Newcastle Falcons vs Connacht – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Rugby union Challenge Cup Rugby Newcastle Falcons - Connacht
21/01/2023 at 12:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))

Chances of winning


Newcastle Falcons
47.5%
Draw
4.5%
Connacht
48%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
43% 4.7% 52.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.7% 4.6% 53.9%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Newcastle Falcons has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)
  • Connacht has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newcastle Falcons than the current prediction. (-5.8%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Newcastle Falcons that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Connacht than the current prediction. (+5.9%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Connacht could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
  • Newcastle Falcons - Connacht Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.94
    (2.13)
    21
    (19.4)
    1.92
    (1.75)
    8.4%
    (9.2%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 47.50
  • The most likely Handicap: (0)
  • What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Newcastle Falcons - Connacht were as follows:
    10.12.2022 Connacht - Newcastle Falcons 22:8
    Latest results of Newcastle Falcons
    Latest results of Connacht
    14.01.2023 Connacht - Brive 61:5
    07.01.2023 Connacht - Sharks 24:12
    01.01.2023 Leinster - Connacht 41:12
    23.12.2022 Connacht - Ulster 20:22
    16.12.2022 Brive - Connacht 24:31
    Draw
    Play Offs

    1/8-finals
    1EdinburghLions24 : 12
    2Aviron BayonnaisBulls22 : 32
    3Section PaloiseBath24 : 49
    4MontpellierGloucester17 : 24
    5OspreysScarlets36 : 14
    6LyonSharks34 : 21
    7ConnachtCardiff Rugby35 : 20
    8USA PerpignanRacing 9218 : 24

    Quarter-finals
    1EdinburghBulls34 : 28
    2BathGloucester61 : 26
    3OspreysLyon18 : 20
    4ConnachtRacing 9240 : 43

    Semi-finals
    1EdinburghBath24 : 39
    2LyonRacing 9229 : 15

    Final
    1BathLyon37 : 12