Daniel Rincon vs Maxim Mrva – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Result
0:2
24/03/2026 at 10:45 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Split, clay - 1/16-finals

Match Stats

Aces
53
Double Faults
25
1st serve percentage
58%52%
1st serve points won
58% (22/38)69% (20/29)
2nd serve points won
36% (10/28)52% (14/27)
Break Points Saved
4/91/4
1st return points won
31% (9/29)42% (16/38)
2nd return points won
48% (13/27)64% (18/28)
Break Points Converted
3/45/9
Winners
1331
Unforced errors
2628
Net points won
57% (4/7)75% (9/12)
Service Points Won
48% (32/66)61% (34/56)
Return Points Won
39% (22/56)52% (34/66)
Total Points Won
44% (54/122)56% (68/122)
Last 10 balls
55
Match points saved
10
Service games won
50% (5/10)70% (7/10)
Return games won
30% (3/10)50% (5/10)
Total games won
40% (8/20)60% (12/20)

Chances of winning


Daniel Rincon
46.8%
Maxim Mrva
53.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
50.1% 49.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.8% 45.2%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Daniel Rincon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)
  • Maxim Mrva has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Daniel Rincon than the current prediction. (+8%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Daniel Rincon, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Maxim Mrva than the current prediction. (-8%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Maxim Mrva, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
  • Daniel Rincon - Maxim Mrva Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2
    (1.85)

    1.75
    (1.85)
    7.1%
    (8.3%)
    What is the prediction for Daniel Rincon - Maxim Mrva?
  • Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Rincon will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Mrva will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:2.
  • Preview Facts
    • Rincon is ranked ATP: 292. Mrva is ranked ATP: 271.
    • Rincon has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).
    • Mrva is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
    • Rincon may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.
    • In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.
    Latest results of Daniel Rincon
    Latest results of Maxim Mrva
    17.03.2026 Maxim Mrva - Alex Molcan Canceled
    15.03.2026 Maxim Mrva - Toby Samuel 0:2
    14.03.2026 Paul Jubb - Maxim Mrva 0:2
    13.03.2026 Petr Nesterov - Maxim Mrva 0:2
    Draw
    Singles - Main

    1/16-finals
    1Dodig M. (1)Langmo C. (Alt)2 : 1
    2Kirkin E. (Q)Kopp S.0 : 2
    3Poljicak M. (WC)Ivanisevic E. (WC)2 : 1
    4Krumich M.Gill F. (8)0 : 2
    5Neumayer L. (3)Martin Manzano J. C. (Q)2 : 0
    6Ajdukovic D.Campana Lee G. (Q)2 : 0
    7Rincon D.Mrva M.0 : 2
    8Krutykh O. (Q)Coppejans K. (6)0 : 2
    9Ferreira Silva F. (5)Michalski D.2 : 0
    10Berrettini J.Gueymard Wayenburg S.0 : 2
    11Nedic A.Sels J.2 : 0
    12Kuzmanov D.Fatic N. (4)2 : 0
    13Gentzsch T. (7)Forejtek J.2 : 0
    14Oetzbach A. (Q)Romano F. (Q)0 : 2
    15Simundza J. (WC)Coulibaly E.1 : 2
    16Vasilev A. (JR)Loffhagen G. (2)2 : 0

    1/8-finals
    1Dodig M. (1)Kopp S.2 : 1
    2Poljicak M.Gill F. (8)2 : 0
    3Neumayer L. (3)Ajdukovic D.2 : 0
    4Mrva M.Coppejans K. (6)1 : 2
    5Ferreira Silva F. (5)Gueymard Wayenburg S.1 : 2
    6Nedic A.Kuzmanov D.2 : 0
    7Gentzsch T. (7)Romano F.2 : 0
    8Coulibaly E.Vasilev A.0 : 2

    Quarter-finals
    1Dodig M. (RET.) (1)Poljicak M.0 : 0
    2Neumayer L. (3)Coppejans K. (6)0 : 2
    3Gueymard Wayenburg S.Nedic A.2 : 0
    4Gentzsch T. (7)Vasilev A.2 : 0

    Semi-finals
    1Poljicak M.Coppejans K. (6)2 : 1
    2Gueymard Wayenburg S.Gentzsch T. (7)0 : 2

    Final
    1Poljicak M.Gentzsch T. (7)2 : 0