Result
2:1
15/02/2026 at 16:20 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Primera A - Apertura - Round 7
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Colombia | Win+ Futbol, Win play |
 Mexico | Fanatiz |
 South-america | RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional |
 Usa | Fanatiz, Fubo Latino 2 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.80 | 0.66 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 59% | 41% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 22 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 88% (431/488) | 79% (261/330) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.80 | 0.66 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.00 | 0.28 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 22 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 11 | 2 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 10 | 7 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 12 | 2 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 4 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 17 | 17 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 9 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 88% (431/488) | 79% (261/330) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 43% (10/23) | 41% (26/63) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 80% (112/140) | 66% (79/119) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 33% (4/12) | 50% (7/14) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.32 | 0.85 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 23 | 15 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 9 | 5 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 94% (15/16) | 100% (8/8) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 29 | 31 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 21 | 21 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 4 | 10 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.28 | 1.00 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.72 | -1.00 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 21', Sandoval L. 🟨,
- 33', Rojas I. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (2 - 1)
- 60', 1 - 0, Valencia E. ⚽,
- 62', Moreno D. ↓, Rojas T. ↑,
- 65', Zuleta M. 🟨,
- 66', Sanchez L. ↓, Quinones D. ↑,
- 66', Valencia E. ↓, Rovira B. ↑,
- 67', Zuleta M. ↓, Gomez P. ↑,
- 74', Rojas T. 🟨,
- 76', Sandoval L. ↓, Valencia J. ↑,
- 76', Lopez E. ↓, Moreno Y. ↑,
- 76', Rojas I. ↓, Quinones J. ↑,
- 80', 1 - 1, Gomez P. ⚽, Tamayo K. (A),
- 83', Mera J. ↓, Arrieta C. ↑,
- 84', Hernandez J. ↓, Barbosa Gomez S. P. ↑,
- 87', 2 - 1, Florez K. ⚽, Rovira B. (A),
- 90', Guzman S. 🟨,
- 90+4', Tamayo K. 🟨,
Highlights
https://tinyurl.com/2z2mp2yd
Chances of winning
Deportes Tolima
43.5% | Draw
31.1% | Once Caldas
25.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Deportes Tolima has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)Once Caldas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportes Tolima than the current prediction. (+6.9%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Deportes Tolima, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Once Caldas than the current prediction. (-1.8%)
Deportes Tolima - Once Caldas Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.15 ↑
(1.96) |
3 ↓
(3.41) |
3.67 ↓
(3.74) |
7%
(7.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Deportes Tolima - Once Caldas?
Users Predictions:
6 users predict this event. Deportes Tolima will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Once Caldas will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH -0.5 - Once Caldas (1.71) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH +0.25 - Deportes Tolima (1.31) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- DC - Once Caldas (1.65) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Deportes Tolima (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Once Caldas (votes: 2 - 66.7%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs: ) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Deportes Tolima won 3.
- Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
- Once Caldas may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Deportes Tolima could have a small edge in this match.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Deportes Tolima won 9 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 27:14. (average 1.4:0.7).
- Including home matches between the teams, Deportes Tolima won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 18:7. (average 1.6:0.6).
How many head-to-head matches has Deportes Tolima won against Once Caldas?
Deportes Tolima has won 6 of their last 11 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Once Caldas won against Deportes Tolima?
Once Caldas has won 1 of their last 11 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Deportes Tolima - Once Caldas were as follows:
24.08.2025
Once Caldas
-
Deportes Tolima
0:1
10.03.2025
Deportes Tolima
-
Once Caldas
2:0
08.12.2024
Deportes Tolima
-
Once Caldas
1:0
21.11.2024
Once Caldas
-
Deportes Tolima
0:0
25.10.2024
Deportes Tolima
-
Once Caldas
1:1
Latest results of Deportes Tolima
Latest results of Once Caldas
Colombian Primera A Table
2026 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Atl. Nacional ✔ | 15 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 30:11 | 19 | 34 |
| 2 | Dep. Pasto | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 21:17 | 4 | 28 |
| 3 | Deportes Tolima | 15 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 24:13 | 11 | 27 |
| 4 | Once Caldas | 15 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 26:19 | 7 | 25 |
| 5 | Junior | 15 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 21:20 | 1 | 25 |
| 6 | America De Cali | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 19:12 | 7 | 24 |
| 7 | Dep. Cali | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 17:13 | 4 | 22 |
| 8 | Aguilas | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 16:17 | -1 | 22 |
| 9 | Inter Bogotu00e1 | 15 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 18:20 | -2 | 22 |
| 10 | Millonarios | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 25:17 | 8 | 21 |
| 11 | Llaneros | 15 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 16:14 | 2 | 20 |
| 12 | Bucaramanga | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 18:14 | 4 | 19 |
| 13 | Santa Fe | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 18:19 | -1 | 19 |
| 14 | Ind. Medellin | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 19:19 | 0 | 17 |
| 15 | Fortaleza | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 17:23 | -6 | 16 |
| 16 | Cucuta | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 21:27 | -6 | 15 |
| 17 | Alianza | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 10:22 | -12 | 15 |
| 18 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 16 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 14:28 | -14 | 14 |
| 19 | Chico | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 11:21 | -10 | 11 |
| 20 | Pereira | 15 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 14:29 | -15 | 6 |
Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs: )
Clinched Spots for Teams
Atl. Nacional is Qualified for Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs )
