Result
2:1
11/01/2026 at 10:15 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- LaLiga2 - Round 21
- Referee: Mallo E. (Esp)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Argentina | DSports 6 |
 Ecuador | DSports 6 |
 Mexico | Sky Sport |
 North-central-america | Sky Sports Norte |
 South-america | DGO Latin America |
 Spain | DAZN Espana, LaLiga Hypermotion |
 Uruguay | DSports 6 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.46 | 0.32 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 50% | 50% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 18 | 3 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 2 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 85% (373/440) | 80% (353/439) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.46 | 0.32 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 3.06 | 0.90 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 18 | 3 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 6 | 0 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 11 | 2 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 7 | 1 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 6 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 30 | 14 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 85% (373/440) | 80% (353/439) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 52% (25/48) | 51% (20/39) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 70% (70/100) | 62% (61/99) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 24% (4/17) | 21% (4/19) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.60 | 1.09 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 18 | 31 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 6 | 11 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 45% (10/22) | 63% (17/27) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 50 | 48 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 21 | 25 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 14 | 6 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 1 | 6 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.90 | 3.06 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.10 | 1.06 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 1)
- 3', 0 - 1, Zalazar K. ⚽, Rodriguez C. (A),
- 6', Lorenzo D. 🟨,
- 19', Zalazar K. 🟨,
- 26', Jamelli ↓, Bodiger Y. ↑,
- 43', 1 - 1, Chupe (Penalty Awarded),
- 45+1', 2 - 1, Chupe ⚽,
- 45+4', Gonzalez D. 🟨,
- 45+6', Dotor C. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 65', Ahmed A. ↓, Bassinga A. ↑,
- 65', Dotor C. ↓, Ochoa A. ↑,
- 65', Youness ↓, Sanchez S. ↑,
- 65', Rodriguez C. ↓, Domenech M. ↑,
- 71', Chupe (Penalty Awarded),
- 78', Lorenzo D. ↓, Nino A. ↑,
- 78', Munoz J. ↓, Rodriguez R. ↑,
- 78', Kone K. ↓, Ortuno J. ↑,
- 85', Larrubia D. ↓, Abaida H. ↑,
- 85', Chupe ↓, Lobete J. ↑,
- 87', Rodriguez R. 🟨,
- 90+1', Ochoa A. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Málaga
45% | Draw
28.7% | Ceuta
26.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Málaga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)Ceuta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Málaga than the current prediction. (-1.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ceuta than the current prediction. (+1.8%)
Málaga - Ceuta Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.09 ↓
(2.16) |
3.22 ↓
(3.33) |
3.56 ↑
(3.4) |
7%
(5.7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Málaga - Ceuta?
Users Predictions:
31 users predict this event. Málaga will win (votes: 23 - 74.2%). Ceuta will win (votes: 3 - 9.7%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 16.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Málaga: 58.8% – 89.6%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- AH 0 - Málaga (1.50) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- AH -1 - Málaga (3.22) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- AH -0.25 - Málaga (1.79) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH +0.75 - Málaga (1.18) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH +0.5 - Málaga (1.30) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH +0.25 - Málaga (1.37) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Málaga will win (13 of 14 users predict this - 92.86%) 🥇 Gold Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 21 high ROI users predict this event. Málaga (votes: 20 - 95.2%). Tie (votes: 1 - 4.8%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- A great opportunity to watch a clash of neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 10 and 8)
- Málaga has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- In recent matches, Ceuta has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Ceuta may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Málaga will hold a modest advantage in this match.
- There will not play in Málaga: Brasanac D.
(Knee Injury)
Diarra M.
(Knee Injury)
Dorrio J.
(Muscle Injury)
Enriquez R.
(Knee Injury)
Luismi
(Face Injury)
Pastor A.
(Knee Injury)
Sanchez D.
(Injury)
- There will not play in Ceuta: Fernandez Sanchez M.
(Knee Injury)
Sanchez M.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Málaga: Larrubia D.
(Injury)
- In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Málaga won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:4. (average 1.5:2).
- Including home match between the teams, Málaga won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.
How many head-to-head matches has Málaga won against Ceuta?
Málaga has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Ceuta won against Málaga?
Ceuta has won 1 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Málaga - Ceuta were as follows:
07.04.2024
Málaga
-
Ceuta
1:1
14.01.2024
Ceuta
-
Málaga
3:2
Spanish LaLiga2 Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Racing Santander | 28 | 16 | 5 | 7 | 56:36 | 20 | 53 |
| 2 | Castellon | 28 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 46:29 | 17 | 49 |
| 3 | Almeria | 28 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 53:40 | 13 | 49 |
| 4 | Dep. La Coruna | 28 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 44:31 | 13 | 49 |
| 5 | Malaga | 28 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 41:31 | 10 | 47 |
| 6 | Las Palmas | 28 | 11 | 12 | 5 | 34:22 | 12 | 45 |
| 7 | Ceuta | 28 | 13 | 5 | 10 | 36:39 | -3 | 44 |
| 8 | Burgos CF | 28 | 12 | 7 | 9 | 30:26 | 4 | 43 |
| 9 | Gijon | 28 | 12 | 6 | 10 | 38:36 | 2 | 42 |
| 10 | Cordoba | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 38:37 | 1 | 41 |
| 11 | Eibar | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 31:30 | 1 | 38 |
| 12 | Andorra | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 35:40 | -5 | 35 |
| 13 | Albacete | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 33:39 | -6 | 35 |
| 14 | Cadiz CF | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 29:35 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 | Leganes | 28 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 29:28 | 1 | 34 |
| 16 | Real Sociedad B | 28 | 9 | 7 | 12 | 38:39 | -1 | 34 |
| 17 | Granada CF | 28 | 7 | 11 | 10 | 32:33 | -1 | 32 |
| 18 | Valladolid | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 29:38 | -9 | 32 |
| 19 | Huesca | 28 | 8 | 6 | 14 | 26:37 | -11 | 30 |
| 20 | Cultural Leonesa | 28 | 7 | 6 | 15 | 27:44 | -17 | 27 |
| 21 | Mirandes | 28 | 6 | 6 | 16 | 28:45 | -17 | 24 |
| 22 | Zaragoza | 28 | 5 | 9 | 14 | 23:41 | -18 | 24 |
Promotion ~ LaLiga
Promotion ~ LaLiga2 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Relegation
