Result
1:0
16/05/2025 at 16:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga 1 - Apertura - Round 13
- Referee: Segura R. (Per)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 China | K-Ball |
 Peru | L1 Max, Liga 1 Max, Liga 1 Play |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.98 | 0.44 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 55% | 45% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 6 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 72% (245/338) | 64% (176/274) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.98 | 0.44 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.78 | 0.00 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 6 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 0 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 19 | 14 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 14 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 72% (245/338) | 64% (176/274) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 31% (18/58) | 37% (28/76) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 63% (73/116) | 49% (43/88) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 21% (5/24) | 26% (5/19) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.02 | 0.80 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 20 | 34 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 14 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 88% (15/17) | 53% (8/15) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 47 | 46 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 27 | 34 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 9 | 8 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 0 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.00 | 0.78 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.00 | 0.78 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 18', Ysique F. 🟨,
- 36', Nunez O. 🟨,
- 44', 1 - 0, Garcia C. (Own goal),
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 61', Olmedo L. ↓, Castro R. ↑,
- 61', Larios Saavedra G. A. ↓, Espinosa R. ↑,
- 63', Ugarriza A. ↓, Celi Y. ↑,
- 63', Sandoval K. ↓, Valer J. F. ↑,
- 71', Garcia C. 🟨,
- 74', Lupu H. ↓, Illanes F. ↑,
- 77', Espinosa R. 🟨,
- 78', Nunez O. ↓, Bazan J. ↑,
- 90+3', Garcia C. ↓, Gariglio I. ↑,
- 90+3', Castro R. ↓, Gordillo A. ↑,
- 90+4', Graneros A. ↓, Perez M. ↑,
- 90+12', Naya E. 🟨,
- 90+15', Bazan J. 🟥,
Chances of winning
Alianza Atlético
52.2% | Draw
27.9% | Deportivo Garcilaso
19.8% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Alianza Atlético has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.2%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Alianza Atlético's performance.Deportivo Garcilaso has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.9%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Deportivo Garcilaso might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alianza Atlético than the current prediction. (-9.8%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alianza Atlético that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Garcilaso than the current prediction. (+10.6%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Deportivo Garcilaso could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Alianza Atlético - Deportivo Garcilaso Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.79 ↓
(2.25) |
3.34 ↓
(3.45) |
4.69 ↑
(3.08) |
7.2%
(5.9%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Alianza Atlético - Deportivo Garcilaso?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Alianza Atlético (votes: 1 - 100%).
Users Predictions:
Alianza Atlético will win
(8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- Alianza Atlético is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- Deportivo Garcilaso has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Alianza Atlético might have a minor edge in this game.
- There will not play in Alianza Atlético: Melian D.
(Ankle Injury)
Perleche E.
(Yellow Cards)
- There will not play in Deportivo Garcilaso: Nunez O.
(Yellow Cards)
- There are questionable in Deportivo Garcilaso: Erustes P.
(Muscle Injury)
- We predict that Alianza Atlético will win today's game, with odds of 1.98.
- In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Alianza Atlético won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:3. (average 2:0.8).
- Including home matches between the teams, Alianza Atlético won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:0. (average 2.5:0).
How many head-to-head matches has Alianza Atlético won against Deportivo Garcilaso?
Alianza Atlético has won 3 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Deportivo Garcilaso won against Alianza Atlético?
Deportivo Garcilaso has won 1 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Alianza Atlético - Deportivo Garcilaso were as follows:
10.08.2024
Deportivo Garcilaso
-
Alianza Atlético
0:1
29.02.2024
Alianza Atlético
-
Deportivo Garcilaso
3:0
01.10.2023
Alianza Atlético
-
Deportivo Garcilaso
2:0
20.05.2023
Deportivo Garcilaso
-
Alianza Atlético
3:2
Latest results of Alianza Atlético
Latest results of Deportivo Garcilaso
Peruvian Liga 1 Table
Clausura | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Cusco | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8:1 | 7 | 12 |
| 2 | Sporting Cristal | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10:0 | 10 | 9 |
| 3 | U. de Deportes | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7:3 | 4 | 7 |
| 4 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5:1 | 4 | 7 |
| 5 | Sport Huancayo | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8:7 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Alianza Lima | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:4 | -1 | 4 |
| 7 | FBC Melgar | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2:3 | -1 | 4 |
| 8 | Ayacucho | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4:6 | -2 | 4 |
| 9 | Alianza Atl | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1:1 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Alianza Huanuco | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:5 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Grau | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3:4 | -1 | 3 |
| 12 | Juan Pablo II | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5:7 | -2 | 3 |
| 13 | Los Chankas | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3:5 | -2 | 3 |
| 14 | AD Tarma | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1:3 | -2 | 3 |
| 15 | Cienciano | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2:4 | -2 | 1 |
| 16 | Cajamarca | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2:4 | -2 | 1 |
| 17 | Binacional | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0:2 | -2 | 1 |
| 18 | Comerciantes Unidos | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3:6 | -3 | 1 |
| 19 | Sport Boys | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0:5 | -5 | 1 |
Promotion ~ Liga 1 (Play Offs: )
