Málaga vs Ceuta – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

11/01/2026 at 10:15 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))

Estadio La Rosaleda (Málaga).

LaLiga2 - Round 21
Referee: Mallo E. (Esp)
Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DSports 6
Ecuador	DSports 6
Mexico	Sky Sport
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
South-america	DGO Latin America
Spain	DAZN Espana, LaLiga Hypermotion
Uruguay	DSports 6

Match Stats


Expected goals (xG)
2.46	0.32
Ball possession
50%	50%
Total shots
18	3
Shots on target
8	2
Big chances
2	1
Corner kicks
6	6
Passes
85% (373/440)	80% (353/439)
Yellow cards
4	2
Expected goals (xG)
2.46	0.32
xG on target (xGOT)
3.06	0.90
Total shots
18	3
Shots on target
8	2
Shots off target
4	1
Blocked shots
6	0
Shots inside the box
11	2
Shots outside the box
7	1
Hit the woodwork
0	0
Headed goals
0	1
Big chances
2	1
Corner kicks
6	6
Touches in opposition box
30	14
Accurate through passes
1	0
Offsides
1	1
Free kicks
11	6
Passes
85% (373/440)	80% (353/439)
Long passes
52% (25/48)	51% (20/39)
Passes in final third
70% (70/100)	62% (61/99)
Crosses
24% (4/17)	21% (4/19)
Expected assists (xA)
0.60	1.09
Throw ins
18	31
Fouls
6	11
Tackles
45% (10/22)	63% (17/27)
Duels won
50	48
Clearances
21	25
Interceptions
14	6
Errors leading to shot
0	1
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper saves
1	6
xGOT faced
0.90	3.06
Goals prevented
-0.10	1.06

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (2 - 1)
3', 0 - 1, Zalazar K. ⚽, Rodriguez C. (A),
6', Lorenzo D. 🟨,
19', Zalazar K. 🟨,
26', Jamelli ↓, Bodiger Y. ↑,
43', 1 - 1, Chupe (Penalty Awarded),
45+1', 2 - 1, Chupe ⚽,
45+4', Gonzalez D. 🟨,
45+6', Dotor C. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
65', Ahmed A. ↓, Bassinga A. ↑,
65', Dotor C. ↓, Ochoa A. ↑,
65', Youness ↓, Sanchez S. ↑,
65', Rodriguez C. ↓, Domenech M. ↑,
71', Chupe (Penalty Awarded),
78', Lorenzo D. ↓, Nino A. ↑,
78', Munoz J. ↓, Rodriguez R. ↑,
78', Kone K. ↓, Ortuno J. ↑,
85', Larrubia D. ↓, Abaida H. ↑,
85', Chupe ↓, Lobete J. ↑,
87', Rodriguez R. 🟨,
90+1', Ochoa A. 🟨,

Chances of winning

Málaga
45%

Draw
28.7%

Ceuta
26.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.8%

28.4%

27.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.3%

28.7%

28.1%

Málaga - Ceuta Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.09 ↓ (2.16)	3.22 ↓ (3.33)	3.56 ↑ (3.4)	7% (5.7%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

What is the prediction for Málaga - Ceuta?

Users Predictions: 31 users predict this event. Málaga will win (votes: 23 - 74.2%). Ceuta will win (votes: 3 - 9.7%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 16.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Málaga: 58.8% – 89.6%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH 0 - Málaga (1.50) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Málaga (3.22) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH -0.25 - Málaga (1.79) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.75 - Málaga (1.18) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Málaga (1.30) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.25 - Málaga (1.37) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Málaga will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 15 high ROI users predict this event. Málaga (votes: 14 - 93.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 6.7%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

A great opportunity to watch a clash of neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 10 and 8)
Málaga has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).
In recent matches, Ceuta has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
Ceuta may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
Málaga will hold a modest advantage in this match.
There will not play in Málaga: Brasanac D. (Knee Injury) Diarra M. (Knee Injury) Dorrio J. (Muscle Injury) Enriquez R. (Knee Injury) Luismi (Face Injury) Pastor A. (Knee Injury) Sanchez D. (Injury)
There will not play in Ceuta: Fernandez Sanchez M. (Knee Injury) Sanchez M. (Injury)
There are questionable in Málaga: Larrubia D. (Injury)
In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Málaga won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:4. (average 1.5:2).
Including home match between the teams, Málaga won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

How many head-to-head matches has Málaga won against Ceuta?

Málaga has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Ceuta won against Málaga?

Ceuta has won 1 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Málaga - Ceuta were as follows:

07.04.2024 Málaga - Ceuta 1:1

14.01.2024 Ceuta - Málaga 3:2

Latest results of Málaga

05.01.2026 Málaga - Telstar Canceled ✺

04.01.2026 Sporting de Gijón - Málaga 1:3 ✺

21.12.2025 Málaga - Almería 2:1 ✺

14.12.2025 Albacete Balompié - Málaga 1:3 ✺

08.12.2025 Málaga - Zaragoza 1:1 ✺

Latest results of Ceuta

04.01.2026 Ceuta - FC Andorra 2:1 ✺

21.12.2025 Real Sociedad B - Ceuta 1:3 ✺

14.12.2025 Ceuta - Las Palmas 1:1 ✺

07.12.2025 Granada - Ceuta 1:1 ✺

02.12.2025 CD Guadalajara - Ceuta 1:0 ✺

Spanish LaLiga2 Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Racing Santander	22	12	5	5	49:32	17	41
2	Castellon	22	11	5	6	36:25	11	38
3	Las Palmas	22	10	8	4	27:17	10	38
4	Dep. La Coruna	22	10	7	5	37:25	12	37
5	Almeria	22	10	6	6	41:32	9	36
6	Malaga	22	10	5	7	32:26	6	35
7	Burgos CF	22	10	5	7	26:20	6	35
8	Cadiz CF	22	9	7	6	25:24	1	34
9	Gijon	22	10	3	9	30:31	-1	33
10	Cordoba	22	8	8	6	27:25	2	32
11	Ceuta	22	9	5	8	25:29	-4	32
12	Valladolid	22	7	7	8	24:23	1	28
13	Andorra	22	7	7	8	25:30	-5	28
14	Albacete	22	7	6	9	27:34	-7	27
15	Leganes	22	6	8	8	23:23	0	26
16	Eibar	22	6	7	9	23:26	-3	25
17	Cultural Leonesa	22	7	4	11	24:34	-10	25
18	Real Sociedad B	22	6	6	10	29:31	-2	24
19	Granada CF	22	4	11	7	23:27	-4	23
20	Huesca	22	6	5	11	20:31	-11	23
21	Zaragoza	22	5	6	11	21:35	-14	21
22	Mirandes	22	4	5	13	23:37	-14	17

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