Cerezo Osaka vs Albirex Niigata – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Japan J1 League Cerezo Osaka - Albirex Niigata
Result
3:1
11/08/2025 at 06:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • J1 League - Round 25
  • Where to Watch on TV:
australiaAustraliaStan Sport
chinaChinaK-Ball
hong-kongHong-kongmyTV SUPER
indiaIndiaFanCode, FanCode
japanJapanDAZN Japan

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.800.49
Ball Possession
52%48%
Total shots
2610
Shots on target
52
Big Chances
21
Corner Kicks
124
Passes
88% (429/489)85% (390/460)
Yellow Cards
01
Expected Goals (xG)
1.800.49
xG on target (xGOT)
1.260.36
Total shots
2610
Shots on target
52
Shots off target
114
Blocked Shots
104
Shots inside the Box
137
Shots outside the Box
133
Hit the Woodwork
10
Big Chances
21
Corner Kicks
124
Touches in opposition box
3917
Accurate through passes
10
Offsides
20
Free Kicks
82
Passes
88% (429/489)85% (390/460)
Long passes
49% (17/35)52% (25/48)
Passes in final third
79% (140/177)69% (63/91)
Crosses
23% (5/22)53% (8/15)
Expected assists (xA)
1.611.01
Throw-ins
2419
Fouls
28
Tackles
62% (8/13)63% (12/19)
Duels won
3535
Clearances
2034
Interceptions
69
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
01
Goalkeeper Saves
12
xGOT faced
0.361.26
Goals prevented
-0.64-0.74

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 1)
  • 2', 0 - 1, Horigome Y. ,
  • 13', 1 - 1, Nakajima M. , Fernandes L. (A),
  • 2nd Half (2 - 0)
  • 54', 2 - 1, Fernandes L. , Homma S. (A),
  • 61', Kasai K. , Shimamura T. ,
  • 61', Horigome Y. , Hashimoto K. ,
  • 71', Nakajima M. , Rafael Ratao ,
  • 71', Homma S. , Thiago Andrade ,
  • 73', Okumura J. , Taniguchi K. ,
  • 73', Arai T. , Uemura H. ,
  • 78', Kida H. , Yoshino K. ,
  • 78', Inoue R. , Nishio R. ,
  • 78', Fujiwara S. 🟨,
  • 81', 3 - 1, Fujiwara S. (Own goal),
  • 82', Shirai E. , Yamura K. ,
  • 84', Shibayama M. , Kagawa S. ,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Cerezo Osaka
53.6%
Draw
24.6%
Albirex Niigata
21.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
57.1% 23.1% 19.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.4% 22.6% 19.4%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Cerezo Osaka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)
  • Albirex Niigata has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cerezo Osaka than the current prediction. (+4.8%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Albirex Niigata than the current prediction. (-2.4%)
  • Cerezo Osaka - Albirex Niigata Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.84
    (1.66)
    3.96
    (4.09)
    4.43
    (4.78)
    2.1%
    (5.8%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
  • What is the prediction for Cerezo Osaka - Albirex Niigata?
  • Users Predictions: Cerezo Osaka will win (30 of 34 users predict this - 88.24%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 77.41%99.07%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Cerezo Osaka will win (10 of 10 users predict this - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 10 and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ J2 League).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cerezo Osaka won 1.
    • Cerezo Osaka has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).
    • Niigata is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
    • Cerezo Osaka may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • In this match, Cerezo Osaka is seen as the favorite.
    • There will not play in Cerezo Osaka: Hirano Y. (Knee Injury) Noborizato K. (Inactive) Takahashi N. (Foot Injury) Uejo S. (Knee Injury)
    • There will not play in Niigata: Fitzgerald M. (Yellow Cards)
    • There are questionable in Niigata: Hashimoto K. (Injury)
    • In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Cerezo Osaka won 8 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 19:14. (average 1.2:0.9).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Cerezo Osaka won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:6. (average 1.5:0.8).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Cerezo Osaka - Albirex Niigata were as follows:
    02.03.2025 Albirex Niigata - Cerezo Osaka 2:2
    20.07.2024 Cerezo Osaka - Albirex Niigata 1:2
    07.04.2024 Albirex Niigata - Cerezo Osaka 0:1
    03.12.2023 Albirex Niigata - Cerezo Osaka 1:0
    18.02.2023 Cerezo Osaka - Albirex Niigata 2:2
    Latest results of Cerezo Osaka
    Latest results of Albirex Niigata
    Japan J1 League Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Kashima Antlers27163840:261451
    2Machida28155842:261650
    3Kashiwa Reysol27148540:271350
    4Vissel Kobe28155836:261050
    5Sanfrecce Hiroshima28154933:191449
    6Kyoto26146643:301348
    7Urawa Reds27128738:30844
    8Kawasaki Frontale27119745:351042
    9Okayama271161026:23339
    10Cerezo Osaka27108941:38338
    11Avispa Fukuoka27910827:26137
    12Gamba Osaka281141333:40-737
    13Shimizu S-Pulse27881130:35-532
    14Verdy27871216:28-1231
    15FC Tokyo26861229:37-830
    16Nagoya Grampus27771333:41-828
    17Yokohama F. Marinos27671426:34-825
    18Shonan Bellmare27671422:42-2025
    19Yokohama FC27641718:35-1722
    20Albirex Niigata27481527:47-2020

          Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ AFC Champions League 2
          Relegation ~ J2 League