Rafael Tobias vs Diyar Nurgozhay – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Result
Nurgozhay D. win
07/03/2026 at 18:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT - MEN: UFC

Chances of winning


Rafael Tobias
61.7%
Diyar Nurgozhay
38.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
32.7% 67.3%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Rafael Tobias has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+29%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Rafael Tobias's performance.
  • Diyar Nurgozhay has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-29%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Diyar Nurgozhay might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • Rafael Tobias - Diyar Nurgozhay Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.55
    (2.88)

    2.48
    (1.4)
    4.8%
    (6.2%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 1.50
    Preview Facts
    • Tobias will hold a modest advantage in this match.
    • Recently, there has been no match between the fighters.
    Latest results of Diyar Nurgozhay
    23.08.2025 Uran Satybaldiev - Diyar Nurgozhay Satybaldiev U. - 1st Round TKO
    15.03.2025 Diyar Nurgozhay - Brendson Ribeiro Ribeiro B. - 2nd Round TKO