Milton Keynes Dons vs Crawley Town – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

17/02/2026 at 14:45 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))

Stadium MK (Milton Keynes).

League Two - Round 33
Referee: Searle I. (Eng)

Match Stats


Expected goals (xG)
0.95	0.61
Ball possession
51%	49%
Total shots
9	12
Shots on target
2	5
Big chances
1	0
Corner kicks
9	2
Passes
68% (236/349)	70% (239/342)
Yellow cards
1	3
Expected goals (xG)
0.95	0.61
xG on target (xGOT)
0.93	0.50
Total shots
9	12
Shots on target
2	5
Shots off target
4	5
Blocked shots
3	2
Shots inside the box
7	5
Shots outside the box
2	7
Hit the woodwork
0	0
Big chances
1	0
Corner kicks
9	2
Touches in opposition box
23	16
Accurate through passes
2	0
Offsides
4	3
Free kicks
9	11
Passes
68% (236/349)	70% (239/342)
Long passes
35% (28/81)	33% (24/72)
Passes in final third
54% (66/122)	40% (34/84)
Crosses
15% (4/26)	18% (2/11)
Expected assists (xA)
1.15	0.50
Throw ins
31	20
Fouls
11	9
Tackles
58% (11/19)	75% (6/8)
Duels won
53	44
Clearances
34	42
Interceptions
10	7
Errors leading to shot
1	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper saves
4	4
xGOT faced
0.50	0.93
Goals prevented
0.50	0.93

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 0)
1', Bajrami G. 🟨,
23', Williams J. 🟨,
32', Offord L. 🟨,
37', Matete J. ↓, Crowley D. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
66', Richards L. ↓, Pereira D. ↑,
73', Hepburn-Murphy R. ↓, Hogan S. ↑,
80', Flint J. ↓, Russell J. ↑,
80', Lolos K. ↓, Adeyemo A. ↑,
83', Mellish J. ↓, Tomlinson J. ↑,
83', Kelly L. ↓, Lemonheigh-Evans C. ↑,
87', Gordon K. ↓, Forster H. ↑,
90+2', Chapman J. 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning

Milton Keynes Dons
59.7%

Draw
23%

Crawley Town
17.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.6%

24.1%

20.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.2%

22.3%

18.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Milton Keynes Dons has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

Crawley Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Milton Keynes Dons than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Crawley Town than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

Milton Keynes Dons - Crawley Town Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.57 ↓ (1.65)	4.06 ↑ (3.8)	5.43 ↑ (4.52)	6.9% (9.3%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

What is the prediction for Milton Keynes Dons - Crawley Town?

Users Predictions: Milton Keynes Dons will win (16 of 18 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 74.37% – 100%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Milton Keynes Dons will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.

Preview Facts

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ League Two (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 22).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, MK Dons won 1.
MK Dons is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).
Crawley is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
Crawley may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
In this match, MK Dons is considered a favorite.
There will not play in MK Dons: Collar W. (Inactive) Lemonheigh-Evans C. (Inactive) Mendez-Laing N. (Inactive) Wilson K. (Knee Injury)
There will not play in Crawley: Anderson M. (Injury) Cashman D. (Inactive) Vassell T. (Inactive)
There are questionable in MK Dons: Maguire L. (Inactive)
There are questionable in Crawley: Loft R. (Injury) Malone S. (Injury) Russell J. (Inactive)
We predict that MK Dons will win today's game, with odds of 1.57.
In the last 13 head-to-head matches, MK Dons won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 16:17. (average 1.2:1.3).
Including home matches between the teams, MK Dons won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:7. (average 1:1.2).

How many head-to-head matches has Milton Keynes Dons won against Crawley Town?

Milton Keynes Dons has won 1 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Crawley Town won against Milton Keynes Dons?

Crawley Town has won 3 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Milton Keynes Dons - Crawley Town were as follows:

19.08.2025 Crawley Town - Milton Keynes Dons 1:1

11.05.2024 Milton Keynes Dons - Crawley Town 1:5

07.05.2024 Crawley Town - Milton Keynes Dons 3:0

29.12.2023 Milton Keynes Dons - Crawley Town 2:0

15.08.2023 Crawley Town - Milton Keynes Dons 2:1

Latest results of Milton Keynes Dons

14.02.2026 Milton Keynes Dons - Newport County 1:0 ✺

07.02.2026 Cheltenham Town - Milton Keynes Dons 2:3 ✺

31.01.2026 Grimsby Town - Milton Keynes Dons 2:2 ✺

27.01.2026 Milton Keynes Dons - Bristol Rovers 1:0 ✺

24.01.2026 Milton Keynes Dons - Shrewsbury Town 5:1 ✺

Latest results of Crawley Town

14.02.2026 Tranmere Rovers - Crawley Town 2:0 ✺

10.02.2026 Crawley Town - Cambridge United 0:3 ✺

07.02.2026 Crawley Town - Crewe Alexandra 0:1 ✺

31.01.2026 Crawley Town - Harrogate Town 2:0 ✺

27.01.2026 Walsall - Crawley Town 0:0 ✺

English League Two Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Bromley	39	22	13	4	62:36	26	79
2	MK Dons	39	21	11	7	76:40	36	74
3	Cambridge Utd	38	20	12	6	56:28	28	72
4	Notts Co	38	21	7	10	65:39	26	70
5	Swindon	39	21	6	12	63:45	18	69
6	Salford	39	21	4	14	54:48	6	67
7	Grimsby	38	17	11	10	56:40	16	62
8	Chesterfield	39	16	14	9	61:52	9	62
9	Crewe	39	17	9	13	58:47	11	60
10	Walsall	39	17	9	13	48:41	7	60
11	Oldham	37	15	13	9	44:31	13	58
12	Barnet	39	15	12	12	49:43	6	57
13	Fleetwood	39	14	12	13	48:46	2	54
14	Colchester	38	14	11	13	50:41	9	53
15	Accrington	38	13	9	16	38:42	-4	48
16	Gillingham	38	11	12	15	44:56	-12	45
17	Bristol Rovers	39	13	4	22	40:60	-20	43
18	Cheltenham	38	11	9	18	43:65	-22	42
19	Shrewsbury	39	11	8	20	37:63	-26	41
20	Tranmere	39	9	9	21	48:69	-21	36
21	Crawley	39	6	13	20	36:60	-24	31
22	Newport	39	8	7	24	39:67	-28	31
23	Harrogate	39	7	9	23	29:58	-29	30
24	Barrow	38	7	8	23	36:63	-27	29

      Promotion ~ League One
      Promotion ~ League Two (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
      Relegation ~ National League