Paphos vs Crvena Zvezda Belgrade – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football UEFA Champions League Paphos - Crvena Zvezda Belgrade
Result
1:1
26/08/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Champions League - Qualification - Final
  • Referee: Oliver M. (Eng)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
argentinaArgentinaDisney+, ESPN 3
armeniaArmeniaFast Sports
asiaAsiabeIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
austriaAustriaDAZN 2, Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 3
belarusBelarusOkko Sport
belgiumBelgiumPickx+ Sports 2, Pickx+ Sports 2
bosnia-and-herzegovinaBosnia-and-herzegovinaArena Sport 1
brazilBrazilClaro TV+, HBO Max, SBT, Sky+, TNT Sports, Vivo Play, Zapping
bulgariaBulgariaMax Sport 3
canadaCanadaAmazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
chileChileDisney+
colombiaColombiaDisney+, ESPN
croatiaCroatiaArena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
cyprusCyprusCytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 3
czech-republicCzech-republicNova Sport 4, Oneplay
denmarkDenmarkTV3 Sport, Viaplay
finlandFinlandMTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2
franceFranceCanal+ Live 2, CANAL+ Sport, Free
georgiaGeorgiaSilk Sport 1
germanyGermanyAmazon Prime Video, DAZN 2, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, WOW
greeceGreeceCOSMOTE Sport 2
hong-kongHong-kongbeIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
hungaryHungaryRTL+
icelandIcelandSÝN Sport Viaplay, Viaplay
indonesiaIndonesiabeIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Vidio
irelandIrelandVirgin Media Player, Virgin Media Two
israelIsrael5 SPORT Israel
kazakhstanKazakhstanQazsport
kosovoKosovoArena Premium 1
laosLaosbeIN Connect
malaysiaMalaysiabeIN Sports 1, Canal+ Sport 2, Sooka
maltaMaltaTSN Malta 6
mexicoMexicoAmazon Prime Video, HBO Max
netherlandsNetherlandsZiggo Sport 3, Ziggo Sport
new-zealandNew-zealandDAZN New Zealand, TVWan Sports 2
norwayNorwayTV2 Play
peruPeruDisney+, ESPN
philippinesPhilippinesbeIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
portugalPortugalSport TV5
romaniaRomaniaDigi Sport 1, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2, Prima TV
serbiaSerbiaArena Premium 1
singaporeSingaporebeIN Sport 1
slovakiaSlovakiaKanal A, Voyo
south-americaSouth-americaESPN South, ViX Latin America
south-koreaSouth-koreaSPOTV Prime
swedenSwedenViaplay
switzerlandSwitzerlandBlue Sport 1 UHD, Blue Sport 1 UHD, Blue Sport 2, Blue Sport 2, Blue Sport 5, Blue Sport 5, Blue Zoom, Canal+ Sport, Canal+ Sport, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
thailandThailandAIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
turkeyTurkeyTabii
ukraineUkraineMEGOGO Futbol 1
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomAmazon Prime Video, Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 2, Virgin TV Go app
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaParamount+
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+, ESPN, Inter

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.510.88
Ball Possession
50%50%
Total shots
1112
Shots on target
53
Big Chances
00
Corner Kicks
33
Passes
78% (274/351)81% (285/350)
Yellow Cards
34
Expected Goals (xG)
0.510.88
xG on target (xGOT)
1.340.86
Total shots
1112
Shots on target
53
Shots off target
54
Blocked Shots
15
Shots inside the Box
89
Shots outside the Box
33
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
00
Corner Kicks
33
Touches in opposition box
1827
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
13
Free Kicks
1717
Passes
78% (274/351)81% (285/350)
Long passes
35% (19/54)54% (30/56)
Passes in final third
49% (38/78)68% (95/140)
Crosses
19% (4/21)33% (7/21)
Expected assists (xA)
0.320.93
Throw-ins
1523
Fouls
1717
Tackles
72% (13/18)71% (5/7)
Duels won
4655
Clearances
4031
Interceptions
25
Errors leading to shot
01
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
24
xGOT faced
0.861.34
Goals prevented
-0.140.34

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 33', Krunic R. 🟨,
  • 33', Veljkovic M. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
  • 53', Babicka S. 🟨,
  • 56', Babicka S. , Radonjic N. ,
  • 56', Bruno Duarte , Arnautovic M. ,
  • 60', 0 - 1, Ivanic M. , Ndiaye C. (A),
  • 62', Pileas K. , Langa B. ,
  • 62', Orsic M. , Jaja ,
  • 68', Anderson Silva , Bassouamina M. ,
  • 79', Jaja 🟨,
  • 86', Bruno 🟨,
  • 89', Carcedo J. 🟨,
  • 90', 1 - 1, Jaja , Pepe (A),
  • 90+1', Ivanic M. , Olayinka P. ,
  • 90+1', Elsnik T. , Katai A. ,
  • 90+4', Bruno , Pedrao ,
  • 90+7', Tiknizyan N. 🟨,
  • 90+9', Pepe 🟨,

Chances of winning


Paphos
29.1%
Draw
25.4%
Crvena Zvezda Belgrade
45.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
33.1% 26.7% 40.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32% 27.6% 41.6%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Paphos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)
  • Crvena Zvezda Belgrade has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Crvena Zvezda Belgrade's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paphos than the current prediction. (+2.9%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Crvena Zvezda Belgrade than the current prediction. (-4%)
  • Paphos - Crvena Zvezda Belgrade Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    3.25
    (2.9)
    3.73
    (3.59)
    2.1
    (2.39)
    5.2%
    (4.2%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
    What is the prediction for Paphos - Crvena Zvezda Belgrade?
  • Users Predictions: 88 users predict this event. Paphos will win (votes: 17 - 19.3%). Crvena Zvezda will win (votes: 59 - 67%). It will Tie (votes: 12 - 13.6%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Crvena Zvezda: 57.2%76.8%.
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • TQ, OT - Crvena Zvezda (votes: 3 - 100%).
    • BTS - yes (votes: 6 - 100%).
    • O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 5 - 83.3%).
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Crvena Zvezda Belgrade will win (16 of 20 users predict this - 80%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • 1st leg result: 2-1. 2nd leg. Playing home matches at a different stadium - Alphamega Stadium.
    • Paphos has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).
    • Crvena Zvezda is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
    • Paphos may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • Crvena Zvezda is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
    • There will not play in Paphos: David Luiz (Thigh Injury)
    • There are questionable in Paphos: Correia J. (Injury) Tankovic M. (Injury)
    • In the last 1 head-to-head match, Paphos won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Paphos - Crvena Zvezda Belgrade were as follows:
    19.08.2025 Crvena Zvezda Belgrade - Paphos 1:2
    Latest results of Paphos
    12.08.2025 Paphos - Dynamo Kyiv 2:0
    05.08.2025 Dynamo Kyiv - Paphos 0:1
    30.07.2025 Maccabi Tel Aviv - Paphos 0:1
    22.07.2025 Paphos - Maccabi Tel Aviv 1:1
    Latest results of Crvena Zvezda Belgrade
    UEFA Champions League Table
    League phase
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1PSG330013:3109
    2Bayern Munich330012:2109
    3Inter33009:099
    4Arsenal33008:089
    5Real Madrid33008:179
    6Dortmund321012:757
    7Manchester City32106:247
    8Newcastle32018:266
    9Barcelona32019:456
    10Liverpool32018:446
    11Chelsea32017:436
    12Sporting CP32017:436
    13Qarabag32016:516
    14Galatasaray32015:6-16
    15Tottenham31203:215
    16PSV31118:624
    17Atalanta31112:5-34
    18Marseille31026:423
    19Atl. Madrid31027:8-13
    20Club Brugge KV31025:7-23
    21Ath Bilbao31024:7-33
    22Eintracht Frankfurt31027:11-43
    23Napoli31024:9-53
    24Royale Union SG31023:9-63
    25Juventus30216:7-12
    26Bodo/Glimt30215:7-22
    27Monaco30213:6-32
    28Slavia Prague30212:5-32
    29Pafos30211:5-42
    30Bayer Leverkusen30215:10-52
    31Villarreal30122:5-31
    32FC Copenhagen30124:8-41
    33Olympiacos Piraeus30121:8-71
    34Kairat Almaty30121:9-81
    35Benfica30032:7-50
    36Ajax30031:11-100

          Promotion ~ Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
          Promotion ~ Champions League (Play Offs: 1/16~finals)