Result
3:2
14/02/2026 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Jupiler Pro League - Round 25
- Referee: Bourdeaud'hui S. (Bel)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Belgium | DAZN Pro League 1, Sporza, Sporza |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.09 | 2.00 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 42% | 58% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 20 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 4 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 73% (204/281) | 78% (326/417) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.09 | 2.00 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 3.25 | 1.21 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 20 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 8 | 3 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 16 | 10 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 7 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 25 | 28 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 9 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 73% (204/281) | 78% (326/417) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 48% (31/65) | 60% (28/47) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 69% (68/99) | 66% (77/117) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 23% (6/26) | 17% (3/18) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.77 | 1.24 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 23 | 32 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 9 | 10 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 47% (9/19) | 74% (14/19) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 46 | 49 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 29 | 33 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 13 | 9 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.21 | 3.25 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.79 | 0.25 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 1)
- 7', 0 - 1, Kvet R. ⚽, Nsimba B. (A),
- 16', 1 - 1, Ikwuemesi C. ⚽, Maertens M. (A),
- 33', Ferraro F. 🟨,
- 40', 2 - 1, Lakomy L. ⚽, Verlinden T. (A),
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 60', Mbamba N. ↓, De Fougerolles L. ↑,
- 60', Goncalves B. ↓, Berte M. ↑,
- 68', Verlinden T. ↓, Vaesen K. ↑,
- 78', Ferraro F. ↓, Moutha-Sebtaoui N. ↑,
- 78', Toshevski D. ↓, Jahanbakhsh A. ↑,
- 80', Schrijvers S. ↓, Kaba S. ↑,
- 80', Ikwuemesi C. ↓, Verstraete B. ↑,
- 82', Teklab H. 🟨,
- 84', Sambu M. ↓, De Kerf B. ↑,
- 85', Teklab H. ↓, Opoku D. ↑,
- 86', Maertens M. ↓, Balikwisha W. ↑,
- 90', 2 - 2, Nsimba B. (Penalty Awarded),
- 90+1', Gil O. 🟨,
- 90+5', 3 - 2, Kaba S. (Penalty Awarded),
Chances of winning
Oud-Heverlee Leuven
43.8% | Draw
29.1% | Dender EH
27.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Oud-Heverlee Leuven has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)Dender EH has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Oud-Heverlee Leuven than the current prediction. (+0.9%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dender EH than the current prediction. (-0.9%)
Oud-Heverlee Leuven - Dender EH Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.16 ↑
(2.02) |
3.24 ↓
(3.3) |
3.53 ↓
(3.7) |
5.5%
(6.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Oud-Heverlee Leuven - Dender EH?
Users Predictions:
11 users predict this event. Leuven will win (votes: 8 - 72.7%). Dender EH will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 9.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Leuven: 46.4% – 99%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Leuven (votes: 1 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 13 in the zone Jupiler Pro League (Relegation Group: ) and 16 in the zone Jupiler Pro League (Relegation Group: )).
- In recent matches, Leuven has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Dender EH has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Leuven might have a minor edge in this game.
- There will not play in Leuven: Kayo B.
(Knock)
Maziz Y.
(Yellow Cards)
- There will not play in Dender EH: Dietsch G.
(Foot Injury)
Verrips M.
(Shoulder Injury)
- There are questionable in Dender EH: Goncalves B.
(Injury)
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Leuven won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:12. (average 1.8:2.4).
- Including home matches between the teams, Leuven won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:6. (average 3.5:3).
How many head-to-head matches has Oud-Heverlee Leuven won against Dender EH?
Oud-Heverlee Leuven has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Dender EH won against Oud-Heverlee Leuven?
Dender EH has won 1 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Oud-Heverlee Leuven - Dender EH were as follows:
24.08.2025
Dender EH
-
Oud-Heverlee Leuven
0:1
11.05.2025
Dender EH
-
Oud-Heverlee Leuven
5:0
19.04.2025
Oud-Heverlee Leuven
-
Dender EH
4:4
15.02.2025
Oud-Heverlee Leuven
-
Dender EH
3:2
09.11.2024
Dender EH
-
Oud-Heverlee Leuven
1:1
Latest results of Oud-Heverlee Leuven
Latest results of Dender EH
Belgian Jupiler Pro League Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Royale Union SG ✔ | 26 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 43:15 | 28 | 56 |
| 2 | St. Truiden ✔ | 26 | 17 | 3 | 6 | 44:29 | 15 | 54 |
| 3 | Club Brugge KV ✔ | 26 | 17 | 2 | 7 | 49:31 | 18 | 53 |
| 4 | Anderlecht | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 34:32 | 2 | 40 |
| 5 | KV Mechelen | 26 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 34:29 | 5 | 39 |
| 6 | Gent | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 41:38 | 3 | 36 |
| 7 | Genk | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 36:40 | -4 | 35 |
| 8 | St. Liege | 26 | 10 | 4 | 12 | 24:33 | -9 | 34 |
| 9 | Westerlo | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 34:38 | -4 | 34 |
| 10 | Charleroi | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 35:35 | 0 | 33 |
| 11 | Antwerp | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 29:30 | -1 | 30 |
| 12 | Waregem | 26 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 36:42 | -6 | 29 |
| 13 | Leuven | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 28:37 | -9 | 28 |
| 14 | Cercle Brugge KSV | 26 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 34:40 | -6 | 27 |
| 15 | RAAL La Louviere | 26 | 5 | 10 | 11 | 21:30 | -9 | 25 |
| 16 | Dender | 26 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 21:44 | -23 | 17 |
Promotion ~ Jupiler Pro League (Championship Group: )
Promotion ~ Jupiler Pro League (Conference League Group: )
Jupiler Pro League (Relegation Group: )
Clinched Spots for Teams
Royale Union SG is Qualified for Jupiler Pro League (Championship Group )
St. Truiden is Qualified for Jupiler Pro League (Championship Group )
Club Brugge KV is Qualified for Jupiler Pro League (Championship Group )
