Result
1:0
19/02/2026 at 14:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Premier League - Round 18
- Referee: Omar A. M. (Egy)
- Where to Watch on TV:
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 Egypt | Kora Plus |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.07 | 0.56 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 62% | 38% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (500/581) | 76% (264/348) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.07 | 0.56 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
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| 1.94 | 0.34 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 9 | 7 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 9 | 9 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
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| 1 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
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| 8 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
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| 22 | 23 |
| Accurate through passes |
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| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (500/581) | 76% (264/348) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 53% (40/76) | 47% (36/77) |
| Passes in final third |
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| 75% (123/163) | 57% (59/104) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 19% (3/16) | 29% (5/17) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.29 | 0.55 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 16 | 18 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 10 | 11 |
| Tackles |
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| 69% (9/13) | 67% (10/15) |
| Duels won |
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| 44 | 39 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 27 | 19 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 6 | 18 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.34 | 1.94 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.34 | 0.94 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 25', Attia M. 🟨,
- 35', 1 - 0, Ashour E. ⚽, Bencharki A. (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 57', Ben Romdhane M. ↓, El Shahat H. ↑,
- 57', Ieltsin Camoes ↓, Otaka M. ↑,
- 57', Salah R. ↓, Ojo T. ↑,
- 57', Refaat A. ↓, El Gazar O. ↑,
- 74', El Zahdi A. ↓, Imad M. ↑,
- 77', Taalab A. 🟨,
- 87', Dieng A. ↓, Kouka A. ↑,
- 87', Taalab A. ↓, Eid A. ↑,
- 87', Ibrahim H. ↓, Karim A. ↑,
- 90', Bencharki A. ↓, Fouad K. ↑,
- 90+6', Ibrahim Y. 🟨,
- 90+6', Imad M. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Al Ahly Cairo
71.1% | Draw
19.9% | El Gouna
9.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Al Ahly Cairo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)El Gouna has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Al Ahly Cairo than the current prediction. (+2.2%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for El Gouna than the current prediction. (+0.8%)
Al Ahly Cairo - El Gouna Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.31 ↓
(1.34) |
4.69 ↑
(4.59) |
10.3 ↑
(8.88) |
7.3%
(7.7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Al Ahly Cairo - El Gouna?
Users Predictions:
9 users predict this event. Al Ahly will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%). El Gouna will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Al Ahly: 50.6% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Al Ahly (votes: 2 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .
The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League (Championship Group: ) and 12 in the zone Premier League (Relegation Group: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Al Ahly won 3.
- Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.
- El Gouna may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Al Ahly is the obvious favorite.
- In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Al Ahly won 13 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 37:11. (average 1.9:0.6).
- Including home matches between the teams, Al Ahly won 8 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 22:6. (average 2:0.5).
How many head-to-head matches has Al Ahly Cairo won against El Gouna?
Al Ahly Cairo has won 2 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has El Gouna won against Al Ahly Cairo?
El Gouna has won 0 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Al Ahly Cairo - El Gouna were as follows:
15.01.2025
Al Ahly Cairo
-
El Gouna
2:0
04.05.2024
Al Ahly Cairo
-
El Gouna
3:0
11.11.2023
El Gouna
-
Al Ahly Cairo
1:1
Latest results of Al Ahly Cairo
Latest results of El Gouna
Egyptian Premier League Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Zamalek ✔ | 18 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 31:12 | 19 | 40 |
| 2 | Pyramids ✔ | 18 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 29:14 | 15 | 37 |
| 3 | Al Ahly ✔ | 18 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 29:16 | 13 | 37 |
| 4 | Ceramica Cleopatra ✔ | 19 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 27:14 | 13 | 37 |
| 5 | Al Masry | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 27:19 | 8 | 29 |
| 6 | Smouha | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 18:13 | 5 | 28 |
| 7 | Wadi Degla | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 23:20 | 3 | 28 |
| 8 | ZED | 19 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 19:16 | 3 | 26 |
| 9 | National Bank Egypt | 18 | 5 | 10 | 3 | 16:11 | 5 | 25 |
| 10 | Petrojet | 19 | 5 | 10 | 4 | 20:21 | -1 | 25 |
| 11 | Enppi | 18 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 17:15 | 2 | 24 |
| 12 | El Gouna | 18 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 15:15 | 0 | 24 |
| 13 | Modern Sport | 18 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 18:19 | -1 | 23 |
| 14 | Al Ittihad ✔ | 19 | 6 | 2 | 11 | 15:23 | -8 | 20 |
| 15 | Ghazl El Mahallah ✔ | 19 | 2 | 12 | 5 | 12:15 | -3 | 18 |
| 16 | Arab Contractors ✔ | 19 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 12:18 | -6 | 18 |
| 17 | Haras El Hodood ✔ | 19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 14:26 | -12 | 17 |
| 18 | El Gaish ✔ | 18 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 10:22 | -12 | 16 |
| 19 | Kahrabaa Ismailia ✔ | 19 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 21:35 | -14 | 16 |
| 20 | Pharco ✔ | 19 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 8:22 | -14 | 14 |
| 21 | El Ismaily ✔ | 19 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 11:26 | -15 | 11 |
Promotion ~ Premier League (Championship Group: )
Premier League (Relegation Group: )
Clinched Spots for Teams
Zamalek is Qualified for Premier League (Championship Group )
Pyramids is Qualified for Premier League (Championship Group )
Al Ahly is Qualified for Premier League (Championship Group )
Ceramica Cleopatra is Qualified for Premier League (Championship Group )
Al Ittihad is Premier League (Relegation Group )
Ghazl El Mahallah is Premier League (Relegation Group )
Arab Contractors is Premier League (Relegation Group )
Haras El Hodood is Premier League (Relegation Group )
El Gaish is Premier League (Relegation Group )
Kahrabaa Ismailia is Premier League (Relegation Group )
Pharco is Premier League (Relegation Group )
El Ismaily is Premier League (Relegation Group )
