • Box Hill is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
    • Casey may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • Box Hill will hold a modest advantage in this match.
    • We predict that Box Hill will win today's game, with odds of 1.45.
    • In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Casey won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 1109:1092. (average 79.2:78).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Casey won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 386:357. (average 77.2:71.4).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Casey Scorpions - Box Hill Hawks were as follows:
    23.03.2024 Casey Scorpions - Box Hill Hawks 46:87
    Latest results of Casey Scorpions
    Latest results of Box Hill Hawks
    09.08.2025 Box Hill Hawks - Footscray 54:73
    20.07.2025 Williamstown - Box Hill Hawks 82:92
    06.07.2025 Box Hill Hawks - Sandringham 100:56
    14.06.2025 Coburg - Box Hill Hawks 50:88
    Draw
    Play Offs

    1/16-finals
    1Footscray (1)Bye
    2Frankston (4)Bye
    3Brisbane 2 (6)Bye
    4Richmond Tigers 2 (8)GWS Giants 2 (9)116 : 98
    5Box Hill (2)Bye
    6Southport (3)Bye
    7Casey (5)Bye
    8Collingwood Magpies 2 (7)Williamstown (10)