Result
3:1
13/09/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga Pro - Round 28
- Referee: Cajas A. (Ecu)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Ecuador | Canal del Futbol, Ecuavisa, El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping |
 Peru | Zapping Sports |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.60 | 1.27 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 75% | 25% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 21 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 11 | 4 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 16 | 0 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 90% (538/598) | 73% (152/208) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.60 | 1.27 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 3.46 | 1.45 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 21 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 11 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 4 | 0 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 15 | 3 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 16 | 0 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 40 | 8 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 8 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 90% (538/598) | 73% (152/208) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 82% (71/87) | 32% (14/44) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 81% (198/243) | 56% (23/41) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 17% (9/54) | 25% (1/4) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.76 | 0.46 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 18 | 7 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 9 | 7 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 91% (10/11) | 71% (10/14) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 23 | 40 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 2 | 59 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 4 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 3 | 8 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.45 | 3.46 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.45 | 0.46 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 37', 0 - 1, Monti R. (Pen),
- 2nd Half (3 - 0)
- 46', Julio M. ↓, Ona C. ↑,
- 46', Pata E. ↓, Rodriguez A. ↑,
- 60', Santamaria T. ↓, Mercado P. ↑,
- 60', Cortez G. ↓, Hoyos M. ↑,
- 60', Sornoza J. ↓, Guagua D. ↑,
- 73', Fernandez M. 🟨,
- 73', Melo A. 🟨,
- 74', Melo A. ↓, Mera F. ↑,
- 76', Schunke R. 🟨,
- 81', 1 - 1, Spinelli C. ⚽, Carabajal M. (A),
- 82', Cazares ↓, Arroyo J. P. ↑,
- 84', 2 - 1, Rodriguez A. ⚽,
- 85', Rodriguez A. 🟨,
- 86', Ibarra R. ↓, Lugo J. ↑,
- 89', Iriarte I. 🟨,
- 90+1', 3 - 1, Spinelli C. ⚽, Arroyo J. P. (A),
- 90+2', Ushina K. ↓, Luna D. ↑,
- 90+2', Gomez L. ↓, Rodriguez E. ↑,
Chances of winning
Independiente del Valle
66% | Draw
23.4% | Vinotinto
10.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Independiente del Valle has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)The chances for Vinotinto have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente del Valle than the current prediction. (+9.6%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Independiente del Valle, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vinotinto than the current prediction. (-0.8%)
Independiente del Valle - Vinotinto Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.65 ↑
(1.31) |
4.35 ↓
(4.68) |
9.92 ↑
(8.6) |
-6.2%
(9.4%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Independiente del Valle - Vinotinto?
Users Predictions:
5 users predict this event. Ind del Valle will win (votes: 5 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Independiente del Valle will win (2 of 2 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.
Preview Facts
- A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: ) and 15 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )).
- Ind del Valle is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).
- Vinotinto is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
- Vinotinto may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Ind del Valle is the undeniable favorite.
- In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Ind del Valle won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:2. (average 1.7:0.7).
- Including home match between the teams, Ind del Valle won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.
How many head-to-head matches has Independiente del Valle won against Vinotinto?
Independiente del Valle has won 2 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Vinotinto won against Independiente del Valle?
Vinotinto has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Independiente del Valle - Vinotinto were as follows:
18.05.2025
Vinotinto
-
Independiente del Valle
1:3
29.08.2024
Vinotinto
-
Independiente del Valle
1:2
Latest results of Independiente del Valle
Latest results of Vinotinto
Ecuadorian Liga Pro Table
2026 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Ind. del Valle | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 16:8 | 8 | 19 |
| 2 | U. Catolica | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 13:4 | 9 | 16 |
| 3 | Barcelona SC | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 8:4 | 4 | 15 |
| 4 | Aucas | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 10:8 | 2 | 12 |
| 5 | Dep. Cuenca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9:8 | 1 | 11 |
| 6 | Tecnico U | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8:8 | 0 | 11 |
| 7 | Delfin | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4:4 | 0 | 11 |
| 8 | Macara | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 6:5 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Mushuc Runa | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9:9 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Libertad | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8:8 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | LDU Quito | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 7:9 | -2 | 10 |
| 12 | Guayaquil City | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5:9 | -4 | 9 |
| 13 | Orense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11:14 | -3 | 8 |
| 14 | Leones del Norte | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4:9 | -5 | 7 |
| 15 | Emelec | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6:10 | -4 | 5 |
| 16 | Manta | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 2:9 | -7 | 4 |
Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )
Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )
Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )
