Result
1:1
15/10/2025 at 20:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 28
- Referee: Zanovelli P. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Sport 1 |
 Brazil | Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 China | K-Ball |
 Croatia | Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go |
 Ecuador | El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol |
 Kosovo | Arena Premium 3 |
 Mexico | Fanatiz |
 Portugal | Canal 11 |
 Russia | MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru |
 Serbia | Arena Premium 3 |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.94 | 0.59 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 61% | 39% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 23 | 4 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (376/430) | 77% (204/265) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.94 | 0.59 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.61 | 1.02 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 23 | 4 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 11 | 1 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 8 | 1 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 10 | 1 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 13 | 3 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 34 | 6 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 15 | 20 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (376/430) | 77% (204/265) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 71% (37/52) | 43% (22/51) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 81% (118/145) | 63% (41/65) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 40% (8/20) | 12% (2/17) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.13 | 0.36 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 9 | 16 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 20 | 15 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 54% (7/13) | 40% (4/10) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 45 | 42 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 24 | 26 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 13 | 4 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.02 | 0.61 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.02 | -0.39 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 27', Cassio ↓, Leo Aragao ↑,
- 29', Kaiki 🟨,
- 29', Kaio Jorge 🟨,
- 42', Guilherme Arana 🟨,
- 45+7', Roman I. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 49', 0 - 1, Matheus Pereira ⚽, Kaio Jorge (A),
- 51', 1 - 1, Ruan Tressoldi ⚽, Guilherme Arana (A),
- 53', Kaio Jorge 🟥,
- 60', Roman I. ↓, Hulk ↑,
- 60', Guilherme Arana ↓, Caio Paulista ↑,
- 69', Dudu ↓, Biel ↑,
- 69', Gabriel Menino ↓, Natanael ↑,
- 69', Wanderson ↓, Eduardo ↑,
- 75', Biel 🟨,
- 77', Matheus Pereira ↓, Gabriel Barbosa ↑,
- 84', Rony ↓, Reinier ↑,
- 87', Reinier 🟨,
- 90+2', Leo Aragao 🟨,
- 90+3', Villalba L. 🟨,
- 90+9', Christian ↓, Arroyo K. ↑,
- 90+9', Romero L. ↓, Walace ↑,
Chances of winning
Atlético Mineiro
29% | Draw
31.4% | Cruzeiro
39.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Atlético Mineiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)Cruzeiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (+4%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cruzeiro than the current prediction. (-4.1%)
Atlético Mineiro - Cruzeiro Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.28 ↑
(2.91) |
3.06 ↑
(2.99) |
2.43 ↓
(2.59) |
4.4%
(6.4%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Atlético Mineiro - Cruzeiro?
Users Predictions:
16 users predict this event. Atlético MG will win (votes: 4 - 25%). Cruzeiro will win (votes: 6 - 37.5%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cruzeiro: 13.8% – 61.2%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 5 high ROI users predict this event. Atlético MG (votes: 1 - 20%). Cruzeiro (votes: 3 - 60%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 14 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético MG won 1.
- Atlético MG is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Cruzeiro has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Atlético MG may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Recently, Atlético MG has had a series of home games.
- Cruzeiro could have a small edge in this match.
- There will not play in Atlético MG: Alexsander
(Knee Injury)
Alonso J.
(International duty)
Caio Maia
(Knee Injury)
Cuello
(Ankle Injury)
Igor Gomes
(Yellow Cards)
Junior Santos
(Hip Injury)
Patrick Silva
(Broken tailbone)
Vitor Hugo
(Yellow Cards)
- There will not play in Cruzeiro: Fagner
(Broken Leg)
Janderson
(Knee Injury)
Wanderson
(Back Injury)
- There are questionable in Atlético MG: Lyanco
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Cruzeiro: Christian
(Muscle Injury)
Jonathan Jesus
(Knee Injury)
Matheus Henrique
(Ribs Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Atlético MG won 9 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 23:15. (average 1.2:0.8).
- Including home matches between the teams, Atlético MG won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 16:10. (average 1.5:0.9).
How many head-to-head matches has Atlético Mineiro won against Cruzeiro?
Atlético Mineiro has won 4 of their last 13 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Cruzeiro won against Atlético Mineiro?
Cruzeiro has won 4 of their last 13 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Atlético Mineiro - Cruzeiro were as follows:
11.09.2025
Cruzeiro
-
Atlético Mineiro
2:0
27.08.2025
Atlético Mineiro
-
Cruzeiro
0:2
18.05.2025
Cruzeiro
-
Atlético Mineiro
0:0
09.02.2025
Cruzeiro
-
Atlético Mineiro
0:2
18.01.2025
Atlético Mineiro
-
Cruzeiro
0:0
Latest results of Atlético Mineiro
Latest results of Cruzeiro
Brazilian Serie A Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Palmeiras | 28 | 19 | 4 | 5 | 53:26 | 27 | 61 |
| 2 | Flamengo RJ | 28 | 18 | 7 | 3 | 56:15 | 41 | 61 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 29 | 16 | 8 | 5 | 42:21 | 21 | 56 |
| 4 | Mirassol | 30 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 52:31 | 21 | 55 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 14 | 7 | 9 | 40:34 | 6 | 49 |
| 6 | Botafogo RJ | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 39:26 | 13 | 46 |
| 7 | Fluminense | 29 | 13 | 5 | 11 | 36:35 | 1 | 44 |
| 8 | Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 33:33 | 0 | 41 |
| 9 | Vasco | 29 | 11 | 6 | 12 | 46:41 | 5 | 39 |
| 10 | Corinthians | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 32:35 | -3 | 39 |
| 11 | Bragantino | 29 | 10 | 6 | 13 | 34:44 | -10 | 36 |
| 12 | Atletico-MG | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 27:32 | -5 | 36 |
| 13 | Gremio | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 30:37 | -7 | 36 |
| 14 | Ceara | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 27:28 | -1 | 35 |
| 15 | Internacional | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 35:43 | -8 | 35 |
| 16 | Santos | 28 | 8 | 7 | 13 | 28:40 | -12 | 31 |
| 17 | Vitoria | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 27:44 | -17 | 31 |
| 18 | Juventude | 29 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 23:53 | -30 | 26 |
| 19 | Fortaleza | 28 | 6 | 6 | 16 | 26:44 | -18 | 24 |
| 20 | Sport Recife | 29 | 2 | 11 | 16 | 22:46 | -24 | 17 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet
