Cienciano vs FBC Melgar – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Copa Sudamericana
Result
2:1 penalties
05/03/2026 at 19:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • Copa Sudamericana - Qualification - Final
  • Referee: Rodrigues F. (Bra)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
argentinaArgentinaDirecTV Sports, DSports 2
asiaAsiabeIN Sports MENA Xtra 3, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 3, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 3
australiaAustraliabeIN Connect
boliviaBoliviaTigo Sports 1
brazilBrazilClaro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
canadaCanadabeIN Connect
chileChileDirecTV Sports
ecuadorEcuadorDirecTV Sports, DSports 2
georgiaGeorgiaSilk Sport 1
italyItalyComo TV
new-zealandNew-zealandbeIN Connect
north-central-americaNorth-central-americaDirecTV Sports Caribbean
peruPeruDirecTV Sports
south-americaSouth-americaDGO Latin America
uruguayUruguayDirecTV Sports, DSports 2
usaUsabeIN Connect, Fanatiz
venezuelaVenezuelaDirecTV Sports, DSports 2, Inter

Match Stats

Expected goals (xG)
1.320.38
Ball possession
51%49%
Total shots
187
Shots on target
33
Big chances
10
Corner kicks
63
Passes
74% (245/331)72% (248/346)
Yellow cards
32
Expected goals (xG)
1.320.38
xG on target (xGOT)
1.260.76
Total shots
187
Shots on target
33
Shots off target
103
Blocked shots
51
Shots inside the box
95
Shots outside the box
92
Hit the woodwork
00
Big chances
10
Corner kicks
63
Touches in opposition box
1715
Accurate through passes
10
Offsides
14
Free kicks
810
Passes
74% (245/331)72% (248/346)
Long passes
38% (26/69)36% (32/89)
Passes in final third
60% (72/121)57% (68/119)
Crosses
26% (9/34)40% (4/10)
Expected assists (xA)
1.360.60
Throw ins
2221
Fouls
108
Tackles
63% (10/16)67% (4/6)
Duels won
5137
Clearances
2937
Interceptions
57
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper saves
22
xGOT faced
0.761.26
Goals prevented
-0.240.26

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 31', Barreto G. 🟨,
  • 34', Caceda C. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
  • 46', Barreto G. ↓, Arias Fierro S. D. ↑,
  • 51', 1 - 0, Becerra K. ⚽, Garces C. (A),
  • 58', Zanelatto F. ↓, Vidales J. ↑,
  • 58', Deneumostier A. ↓, Zegarra M. ↑,
  • 66', Nunez C. ↓, Aguilar R. ↑,
  • 67', Garces C. 🟨,
  • 67', Salas J. 🟨,
  • 70', Quagliata N. ↓, Guzman L. ↑,
  • 70', Garces C. ↓, Succar M. ↑,
  • 72', 1 - 1, Ramos A. ⚽,
  • 77', Arias Fierro S. D. 🟨,
  • 78', Ramos A. ↓, Erustes P. ↑,
  • 78', Bordacahar C. ↓, De Santis J. ↑,
  • 90', Bandiera N. ↓, Aguirre G. ↑,
  • Penalties (5 - 4)
  • 1, Vidales J. (Penalty Awarded),
  • 1, Hohberg A. (Penalty Awarded),
  • 2, Zegarra M. (Penalty Awarded),
  • 2, Succar M. (Penalty Awarded),
  • 3, De Santis J. (Penalty Awarded),
  • 3, Robles A. (Penalty Awarded),
  • 4, Jesus Alcantar (Penalty Awarded),
  • 4, Souza Espana C. (Penalty Awarded),
  • 5, Cuesta B. (Penalty Awarded),
  • 5, Amondarain M. (Penalty Awarded),

Highlights

Chances of winning


Cienciano
41.7%		Draw
28.9%		FBC Melgar
29.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
30.9% 29.1% 40%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.8% 29% 40.1%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Cienciano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.8%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Cienciano's performance.
  • FBC Melgar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.6%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and FBC Melgar might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cienciano than the current prediction. (-10.9%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Cienciano that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for FBC Melgar than the current prediction. (+10.7%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that FBC Melgar could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
    •

    Cienciano - FBC Melgar Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 2.25 ↓
    (3.06)    		 3.25
    (3.25)    		 3.16 ↑
    (2.36)    		 7%
    (5.8%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
    What is the prediction for Cienciano - FBC Melgar?
  • Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Cienciano will win (votes: 8 - 61.5%). Melgar will win (votes: 2 - 15.4%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 23.1%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Cienciano: 35% – 88%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 4 high ROI users predict this event. Cienciano (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 3 - 75%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • DNB - Cienciano (1.57) (votes: 1 - 50%) .
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 6 high ROI users predict this event. Cienciano (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Melgar (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Tie (votes: 3 - 50%).
    •
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cienciano won 1.
    • Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
    • The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Cienciano won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 14 matches, and goals 17:35. (average 0.9:1.8).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Cienciano won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 15:15. (average 1.4:1.4).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Cienciano - FBC Melgar were as follows:
    31.01.2026 FBC Melgar - Cienciano 2:0
    02.10.2025 FBC Melgar - Cienciano 2:0
    10.05.2025 Cienciano - FBC Melgar 1:2
    25.08.2024 Cienciano - FBC Melgar 3:1
    30.03.2024 FBC Melgar - Cienciano 2:0
    Latest results of Cienciano
    27.02.2026 Deportivo Garcilaso - Cienciano 2:3 ✺
    21.02.2026 Cienciano - Alianza Atlético 1:1
    13.02.2026 Universitario de Deportes - Cienciano 2:1
    08.02.2026 Cienciano - Juan Pablo II College 6:1 ✺
    31.01.2026 FBC Melgar - Cienciano 2:0 ✺
    Latest results of FBC Melgar
    27.02.2026 FBC Melgar - Los Chankas 1:2 ✺
    21.02.2026 Cajamarca - FBC Melgar 3:1 ✺
    15.02.2026 FBC Melgar - Moquegua 4:0
    08.02.2026 Sporting Cristal - FBC Melgar 1:2
    31.01.2026 FBC Melgar - Cienciano 2:0 ✺
    Copa Sudamericana Table
    Group Stage

    Group A
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Tigre10101:101
    2Alianza Atl10101:101
    3America De Cali00000:000
    4Macara00000:000


    Group B
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Puerto Cabello11002:113
    2Cienciano00000:000
    3Juventud00000:000
    4Atletico-MG10011:2-10


    Group C
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1O'Higgins11002:023
    2Sao Paulo11001:013
    3Boston River10010:1-10
    4Millonarios10010:2-20


    Group D
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Dep. Cuenca11001:013
    2San Lorenzo10101:101
    3Recoleta10101:101
    4Santos10010:1-10


    Group E
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Racing Club11003:123
    2Botafogo RJ00000:000
    3Caracas00000:000
    4Independiente10011:3-20


    Group F
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Montevideo City11001:013
    2Palestino10100:001
    3Dep. Riestra10100:001
    4Gremio10010:1-10


    Group G
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Olimpia Asuncion11002:023
    2Vasco10100:001
    3Barracas Central10100:001
    4A. Italiano10010:2-20


    Group H
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1River Plate10101:101
    2Blooming10101:101
    3Bragantino00000:000
    4Carabobo00000:000

          Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
          Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Play Offs: 1/16~finals)

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