Itabaiana vs Dorense – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Result
3:0
04/02/2026 at 18:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • Sergipano - Round 6

Match Stats

Red cards
01

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 2nd Half (3 - 0)
  • 58', 🟥,
  • 60', 1 - 0, Luan Silva ,
  • 80', 2 - 0, Leilson ,
  • 84', 3 - 0, Jair ,

Chances of winning


Itabaiana
66.8%
Draw
21.8%
Dorense
11.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
70.3% 20.6% 9.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

74.5% 19.4% 8.6%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Itabaiana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)
  • Dorense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Itabaiana than the current prediction. (+7.7%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Itabaiana, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dorense than the current prediction. (-2.8%)
  • Itabaiana - Dorense Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.36
    (1.3)
    4.16
    (4.43)
    7.98
    (9.99)
    10.1%
    (9.5%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
    Preview Facts
    • This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Sergipano (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Sergipano (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Itabaiana won 3.
    • Itabaiana is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).
    • Dorense's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
    • In this match, Itabaiana is the undeniable favorite.
    • In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Itabaiana won 5 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 12:4. (average 1.1:0.4).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Itabaiana won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 10:3. (average 1.7:0.5).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Itabaiana - Dorense were as follows:
    16.02.2025 Itabaiana - Dorense 4:1
    30.03.2024 Itabaiana - Dorense 2:0
    16.03.2024 Dorense - Itabaiana 1:1
    13.03.2024 Dorense - Itabaiana 0:0
    21.01.2023 Dorense - Itabaiana 0:1
    Latest results of Itabaiana
    31.01.2026 Lagarto - Itabaiana 0:0
    21.01.2026 Itabaiana - Sergipe 0:1
    16.01.2026 Falcon - Itabaiana 0:2
    Latest results of Dorense
    31.01.2026 Dorense - Falcon 1:0
    25.01.2026 Dorense - Lagarto 1:5
    Draw
    Play Offs

    Quarter-finals
    1Sergipe (1)Bye
    2Lagarto (3)America SE (6)0 : 3
    3Itabaiana (2)Falcon (7)1 : 0
    4Confianca (4)Guarany SE (5)1 : 0

    Semi-finals
    1Sergipe (1)America SE (6)2 : 1, 1 : 1
    2Itabaiana (2)Confianca (4)0 : 2, 2 : 1

    Final
    1Sergipe (1)Confianca (4)

    3rd place
    2Itabaiana (2)America SE (6)