Result
3:1
11/03/2026 at 09:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- 1. Lig - Round 30
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Asia | TOD |
 Turkey | beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Tabii, TRT Spor |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.86 | 0.66 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 41% | 59% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 81% (326/403) | 88% (528/597) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.86 | 0.66 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.35 | 0.87 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 7 | 6 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 18 | 20 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 8 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 81% (326/403) | 88% (528/597) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 30% (13/43) | 62% (37/60) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 67% (62/93) | 77% (119/155) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 33% (4/12) | 18% (3/17) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.60 | 1.33 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 17 | 23 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 8 | 4 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 76% (13/17) | 69% (9/13) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 38 | 29 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 27 | 9 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 12 | 14 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.87 | 1.35 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.13 | -1.65 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 2nd Half (3 - 1)
- 63', 1 - 0, Kaplan E. ⚽, Benny (A),
- 64', Fettahoglu M. ↓, Keser B. ↑,
- 64', Crociata G. ↓, Sylla C. ↑,
- 67', 2 - 0, Kaplan E. ⚽, Glumac T. (A),
- 73', 3 - 0, Benny ⚽, Celik B. (A),
- 74', Ekincier B. ↓, Kosoko T. ↑,
- 74', Akgun S. ↓, Kabak A. ↑,
- 74', Giorbelidze G. ↓, Fernando Andrade ↑,
- 78', Babacan A. ↓, Hoti E. ↑,
- 78', Goksu S. ↓, Bardhi J. ↑,
- 80', Rodriguez M. ↓, Bayrak C. ↑,
- 84', Kaplan E. ↓, Yildirim O. ↑,
- 84', Benny ↓, Sas Y. D. ↑,
- 89', Bulbul A. T. 🟨,
- 90+1', 3 - 1, Tozlu E. ⚽, Sylla C. (A),
Chances of winning
Umraniyespor
17.7% | Draw
25.4% | Erzurumspor
56.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Umraniyespor has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.1%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Umraniyespor's form might have worsened.Erzurumspor has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.1%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Erzurumspor's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Umraniyespor than the current prediction. (+7.7%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Umraniyespor, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Erzurumspor than the current prediction. (-10.3%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Erzurumspor, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Umraniyespor - Erzurumspor Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
5.3 ↑
(3.58) |
3.69 ↑
(3.25) |
1.64 ↓
(2.02) |
6.9%
(8.2%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Umraniyespor - Erzurumspor?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH +1.5 - Umraniyespor (1.34) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
Erzurumspor will win
(32 of 34 users predict this - 94.12%).
Confidence interval (95%): 86.21% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Erzurumspor will win (10 of 10 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 11 high ROI users predict this event. Umraniyespor (votes: 1 - 9.1%). Erzurumspor (votes: 10 - 90.9%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 15 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Super Lig).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Umraniyespor won 1.
- In recent matches, Umraniyespor has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Erzurumspor is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).
- Umraniyespor may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Erzurumspor is a strong favorite.
- There will not play in Erzurumspor: Ozhan F.
(Suspended)
Saglik S.
(Inactive)
Sasi F.
(Inactive)
Yigit E.
(Suspended)
- In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Umraniyespor won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 19:21. (average 1.4:1.5).
- Including home matches between the teams, Umraniyespor won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:8. (average 1.5:1.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Umraniyespor won against Erzurumspor?
Umraniyespor has won 1 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Erzurumspor won against Umraniyespor?
Erzurumspor has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Umraniyespor - Erzurumspor were as follows:
24.10.2025
Erzurumspor
-
Umraniyespor
2:0
04.05.2025
Erzurumspor
-
Umraniyespor
2:0
05.01.2025
Umraniyespor
-
Erzurumspor
0:0
05.05.2024
Umraniyespor
-
Erzurumspor
2:0
20.12.2023
Erzurumspor
-
Umraniyespor
1:1
Latest results of Umraniyespor
Latest results of Erzurumspor
Turkish First League Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Erzurumspor | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | 74:23 | 51 | 69 |
| 2 | Amedspor | 32 | 20 | 7 | 5 | 68:32 | 36 | 67 |
| 3 | Erokspor | 32 | 18 | 9 | 5 | 73:30 | 43 | 63 |
| 4 | Corum | 32 | 19 | 5 | 8 | 53:34 | 19 | 62 |
| 5 | Bodrumspor | 32 | 17 | 6 | 9 | 67:35 | 32 | 57 |
| 6 | Pendikspor | 32 | 14 | 12 | 6 | 49:27 | 22 | 54 |
| 7 | Bandirmaspor | 32 | 13 | 9 | 10 | 42:33 | 9 | 48 |
| 8 | Keciorengucu | 32 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 63:40 | 23 | 47 |
| 9 | Sivasspor | 32 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 40:31 | 9 | 47 |
| 10 | Igdir FK | 32 | 12 | 9 | 11 | 40:44 | -4 | 45 |
| 11 | Vanspor FK | 32 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 42:35 | 7 | 43 |
| 12 | Manisa FK | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | 46:52 | -6 | 43 |
| 13 | Boluspor | 32 | 12 | 6 | 14 | 50:44 | 6 | 42 |
| 14 | Umraniyespor | 32 | 11 | 6 | 15 | 38:41 | -3 | 39 |
| 15 | Sariyer | 32 | 11 | 6 | 15 | 34:41 | -7 | 39 |
| 16 | Istanbulspor AS | 32 | 9 | 12 | 11 | 38:48 | -10 | 39 |
| 17 | Serik Spor | 32 | 10 | 5 | 17 | 38:60 | -22 | 35 |
| 18 | Sakaryaspor | 32 | 8 | 8 | 16 | 41:56 | -15 | 32 |
| 19 | Hatayspor | 32 | 0 | 7 | 25 | 22:88 | -66 | 7 |
| 20 | Adana Demirspor ✔ | 32 | 0 | 3 | 29 | 17:141 | -124 | -57 |
Promotion ~ Super Lig
Promotion ~ 1. Lig (Play Offs: Final)
Promotion ~ 1. Lig (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Relegation
Clinched Spots for Teams
Adana Demirspor is Relegated to
