Result
1:0
03/10/2026 at 12:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- UEFA Nations League - League C - Round 3
- Referee: Raczkowski P. (Pol)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Africa | DStv Now, SuperSport OTT 8 |
 Argentina | Disney+ |
 Armenia | Fast Sports |
 Asia | beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3 |
 Australia | beIN Connect |
 Austria | DAZN |
 Brazil | Disney+ |
 Bulgaria | Diema Sport 2, Play Diema Xtra |
 Canada | DAZN Canada, fubo Sports Network |
 Chile | Disney+ |
 Colombia | Disney+ |
 Croatia | MAXtv To Go, SportKlub 10 |
 Denmark | TV2 Play |
 Estonia | ETV 2, Go3 Extra Sports |
 Europe | UEFA TV |
 Finland | MTV Katsomo+ |
 Germany | DAZN Deutsch |
 Greece | Nova Sports 3, Nova Sports 4 |
 Hungary | Match 4 |
 Iceland | Viaplay |
 India | JioTV app, Sony LIV, Vision+ |
 Indonesia | SINDOnews TV |
 Japan | DAZN Japan |
 Lithuania | Go3 Extra Sports |
 Luxembourg | RTL 2, RTL 2 |
 Mexico | Izzi TV, Sky Sport |
 New-zealand | beIN Connect |
 Nigeria | SuperSport OTT 8 |
 Norway | TV2 Play, Viaplay |
 Pakistan | Tapmad |
 Peru | Disney+ |
 Romania | Digi Online, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 5 |
 Russia | Okko Sport |
 South-africa | SuperSport OTT 8 |
 South-america | ViX Latin America |
 South-korea | SPOTV Now |
 Spain | DAZN Espana |
 Sweden | Viaplay |
 Switzerland | DAZN Switzerland |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Ukraine |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Usa | Fox Soccer Plus, FOX Sports 2 |
 Venezuela | Disney+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.46 | 0.53 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 46% | 54% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 9 | 2 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 88% (394/446) | 91% (479/529) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.46 | 0.53 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.65 | 0.13 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 9 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 10 | 4 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 16 | 13 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 13 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 88% (394/446) | 91% (479/529) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 53% (23/43) | 66% (31/47) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 62% (32/52) | 86% (129/150) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 18% (3/17) | 17% (3/18) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.80 | 0.63 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 18 | 13 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 13 | 12 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 60% (9/15) | 64% (9/14) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 40 | 41 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 26 | 24 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 2 | 8 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.13 | 2.65 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.13 | 1.65 |
| Goal kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 5', 1 - 0, Peetson R. ⚽,
- 29', Mahmutovic E. 🟨,
- 44', Henn J. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 62', Dardari A. ↓, Kadamani H. ↑,
- 62', Duarte E. ↓, Thill S. ↑,
- 66', Mannilaan M. ↓, Mustmaa K. ↑,
- 68', Natami O. 🟨,
- 72', Palumets K. ↓, Soomets M. ↑,
- 73', Thill V. ↓, Rupil T. ↑,
- 73', Kuusk M. 🟨,
- 78', Selimovic V. 🟨,
- 80', Kait M. ↓, Ainsalu M. ↑,
- 82', Mets K. 🟨,
- 83', Bohnert F. ↓, Olesen M. ↑,
- 83', Mahmutovic E. ↓, Dzogovic E. ↑,
- 84', Barreiro L. 🟨,
- 85', Dzogovic E. 🟨,
- 87', Olesen M. 🟨,
- 88', Poom M. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Estonia
31.9% | Draw
32.6% | Luxembourg
35.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Estonia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)Luxembourg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)
Estonia - Luxembourg Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.95 ↑
(2.69) |
2.9 ↓
(3.13) |
2.67 ↑
(2.66) |
5.8%
(6.7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Estonia - Luxembourg?
Users Predictions:
22 users predict this event. Estonia will win (votes: 9 - 40.9%). Luxembourg will win (votes: 5 - 22.7%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 36.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Estonia: 20.4% – 61.4%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Estonia (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- O/U 3.5 - under (1.14) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:0.
Preview Facts
- Estonia is ranked FIFA: 127., and Luxembourg is ranked FIFA: 98..
- The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.
- These two teams have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.
How many head-to-head matches has Estonia won against Luxembourg?
Estonia has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Luxembourg won against Estonia?
Luxembourg has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Estonia - Luxembourg were as follows:
Latest results of Estonia
Latest results of Luxembourg
UEFA Nations League Table
League AGroup 1 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | France | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7:2 | 5 | 10 |
| 2 | Italy | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8:5 | 3 | 7 |
| 3 | Belgium | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6:5 | 1 | 6 |
| 4 | Turkey | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2:11 | -9 | 0 |
Group 2 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Netherlands | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7:5 | 2 | 8 |
| 2 | Greece | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5:3 | 2 | 8 |
| 3 | Germany | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3:2 | 1 | 5 |
| 4 | Serbia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3:8 | -5 | 0 |
Group 3 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Spain ✔ | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12:5 | 7 | 12 |
| 2 | England | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14:3 | 11 | 9 |
| 3 | Croatia | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4:14 | -10 | 3 |
| 4 | Czech Republic | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2:10 | -8 | 0 |
Group 4 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Portugal ✔ | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9:4 | 5 | 12 |
| 2 | Denmark | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7:7 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Wales | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2:5 | -3 | 3 |
| 4 | Norway | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6:8 | -2 | 3 |
Promotion ~ UEFA Nations League (League A ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
UEFA Nations League (Relegation ~ League A/B: )
Relegation ~ UEFA Nations League (League B: )
Clinched Spots for Teams
Spain is Qualified for UEFA Nations League (League A ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Portugal is Qualified for UEFA Nations League (League A ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
