Cerezo Osaka vs Albirex Niigata – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

11/08/2025 at 06:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Yodoko Sakura Stadium (Osaka).

J1 League - Round 25
Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Stan Sport
China	K-Ball
Hong-kong	myTV SUPER
India	FanCode, FanCode
Japan	DAZN Japan

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
1.80	0.49
Ball Possession
52%	48%
Total shots
26	10
Shots on target
5	2
Big Chances
2	1
Corner Kicks
12	4
Passes
88% (429/489)	85% (390/460)
Yellow Cards
0	1
Expected Goals (xG)
1.80	0.49
xG on target (xGOT)
1.26	0.36
Total shots
26	10
Shots on target
5	2
Shots off target
11	4
Blocked Shots
10	4
Shots inside the Box
13	7
Shots outside the Box
13	3
Hit the Woodwork
1	0
Big Chances
2	1
Corner Kicks
12	4
Touches in opposition box
39	17
Accurate through passes
1	0
Offsides
2	0
Free Kicks
8	2
Passes
88% (429/489)	85% (390/460)
Long passes
49% (17/35)	52% (25/48)
Passes in final third
79% (140/177)	69% (63/91)
Crosses
23% (5/22)	53% (8/15)
Expected assists (xA)
1.61	1.01
Throw-ins
24	19
Fouls
2	8
Tackles
62% (8/13)	63% (12/19)
Duels won
35	35
Clearances
20	34
Interceptions
6	9
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	1
Goalkeeper Saves
1	2
xGOT faced
0.36	1.26
Goals prevented
-0.64	-0.74

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (1 - 1)
2', 0 - 1, Horigome Y. ⚽,
13', 1 - 1, Nakajima M. ⚽, Fernandes L. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
54', 2 - 1, Fernandes L. ⚽, Homma S. (A),
61', Kasai K. ↓, Shimamura T. ↑,
61', Horigome Y. ↓, Hashimoto K. ↑,
71', Nakajima M. ↓, Rafael Ratao ↑,
71', Homma S. ↓, Thiago Andrade ↑,
73', Okumura J. ↓, Taniguchi K. ↑,
73', Arai T. ↓, Uemura H. ↑,
78', Kida H. ↓, Yoshino K. ↑,
78', Inoue R. ↓, Nishio R. ↑,
78', Fujiwara S. 🟨,
81', 3 - 1, Fujiwara S. (Own goal),
82', Shirai E. ↓, Yamura K. ↑,
84', Shibayama M. ↓, Kagawa S. ↑,

Highlights

Chances of winning

Cerezo Osaka
53.6%

Draw
24.6%

Albirex Niigata
21.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.1%

23.1%

19.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.4%

22.6%

19.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cerezo Osaka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

Albirex Niigata has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cerezo Osaka than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Albirex Niigata than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Cerezo Osaka - Albirex Niigata Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.84 ↑ (1.66)	3.96 ↓ (4.09)	4.43 ↓ (4.78)	2.1% (5.8%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

What is the prediction for Cerezo Osaka - Albirex Niigata?

Users Predictions: Cerezo Osaka will win (30 of 34 users predict this - 88.24%).
Confidence interval (95%): 77.41% – 99.07%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Cerezo Osaka will win (10 of 10 users predict this - 100%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.

Preview Facts

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 10 and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ J2 League).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cerezo Osaka won 1.
Cerezo Osaka has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).
Niigata is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
Cerezo Osaka may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
In this match, Cerezo Osaka is seen as the favorite.
There will not play in Cerezo Osaka: Hirano Y. (Knee Injury) Noborizato K. (Inactive) Takahashi N. (Foot Injury) Uejo S. (Knee Injury)
There will not play in Niigata: Fitzgerald M. (Yellow Cards)
There are questionable in Niigata: Hashimoto K. (Injury)
In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Cerezo Osaka won 8 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 19:14. (average 1.2:0.9).
Including home matches between the teams, Cerezo Osaka won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:6. (average 1.5:0.8).

How many head-to-head matches has Cerezo Osaka won against Albirex Niigata?

Cerezo Osaka has won 1 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Albirex Niigata won against Cerezo Osaka?

Albirex Niigata has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Cerezo Osaka - Albirex Niigata were as follows:

02.03.2025 Albirex Niigata - Cerezo Osaka 2:2

20.07.2024 Cerezo Osaka - Albirex Niigata 1:2

07.04.2024 Albirex Niigata - Cerezo Osaka 0:1

03.12.2023 Albirex Niigata - Cerezo Osaka 1:0

18.02.2023 Cerezo Osaka - Albirex Niigata 2:2

Latest results of Cerezo Osaka

06.08.2025 Tokyo - Cerezo Osaka 2:1 ✺

19.07.2025 Shonan Bellmare - Cerezo Osaka 3:3 ✺

16.07.2025 Cerezo Osaka - Tokushima Vortis 2:0 ✺

05.07.2025 Cerezo Osaka - Gamba Osaka 0:1 ✺

21.06.2025 Cerezo Osaka - Tokyo Verdy 2:1 ✺

Latest results of Albirex Niigata

20.07.2025 Albirex Niigata - Sanfrecce Hiroshima 0:2 ✺

05.07.2025 Kyoto Sanga - Albirex Niigata 2:1 ✺

29.06.2025 Albirex Niigata - Machida Zelvia 0:4 ✺

25.06.2025 Kawasaki Frontale - Albirex Niigata 3:1 ✺

21.06.2025 Avispa Fukuoka - Albirex Niigata 3:2 ✺

Japan J1 League Table

2025

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Kashima Antlers	35	20	7	8	53:29	24	67
2	Kashiwa Reysol	35	18	12	5	55:33	22	66
3	Kyoto	35	17	11	7	59:37	22	62
4	Vissel Kobe	34	18	7	9	43:28	15	61
5	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	35	17	8	10	39:26	13	59
6	Machida	35	16	9	10	49:35	14	57
7	Kawasaki Frontale	35	15	11	9	65:50	15	56
8	Urawa Reds	35	14	11	10	40:36	4	53
9	Gamba Osaka	35	16	5	14	48:52	-4	53
10	Cerezo Osaka	35	13	10	12	54:50	4	49
11	FC Tokyo	35	12	9	14	39:47	-8	45
12	Shimizu S-Pulse	35	11	11	13	39:44	-5	44
13	Verdy	35	11	9	15	22:36	-14	42
14	Avispa Fukuoka	34	10	11	13	32:37	-5	41
15	Okayama	35	11	8	16	31:40	-9	41
16	Nagoya Grampus	35	10	10	15	42:52	-10	40
17	Yokohama F. Marinos	35	10	7	18	39:44	-5	37
18	Yokohama FC	35	8	8	19	23:41	-18	32
19	Shonan Bellmare	34	6	8	20	29:58	-29	26
20	Albirex Niigata	34	4	10	20	30:56	-26	22

      Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ AFC Champions League 2
      Relegation ~ J2 League