Result
1:3
13/02/2026 at 14:15 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Challenge League - Round 22
- Referee: Odiet M. (Sui)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Switzerland | Blue Sport 3, Blue Sport 3 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.21 | 1.48 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 41% | 59% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 18 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 7 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (275/333) | 90% (417/465) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Red cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.21 | 1.48 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.19 | 2.29 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 18 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 7 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 8 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 6 | 10 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 5 | 8 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 12 | 27 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 4 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 23 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (275/333) | 90% (417/465) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 57% (35/61) | 69% (24/35) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 72% (54/75) | 77% (85/111) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 33% (3/9) | 29% (5/17) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.58 | 1.27 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 16 | 17 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 23 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 55% (11/20) | 85% (11/13) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 54 | 40 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 22 | 20 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 6 | 8 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.29 | 1.19 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.71 | 0.19 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 10', 0 - 1, Kone K. ⚽, Seydoux L. (A),
- 15', 1 - 1, Itaitinga ⚽, Ricardo Alves (A),
- 41', Rufli V. 🟥,
- 45+2', Fontana J. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 2)
- 46', Escorza T. ↓, Felder V. ↑,
- 59', 1 - 2, Demhasaj S. ⚽, Carraco D. (A),
- 60', Sacramento dos Santos G. ↓, Ben Seghir S. ↑,
- 63', 1 - 3, Ben Seghir S. ⚽, Abedini E. (A),
- 66', Caslei B. ↓, Correia O. ↑,
- 66', Bua K. ↓, Bouchlarhem T. ↑,
- 66', Bossiwa S. ↓, El Jaouhari M. ↑,
- 75', Demhasaj S. ↓, Nvendo Ferrier V. ↑,
- 75', Kone K. ↓, Hautier J. ↑,
- 84', Itaitinga ↓, Sene O. ↑,
- 86', Carraco D. ↓, Deme M. ↑,
Chances of winning
Étoile Carouge
36.9% | Draw
26.9% | Neuchâtel Xamax
36.2% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Étoile Carouge has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)Neuchâtel Xamax has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Étoile Carouge than the current prediction. (+2.4%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Neuchâtel Xamax than the current prediction. (-3%)
Étoile Carouge - Neuchâtel Xamax Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.51 ↑
(2.37) |
3.44 ↑
(3.32) |
2.56 ↓
(2.71) |
8%
(9.2%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Étoile Carouge - Neuchâtel Xamax?
Users Predictions:
8 users predict this event. Étoile will win (votes: 2 - 25%). Xamax will win (votes: 2 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 15.4% – 84.6%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .
The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Étoile won 3.
- Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.
- Xamax may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Recently, Xamax has had a series of home games.
- In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
- There will not play in Étoile: Boulkous N.
(Inactive)
Ricardo Alves
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Xamax: Bergsma L.
(Injury)
Krasniqi J.
(Injury)
Mulaj L.
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Étoile: Bua K.
(Inactive)
- In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Étoile won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 13:9. (average 1.6:1.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Étoile won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:4. (average 1.7:1.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Étoile Carouge won against Neuchâtel Xamax?
Étoile Carouge has won 4 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Neuchâtel Xamax won against Étoile Carouge?
Neuchâtel Xamax has won 2 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Étoile Carouge - Neuchâtel Xamax were as follows:
17.10.2025
Étoile Carouge
-
Neuchâtel Xamax
0:2
22.08.2025
Neuchâtel Xamax
-
Étoile Carouge
2:1
09.05.2025
Neuchâtel Xamax
-
Étoile Carouge
1:2
07.02.2025
Étoile Carouge
-
Neuchâtel Xamax
2:1
18.10.2024
Neuchâtel Xamax
-
Étoile Carouge
0:3
Latest results of Étoile Carouge
Latest results of Neuchâtel Xamax
Swiss Challenge League Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Vaduz | 26 | 18 | 5 | 3 | 53:27 | 26 | 59 |
| 2 | Aarau | 26 | 19 | 2 | 5 | 53:33 | 20 | 59 |
| 3 | Yverdon | 26 | 14 | 5 | 7 | 49:32 | 17 | 47 |
| 4 | Lausanne Ouchy | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 44:34 | 10 | 39 |
| 5 | Xamax | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 36:36 | 0 | 36 |
| 6 | Rapperswil-Jona | 26 | 9 | 2 | 15 | 31:42 | -11 | 29 |
| 7 | Wil | 26 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 23:38 | -15 | 27 |
| 8 | Etoile-Carouge | 26 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 28:39 | -11 | 25 |
| 9 | Stade Nyonnais | 26 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 25:33 | -8 | 24 |
| 10 | Bellinzona | 26 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 23:51 | -28 | 15 |
Promotion ~ Super League
Promotion ~ Super League (Promotion: )
Relegation ~ Promotion League
