União São João vs Comercial SP – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Brazilian Copa Paulista União São João - Comercial SP
Result
1:0
16/08/2025 at 14:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Copa Paulista - Round 10

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 26', 1 - 0, Rafael Tanque (Pen),
  • 2nd Half (0 - 0)

Highlights

Official Live

Chances of winning


União São João
46.3%
Draw
29.7%
Comercial SP
24%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
46.9% 28.2% 24.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.6% 27.2% 23.9%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • União São João has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)
  • Comercial SP has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for União São João than the current prediction. (+2.3%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Comercial SP than the current prediction. (-0.1%)
  • União São João - Comercial SP Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.96
    (1.93)
    3.06
    (3.2)
    3.79
    (3.64)
    10.1%
    (10.7%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
  • Preview Facts
    • União São João is Qualified for Copa Paulista (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    • Comercial SP is Qualified for Copa Paulista (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    • União São João is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 2 wins).
    • In recent matches, Comercial SP has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
    • Recently, União São João has had a series of away games.
    • União São João will hold a modest advantage in this match.
    • In the last 2 head-to-head matches, União São João won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1. (average 2:0.5).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between União São João - Comercial SP were as follows:
    12.07.2025 Comercial SP - União São João 0:1
    01.02.2025 Comercial SP - União São João 1:3
    Latest results of União São João
    Latest results of Comercial SP
    Draw
    Play Offs

    1/8-finals
    1PiracicabaAEA Aracatuba2 : 0, 0 : 1
    2Portuguesa SantistaOeste0 : 2, 1 : 0
    3Gremio PrudenteSao Caetano2 : 0, 0 : 0
    4Monte AzulFrancana1 : 2, 1 : 1
    5Sao Jose ECSao Bento2 : 1, 1 : 1
    6ComercialInter de Limeira2 : 0, 0 : 1
    7Uniao Sao JoaoNoroeste3 : 0, 0 : 1
    8PrimaveraPaulista2 : 0, 0 : 1

    Quarter-finals
    1PiracicabaOeste1 : 0
    2Gremio PrudenteFrancana
    3Sao Jose ECComercial
    4Uniao Sao JoaoPrimavera