Result
1:0
31/05/2025 at 20:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga Pro - Round 15
- Referee: Gonzalez G. (Ecu)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Ecuador | El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping |
 Peru | Zapping Sports |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.68 | 0.64 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 48% | 52% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (311/377) | 84% (350/416) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.68 | 0.64 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.98 | 0.08 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 25 | 12 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 17 | 13 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (311/377) | 84% (350/416) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 39% (16/41) | 58% (21/36) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 68% (70/103) | 76% (73/96) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 17% (4/24) | 40% (4/10) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.27 | 0.57 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 13 | 12 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 13 | 17 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 60% (12/20) | 86% (12/14) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 51 | 44 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 15 | 18 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 10 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.08 | 0.98 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.08 | -0.02 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 30', Ayovi J. 🟨,
- 37', Velasco P. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 58', Parrales M. ↓, Caicedo B. ↑,
- 58', Valverde J. ↓, Mejia M. ↑,
- 69', Ruiz J. ↓, Fragozo L. ↑,
- 73', Munoz E. ↓, Garces R. ↑,
- 74', 1 - 0, Ayovi J. ⚽, Solis M. (A),
- 75', Olinick A. ↓, Vasquez S. ↑,
- 78', Quinonez S. 🟨,
- 87', Ayovi J. ↓, Valverde J. ↑,
- 89', Molina N. ↓, Coronel D. ↑,
- 90+4', Achilier G. 🟨,
- 90+5', Meli M. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Emelec
36.2% | Draw
31.9% | Orense
32% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Emelec has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.1%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Emelec's form might have worsened.Orense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Orense's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Emelec than the current prediction. (+7.8%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Emelec, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Orense than the current prediction. (-6.4%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Orense, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Emelec - Orense Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.58 ↑
(2.15) |
2.89 ↓
(3.03) |
2.92 ↓
(3.58) |
7.6%
(7.5%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Emelec - Orense?
Users Predictions:
6 users predict this event. Emelec will win (votes: 3 - 50%). Orense will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%). High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Emelec (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 15 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Emelec won 1.
- Emelec is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Orense is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
- In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Emelec won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:10. (average 1.1:1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Emelec won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1. (average 0.8:0.2).
How many head-to-head matches has Emelec won against Orense?
Emelec has won 1 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Orense won against Emelec?
Orense has won 1 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Emelec - Orense were as follows:
01.09.2024
Emelec
-
Orense
2:1
25.03.2024
Orense
-
Emelec
1:1
13.08.2023
Emelec
-
Orense
0:0
05.03.2023
Orense
-
Emelec
2:1
09.10.2022
Emelec
-
Orense
0:0
Ecuadorian Liga Pro Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Ind. del Valle | 27 | 17 | 8 | 2 | 50:20 | 30 | 59 |
| 2 | Barcelona SC | 27 | 14 | 5 | 8 | 40:32 | 8 | 47 |
| 3 | LDU Quito | 27 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 42:26 | 16 | 45 |
| 4 | Dep. Cuenca | 27 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 32:26 | 6 | 43 |
| 5 | U. Catolica | 27 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 51:35 | 16 | 42 |
| 6 | Libertad | 27 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 40:34 | 6 | 42 |
| 7 | Orense | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 31:31 | 0 | 42 |
| 8 | Aucas | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 36:39 | -3 | 38 |
| 9 | Emelec | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 26:30 | -4 | 38 |
| 10 | EL Nacional | 27 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 32:35 | -3 | 34 |
| 11 | Macara | 27 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 26:28 | -2 | 31 |
| 12 | Delfin | 27 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 25:40 | -15 | 29 |
| 13 | Manta | 27 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 31:45 | -14 | 25 |
| 14 | Tecnico U | 27 | 6 | 7 | 14 | 24:41 | -17 | 25 |
| 15 | Vinotinto | 27 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 29:38 | -9 | 24 |
| 16 | Mushuc Runa ✔ | 27 | 6 | 5 | 16 | 30:45 | -15 | 23 |
Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )
Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )
Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )
Clinched Spots for Teams
Mushuc Runa is Liga Pro (Relegation Group )
