Orense vs El Nacional – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Ecuadorian Liga Pro Orense - El Nacional
Result
1:1
19/07/2025 at 17:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Liga Pro - Round 21
  • Referee: Congo F. (Ecu)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
ecuadorEcuadorCanal del Futbol, Ecuavisa, El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping
peruPeruZapping Sports
usaUsaFanatiz

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.841.22
Ball Possession
61%39%
Total shots
126
Shots on target
33
Big Chances
11
Corner Kicks
101
Passes
82% (341/418)66% (181/276)
Yellow Cards
31
Expected Goals (xG)
0.841.22
xG on target (xGOT)
0.151.19
Total shots
126
Shots on target
33
Shots off target
52
Blocked Shots
41
Shots inside the Box
53
Shots outside the Box
63
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
11
Corner Kicks
101
Touches in opposition box
2114
Accurate through passes
01
Offsides
21
Free Kicks
1817
Passes
82% (341/418)66% (181/276)
Long passes
59% (34/58)35% (24/68)
Passes in final third
75% (115/153)48% (41/85)
Crosses
19% (5/26)0% (0/7)
Expected assists (xA)
0.740.63
Throw-ins
2312
Fouls
1718
Tackles
76% (13/17)73% (8/11)
Duels won
6351
Clearances
2536
Interceptions
911
Errors leading to shot
01
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
22
xGOT faced
1.190.15
Goals prevented
0.19-0.85

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 24', Flor F. 🟨,
  • 45+5', Caicedo B. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
  • 54', 0 - 1, Reasco D. , Pazmino D. (A),
  • 57', Flor F. , Velez C. ,
  • 59', 1 - 1, Burgoa V. , Caicedo B. (A),
  • 68', Molina N. , Valverde J. ,
  • 68', Herrera A. , Bianchi O. ,
  • 83', Caicedo B. , Luna R. ,
  • 83', Carabali F. , Cabezas Briones R. A. ,
  • 83', Pazmino D. , Guisamano J. ,
  • 84', 🟨,
  • 90', Borja J. , Borja F. ,
  • 90', Burgoa V. , Mejia M. ,
  • 90+6', 🟨,

Chances of winning


Orense
57.6%
Draw
25.4%
El Nacional
17%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
41.9% 28.6% 29.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.6% 27.5% 28.3%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Orense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.7%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Orense's performance.
  • El Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.5%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and El Nacional might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Orense than the current prediction. (-14%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Orense that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for El Nacional than the current prediction. (+11.3%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that El Nacional could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
  • Orense - El Nacional Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.62
    (2.2)
    3.66
    (3.22)
    5.48
    (3.12)
    7.3%
    (8.4%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
  • What is the prediction for Orense - El Nacional?
  • Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Orense will win (votes: 9 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 25%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Orense: 50.5%99.5%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Orense (votes: 2 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: ) and 12 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Orense won 2.
    • Orense is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).
    • El Nacional is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
    • In this match, Orense is a strong favorite.
    • In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Orense won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:7. (average 0.9:0.9).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Orense won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 0.7:0.7).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Orense - El Nacional were as follows:
    30.03.2025 El Nacional - Orense 0:1
    27.10.2024 El Nacional - Orense 0:1
    03.05.2024 Orense - El Nacional 0:1
    20.10.2023 Orense - El Nacional 1:1
    13.05.2023 El Nacional - Orense 3:1
    Latest results of Orense
    13.07.2025 Orense - Libertad Loja 0:1
    23.06.2025 Manta - Orense 0:0
    16.06.2025 Orense - Deportivo Macará 1:0
    31.05.2025 Emelec - Orense 1:0
    Latest results of El Nacional
    Ecuadorian Liga Pro Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Ind. del Valle22137242:192346
    2Barcelona SC23125635:26941
    3LDU Quito22117438:211740
    4Orense23114825:26-137
    5Aucas22105730:27335
    6Dep. Cuenca23105827:24335
    7Libertad2297633:28534
    8U. Catolica2287738:29931
    9Emelec2277820:26-628
    10Delfin2268821:31-1026
    11EL Nacional2267926:32-625
    12Vinotinto22651126:30-423
    13Macara23581021:26-523
    14Manta2258929:38-923
    15Tecnico U22471120:33-1319
    16Mushuc Runa22451324:39-1517

          Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )
          Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )
          Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )