Result
1:1
15/10/2025 at 19:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 28
- Referee: Sampaio S. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 China | K-Ball |
 Mexico | Fanatiz |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.50 | 0.71 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 58% | 42% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 17 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 8 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 7 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (343/406) | 78% (228/291) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.50 | 0.71 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.92 | 1.48 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 17 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 8 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 12 | 9 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 7 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 35 | 29 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 17 | 13 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (343/406) | 78% (228/291) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 54% (20/37) | 53% (24/45) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 73% (108/148) | 67% (69/103) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 31% (8/26) | 26% (5/19) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.37 | 0.57 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 11 | 17 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 13 | 17 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 43% (3/7) | 36% (5/14) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 39 | 45 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 33 | 36 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 6 | 14 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.48 | 1.92 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.48 | 0.92 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 6', Derik Lacerda 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 46', Lucas Mugni 🟨,
- 50', Aderlan 🟨,
- 63', Pedro Augusto ↓, Oliveira S. ↑,
- 69', Lucas Mugni ↓, Vina ↑,
- 73', Silva J. ↓, Igor Carius ↑,
- 73', Matheusinho ↓, Chrystian Barletta ↑,
- 74', Igor Carius 🟨,
- 75', Matheus Bahia ↓, Ramos R. ↑,
- 75', Fernandinho ↓, Pedro Henrique ↑,
- 81', Rafael Thyere 🟨,
- 83', 0 - 1, Pedro Raul ⚽, Pedro Henrique (A),
- 84', Pedro Raul 🟨,
- 85', Ze Lucas ↓, Pablo ↑,
- 85', Galeano A. ↓, Paulo Baya ↑,
- 85', Pedro Raul ↓, Richardson ↑,
- 87', 1 - 1, Igor Carius ⚽, Lucas Lima (A),
Chances of winning
Sport Recife
38.7% | Draw
30.5% | Ceará
30.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Sport Recife has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)Ceará has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sport Recife than the current prediction. (+3.2%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ceará than the current prediction. (-3.5%)
Sport Recife - Ceará Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.47 ↑
(2.34) |
3.14 ↑
(2.99) |
3.09 ↓
(3.28) |
4.7%
(6.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Sport Recife - Ceará?
Users Predictions:
20 users predict this event. Recife will win (votes: 6 - 30%). Ceará will win (votes: 5 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 45%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 23.2% – 66.8%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 5 high ROI users predict this event. Recife (votes: 1 - 20%). Tie (votes: 4 - 80%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet and 10 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Recife won 2.
- Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
- Ceará may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
- There will not play in Recife: Denis
(Knee Injury)
Hereda
(Health problems)
Ramon Menezes
(Yellow Cards)
Rivera C.
(Yellow Cards)
- There are questionable in Recife: Aderlan
(Injury)
Hyoran
(Injury)
Ze Roberto
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Ceará: Diego
(Injury)
Lucas Lima
(Inactive)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Recife won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 18:25. (average 0.9:1.3).
- Including home matches between the teams, Recife won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:10. (average 1.2:1.1).
How many head-to-head matches has Sport Recife won against Ceará?
Sport Recife has won 3 of their last 10 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Ceará won against Sport Recife?
Ceará has won 5 of their last 10 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Sport Recife - Ceará were as follows:
09.07.2025
Sport Recife
-
Ceará
0:1
17.05.2025
Ceará
-
Sport Recife
2:0
07.10.2024
Sport Recife
-
Ceará
2:1
20.06.2024
Ceará
-
Sport Recife
0:0
10.04.2024
Sport Recife
-
Ceará
2:1
Latest results of Sport Recife
Brazilian Serie A Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Palmeiras | 28 | 19 | 4 | 5 | 53:26 | 27 | 61 |
| 2 | Flamengo RJ | 28 | 18 | 7 | 3 | 56:15 | 41 | 61 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 29 | 16 | 8 | 5 | 42:21 | 21 | 56 |
| 4 | Mirassol | 29 | 14 | 10 | 5 | 50:30 | 20 | 52 |
| 5 | Bahia | 29 | 14 | 7 | 8 | 40:32 | 8 | 49 |
| 6 | Botafogo RJ | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 39:26 | 13 | 46 |
| 7 | Fluminense | 28 | 12 | 5 | 11 | 35:35 | 0 | 41 |
| 8 | Vasco | 29 | 11 | 6 | 12 | 46:41 | 5 | 39 |
| 9 | Sao Paulo | 29 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 31:33 | -2 | 38 |
| 10 | Bragantino | 29 | 10 | 6 | 13 | 34:44 | -10 | 36 |
| 11 | Corinthians | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 31:35 | -4 | 36 |
| 12 | Gremio | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 30:37 | -7 | 36 |
| 13 | Ceara | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 27:27 | 0 | 35 |
| 14 | Internacional | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 35:42 | -7 | 35 |
| 15 | Atletico-MG | 28 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 26:32 | -6 | 33 |
| 16 | Santos | 28 | 8 | 7 | 13 | 28:40 | -12 | 31 |
| 17 | Vitoria | 29 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 27:43 | -16 | 31 |
| 18 | Juventude | 29 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 23:53 | -30 | 26 |
| 19 | Fortaleza | 28 | 6 | 6 | 16 | 26:44 | -18 | 24 |
| 20 | Sport Recife | 28 | 2 | 11 | 15 | 21:44 | -23 | 17 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet
