Result
2:1 penalties
05/03/2026 at 19:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Copa Sudamericana - Qualification - Final
- Referee: Rodrigues F. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Argentina | DirecTV Sports, DSports 2 |
 Asia | beIN Sports MENA Xtra 3, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 3, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 3 |
 Australia | beIN Connect |
 Bolivia | Tigo Sports 1 |
 Brazil | Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 Canada | beIN Connect |
 Chile | DirecTV Sports |
 Ecuador | DirecTV Sports, DSports 2 |
 Georgia | Silk Sport 1 |
 Italy | Como TV |
 New-zealand | beIN Connect |
 North-central-america | DirecTV Sports Caribbean |
 Peru | DirecTV Sports |
 South-america | DGO Latin America |
 Uruguay | DirecTV Sports, DSports 2 |
 Usa | beIN Connect, Fanatiz |
 Venezuela | DirecTV Sports, DSports 2, Inter |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.32 | 0.38 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 51% | 49% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 18 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 74% (245/331) | 72% (248/346) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.32 | 0.38 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.26 | 0.76 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 18 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 10 | 3 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 9 | 5 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 9 | 2 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 17 | 15 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 74% (245/331) | 72% (248/346) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 38% (26/69) | 36% (32/89) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 60% (72/121) | 57% (68/119) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 26% (9/34) | 40% (4/10) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.36 | 0.60 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 22 | 21 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 10 | 8 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 63% (10/16) | 67% (4/6) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 51 | 37 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 29 | 37 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.76 | 1.26 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.24 | 0.26 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 31', Barreto G. 🟨,
- 34', Caceda C. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 46', Barreto G. ↓, Arias Fierro S. D. ↑,
- 51', 1 - 0, Becerra K. ⚽, Garces C. (A),
- 58', Zanelatto F. ↓, Vidales J. ↑,
- 58', Deneumostier A. ↓, Zegarra M. ↑,
- 66', Nunez C. ↓, Aguilar R. ↑,
- 67', Garces C. 🟨,
- 67', Salas J. 🟨,
- 70', Quagliata N. ↓, Guzman L. ↑,
- 70', Garces C. ↓, Succar M. ↑,
- 72', 1 - 1, Ramos A. ⚽,
- 77', Arias Fierro S. D. 🟨,
- 78', Ramos A. ↓, Erustes P. ↑,
- 78', Bordacahar C. ↓, De Santis J. ↑,
- 90', Bandiera N. ↓, Aguirre G. ↑,
- Penalties (5 - 4)
- 1, Vidales J. (Penalty Awarded),
- 1, Hohberg A. (Penalty Awarded),
- 2, Zegarra M. (Penalty Awarded),
- 2, Succar M. (Penalty Awarded),
- 3, De Santis J. (Penalty Awarded),
- 3, Robles A. (Penalty Awarded),
- 4, Jesus Alcantar (Penalty Awarded),
- 4, Souza Espana C. (Penalty Awarded),
- 5, Cuesta B. (Penalty Awarded),
- 5, Amondarain M. (Penalty Awarded),
Chances of winning
Cienciano
41.7% | Draw
28.9% | FBC Melgar
29.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Cienciano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.8%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Cienciano's performance.FBC Melgar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.6%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and FBC Melgar might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cienciano than the current prediction. (-10.9%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Cienciano that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for FBC Melgar than the current prediction. (+10.7%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that FBC Melgar could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Cienciano - FBC Melgar Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.25 ↓
(3.06) |
3.25
(3.25) |
3.16 ↑
(2.36) |
7%
(5.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Cienciano - FBC Melgar?
Users Predictions:
13 users predict this event. Cienciano will win (votes: 8 - 61.5%). Melgar will win (votes: 2 - 15.4%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 23.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cienciano: 35% – 88%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 4 high ROI users predict this event. Cienciano (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 3 - 75%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- DNB - Cienciano (1.57) (votes: 1 - 50%) .
- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 6 high ROI users predict this event. Cienciano (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Melgar (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Tie (votes: 3 - 50%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cienciano won 1.
- Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
- The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Cienciano won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 14 matches, and goals 17:35. (average 0.9:1.8).
- Including home matches between the teams, Cienciano won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 15:15. (average 1.4:1.4).
How many head-to-head matches has Cienciano won against FBC Melgar?
Cienciano has won 1 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has FBC Melgar won against Cienciano?
FBC Melgar has won 6 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Cienciano - FBC Melgar were as follows:
31.01.2026
FBC Melgar
-
Cienciano
2:0
02.10.2025
FBC Melgar
-
Cienciano
2:0
10.05.2025
Cienciano
-
FBC Melgar
1:2
25.08.2024
Cienciano
-
FBC Melgar
3:1
30.03.2024
FBC Melgar
-
Cienciano
2:0
Latest results of Cienciano
Latest results of FBC Melgar
Draw
2026Final| 1 | Nacional Asuncion | Recoleta | 1 : 2 |
| 2 | Sportivo Trinidense | Olimpia Asuncion | 0 : 1 |
| 3 | Alianza Atl. | Deportivo Garcilaso | 2 : 0 |
| 4 | Cienciano | FBC Melgar | 2 : 1 |
| 5 | Montevideo City | Defensor Sp. | 1 : 0 |
| 6 | Boston River | Racing Montevideo | 1 : 0 |
| 7 | Puerto Cabello | Monagas | 1 : 0 |
| 8 | Caracas | Metropolitanos | 1 : 0 |
| 9 | U. De Chile | Palestino | 1 : 2 |
| 10 | Cobresal | A. Italiano | 1 : 2 |
| 11 | Atl. Nacional | Millonarios | 1 : 3 |
| 12 | America De Cali | Bucaramanga | 2 : 1 |
| 13 | Independiente | Guabira | 1 : 0 |
| 14 | Blooming | SA Bulo Bulo | 3 : 0 |
| 15 | Dep. Cuenca | Libertad | 3 : 0 |
| 16 | Orense | Macara | 0 : 1 |
