Elise Mertens vs Jessica Pegula – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

10/05/2025 at 15:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

.

WTA - SINGLES: Rome, clay - 1/16-finals

Match Stats


Aces
4	0
Double Faults
1	3
1st Serve Percentage
51%	51%
1st Serve Points Won
69% (24/35)	58% (15/26)
2nd Serve Points Won
65% (22/34)	48% (12/25)
Break Points Saved
88% (7/8)	0% (0/4)
1st Return Points Won
42% (11/26)	37% (13/35)
2nd Return Points Won
52% (13/25)	32% (11/34)
Break Points Converted
100% (4/4)	13% (1/8)
Service Points Won
67% (46/69)	53% (27/51)
Return Points Won
47% (24/51)	33% (23/69)
Total Points Won
58% (70/120)	42% (50/120)
Last 10 Balls
7	3
Match Points Saved
0	1
Service Games Won
90% (9/10)	56% (5/9)
Return Games Won
44% (4/9)	10% (1/10)
Total Games Won
68% (13/19)	32% (6/19)

Chances of winning

Elise Mertens
36%

Jessica Pegula
64%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.6%

72.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.9%

73.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Elise Mertens has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Elise Mertens's performance.

Jessica Pegula has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Jessica Pegula might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Elise Mertens than the current prediction. (-9.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Elise Mertens that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jessica Pegula than the current prediction. (+9.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Jessica Pegula could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Elise Mertens - Jessica Pegula Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.64 ↓ (3.42)		1.49 ↑ (1.31)	4.9% (5.8%)

What is the prediction for Elise Mertens - Jessica Pegula?

Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Mertens will win (votes: 13 - 56.5%). Pegula will win (votes: 10 - 43.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mertens: 36.2% – 76.8%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Mertens (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Pegula (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:2.

Preview Facts

Mertens is ranked WTA: 24. Pegula is ranked WTA: 4.
Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.
Pegula might have a minor edge in this game.
In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Mertens won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:3. (average 1.5:0.8).

How many head-to-head matches has Elise Mertens won against Jessica Pegula?

Elise Mertens has won 1 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Jessica Pegula won against Elise Mertens?

Jessica Pegula has won 1 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Elise Mertens - Jessica Pegula were as follows:

14.01.2025 Elise Mertens - Jessica Pegula 0:2

02.06.2023 Elise Mertens - Jessica Pegula 2:0

Latest results of Elise Mertens

08.05.2025 Elise Mertens - Suzan Lamens 2:1 ✺

27.04.2025 Aryna Sabalenka - Elise Mertens 2:1 ✺

25.04.2025 Maria Camila Osorio Serrano - Elise Mertens 0:2 ✺

19.04.2025 Aryna Sabalenka - Elise Mertens 2:0 ✺

16.04.2025 Elise Mertens - Diana Shnaider 2:0 ✺

Latest results of Jessica Pegula

08.05.2025 Ashlyn Krueger - Jessica Pegula 0:2 ✺

27.04.2025 Jessica Pegula - Moyuka Uchijima 0:2 ✺

25.04.2025 Jessica Pegula - Eva Lys 2:0 ✺

19.04.2025 Ekaterina Alexandrova - Jessica Pegula 2:0 ✺

17.04.2025 Magdalena Frech - Jessica Pegula 0:2 ✺

Draw

Singles - Main

1/64-finals

1	Sabalenka A. (1)	Bye
2	Yastremska D.	Potapova A.	1 : 2
3	Pavlyuchenkova A.	Boulter K.	2 : 0
4	Bye	Kenin S. (31)
5	Fernandez L. (24)	Bye
6	Ruzic A. (Q)	Grant T. C. (WC)	2 : 1
7	Eala A.	Kostyuk M.	0 : 2
8	Bye	Kasatkina D. (14)
9	Rybakina E. (11)	Bye
10	Uchijima M.	Lys E.	0 : 2
11	Andreescu B.	Urgesi F. (WC)	2 : 0
12	Bye	Vekic D. (20)
13	Frech M. (26)	Bye
14	Azarenka V.	Osorio C.	2 : 0
15	Siniakova K.	Danilovic O.	1 : 2
16	Bye	Zheng Q. (8)
17	Gauff C. (4)	Bye
18	Zucchini A. (WC)	Mboko V. (Q)	0 : 2
19	Sakkari M. (Q)	Bencic B. (RET.)	1 : 0
20	Bye	Linette M. (32)
21	Teichmann J. (LL)	Bye
22	Joint M. (Q)	Raducanu E.	1 : 2
23	Stefanini L. (WC)	Kudermetova V.	0 : 2
24	Bye	Anisimova A. (15)
25	Navarro E. (10)	Bye
26	Rakhimova K. (LL)	Wang Xin.	2 : 0
27	Volynets K. (Q)	Rus A. (Q)	2 : 0
28	Bye	Tauson C. (22)
29	Noskova L. (30)	Bye
30	Birrell K.	Kartal S.	1 : 2
31	Arango E. (Q)	Tomova V.	2 : 1
32	Bye	Andreeva M. (7)
33	Paolini J. (6)	Bye
34	Pedone G. (WC)	Sun L.	1 : 2
35	Kvitova P.	Begu I.	2 : 0
36	Bye	Jabeur O. (27)
37	Ostapenko J. (17)	Bye
38	Sramkova R.	Kessler M.	2 : 0
39	Bronzetti L.	Sevastova A.	2 : 0
40	Bye	Siegemund L. (LL)
41	Shnaider D. (13)	Bye
42	Dolehide C.	Gadecki O. (LL)	2 : 1
43	Parks A.	Cristian J.	0 : 2
44	Bye	Putintseva Y. (23)
45	Mertens E. (25)	Bye
46	Lamens S.	Zarazua R.	2 : 1
47	Krueger A.	Bondar A. (Q)	2 : 1
48	Bye	Pegula J. (3)
49	Keys M. (5)	Bye
50	Gracheva V.	Tomljanovic A. (Q)	2 : 0
51	Stearns P.	Brancaccio N. (WC)	2 : 0
52	Bye	Kalinskaya A. (28)
53	Haddad Maia B. (18)	Bye
54	Bouzkova M.	Sherif M.	2 : 0
55	Errani S. (WC)	Osaka N.	0 : 2
56	Bye	Golubic V. (LL)
57	Svitolina E. (16)	Bye
58	Bouzas Maneiro J.	Li A.	2 : 1
59	Baptiste H. (Q)	Blinkova A. (Q)	2 : 0
60	Bye	Samsonova L. (19)
61	Collins D. (29)	Bye
62	Ruse G. (Q)	Kudermetova P.	2 : 1
63	Cocciaretto E. (WC)	Avanesyan E.	2 : 1
64	Bye	Swiatek I. (2)

1/32-finals

1	Sabalenka A. (1)	Potapova A.	2 : 0
2	Pavlyuchenkova A.	Kenin S. (31)	0 : 2
3	Fernandez L. (24)	Ruzic A.	2 : 0
4	Kostyuk M.	Kasatkina D. (14)	2 : 0
5	Rybakina E. (11)	Lys E.	2 : 0
6	Andreescu B.	Vekic D. (20)	2 : 1
7	Frech M. (26)	Azarenka V.	2 : 0
8	Danilovic O.	Zheng Q. (8)	0 : 2
9	Gauff C. (4)	Mboko V.	2 : 1
10	Sakkari M.	Linette M. (32)	1 : 2
11	Teichmann J. (LL)	Raducanu E.	0 : 2
12	Kudermetova V.	Anisimova A. (15)	2 : 0
13	Navarro E. (10)	Rakhimova K.	2 : 0
14	Volynets K. (RET.)	Tauson C. (22)	0 : 1
15	Noskova L. (30)	Kartal S.	2 : 0
16	Arango E.	Andreeva M. (7)	0 : 2
17	Paolini J. (6)	Sun L.	2 : 0
18	Kvitova P.	Jabeur O. (WO.) (27)
19	Ostapenko J. (17)	Sramkova R.	2 : 1
20	Bronzetti L.	Siegemund L.	0 : 2
21	Shnaider D. (13)	Dolehide C.	2 : 0
22	Cristian J.	Putintseva Y. (23)	2 : 0
23	Mertens E. (25)	Lamens S.	2 : 1
24	Krueger A.	Pegula J. (3)	0 : 2
25	Keys M. (5)	Gracheva V.	2 : 0
26	Stearns P.	Kalinskaya A. (28)	2 : 0
27	Haddad Maia B. (18)	Bouzkova M.	0 : 2
28	Osaka N.	Golubic V. (LL)	2 : 1
29	Svitolina E. (16)	Bouzas Maneiro J.	2 : 0
30	Baptiste H.	Samsonova L. (19)	2 : 1
31	Collins D. (29)	Ruse G.	2 : 0
32	Cocciaretto E.	Swiatek I. (2)	0 : 2

1/16-finals

1	Sabalenka A. (1)	Kenin S. (31)	2 : 1
2	Fernandez L. (24)	Kostyuk M.	0 : 2
3	Rybakina E. (11)	Andreescu B.	0 : 2
4	Frech M. (26)	Zheng Q. (8)	0 : 2
5	Gauff C. (4)	Linette M. (32)	2 : 0
6	Raducanu E.	Kudermetova V.	2 : 1
7	Navarro E. (10)	Tauson C. (22)	1 : 2
8	Noskova L. (30)	Andreeva M. (7)	0 : 2
9	Paolini J. (6)	Jabeur O. (27)	2 : 0
10	Ostapenko J. (WO.) (17)	Siegemund L.
11	Shnaider D. (13)	Cristian J.	2 : 0
12	Mertens E. (25)	Pegula J. (3)	2 : 0
13	Keys M. (5)	Stearns P.	1 : 2
14	Bouzkova M.	Osaka N.	1 : 2
15	Svitolina E. (16)	Baptiste H.	2 : 1
16	Collins D. (29)	Swiatek I. (2)	2 : 0

1/8-finals

1	Sabalenka A. (1)	Kostyuk M.	2 : 0
2	Andreescu B.	Zheng Q. (8)	0 : 2
3	Gauff C. (4)	Raducanu E.	2 : 0
4	Tauson C. (22)	Andreeva M. (7)	1 : 2
5	Paolini J. (6)	Ostapenko J. (17)	2 : 0
6	Shnaider D. (13)	Mertens E. (25)	2 : 0
7	Stearns P.	Osaka N.	2 : 1
8	Svitolina E. (16)	Collins D. (29)	2 : 0

Quarter-finals

1	Sabalenka A. (1)	Zheng Q. (8)	0 : 2
2	Gauff C. (4)	Andreeva M. (7)	2 : 0
3	Paolini J. (6)	Shnaider D. (13)	2 : 1
4	Stearns P.	Svitolina E. (16)	2 : 1

Semi-finals

1	Zheng Q. (8)	Gauff C. (4)	1 : 2
2	Paolini J. (6)	Stearns P.	2 : 0

Final

1

Gauff C. (4)

Paolini J. (6)

0 : 2