Result
1:1
19/07/2025 at 17:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga Pro - Round 21
- Referee: Congo F. (Ecu)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Ecuador | Canal del Futbol, Ecuavisa, El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping |
 Peru | Zapping Sports |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.84 | 1.22 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 61% | 39% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 6 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 1 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (341/418) | 66% (181/276) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.84 | 1.22 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.15 | 1.19 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 6 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 1 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 21 | 14 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 18 | 17 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (341/418) | 66% (181/276) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 59% (34/58) | 35% (24/68) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 75% (115/153) | 48% (41/85) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 19% (5/26) | 0% (0/7) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.74 | 0.63 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 23 | 12 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 17 | 18 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 76% (13/17) | 73% (8/11) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 63 | 51 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 25 | 36 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 9 | 11 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.19 | 0.15 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.19 | -0.85 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 24', Flor F. 🟨,
- 45+5', Caicedo B. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 54', 0 - 1, Reasco D. ⚽, Pazmino D. (A),
- 57', Flor F. ↓, Velez C. ↑,
- 59', 1 - 1, Burgoa V. ⚽, Caicedo B. (A),
- 68', Molina N. ↓, Valverde J. ↑,
- 68', Herrera A. ↓, Bianchi O. ↑,
- 83', Caicedo B. ↓, Luna R. ↑,
- 83', Carabali F. ↓, Cabezas Briones R. A. ↑,
- 83', Pazmino D. ↓, Guisamano J. ↑,
- 84', 🟨,
- 90', Borja J. ↓, Borja F. ↑,
- 90', Burgoa V. ↓, Mejia M. ↑,
- 90+6', 🟨,
Chances of winning
Orense
57.6% | Draw
25.4% | El Nacional
17% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Orense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.7%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Orense's performance.El Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.5%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and El Nacional might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Orense than the current prediction. (-14%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Orense that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for El Nacional than the current prediction. (+11.3%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that El Nacional could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Orense - El Nacional Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.62 ↓
(2.2) |
3.66 ↑
(3.22) |
5.48 ↑
(3.12) |
7.3%
(8.4%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Orense - El Nacional?
Users Predictions:
12 users predict this event. Orense will win (votes: 9 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Orense: 50.5% – 99.5%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Orense (votes: 2 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: ) and 12 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Orense won 2.
- Orense is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- El Nacional is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- In this match, Orense is a strong favorite.
- In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Orense won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:7. (average 0.9:0.9).
- Including home matches between the teams, Orense won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 0.7:0.7).
How many head-to-head matches has Orense won against El Nacional?
Orense has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has El Nacional won against Orense?
El Nacional has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Orense - El Nacional were as follows:
30.03.2025
El Nacional
-
Orense
0:1
27.10.2024
El Nacional
-
Orense
0:1
03.05.2024
Orense
-
El Nacional
0:1
20.10.2023
Orense
-
El Nacional
1:1
13.05.2023
El Nacional
-
Orense
3:1
Latest results of El Nacional
Ecuadorian Liga Pro Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Ind. del Valle | 25 | 15 | 8 | 2 | 45:20 | 25 | 53 |
| 2 | LDU Quito | 25 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 41:24 | 17 | 44 |
| 3 | Barcelona SC | 25 | 13 | 5 | 7 | 37:29 | 8 | 44 |
| 4 | Libertad | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 40:34 | 6 | 41 |
| 5 | Dep. Cuenca | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 30:25 | 5 | 39 |
| 6 | Aucas | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 35:37 | -2 | 38 |
| 7 | Orense | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 27:29 | -2 | 38 |
| 8 | U. Catolica | 25 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 46:33 | 13 | 36 |
| 9 | Emelec | 25 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 24:28 | -4 | 35 |
| 10 | EL Nacional | 25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 30:35 | -5 | 28 |
| 11 | Delfin | 25 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 24:37 | -13 | 28 |
| 12 | Macara | 25 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 23:26 | -3 | 27 |
| 13 | Manta | 25 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 31:42 | -11 | 25 |
| 14 | Tecnico U | 25 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 24:35 | -11 | 25 |
| 15 | Vinotinto | 25 | 6 | 6 | 13 | 29:36 | -7 | 24 |
| 16 | Mushuc Runa ✔ | 25 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 27:43 | -16 | 20 |
Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )
Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )
Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )
Clinched Spots for Teams
Mushuc Runa is Liga Pro (Relegation Group )
