Result
1:2
14/02/2026 at 12:45 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Eredivisie - Round 23
- Referee: Blank E. (Ned)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Argentina | Disney+ |
 Brazil | Disney+ |
 Canada | Sportsnet+ |
 France | DAZN France |
 Hong-kong | myTV SUPER |
 Indonesia | Vidio |
 Mexico | Disney+, ESPN 4 |
 Netherlands | Canal+, ESPN 3, ESPN Extra |
 North-central-america | Disney+ Caribbean |
 Peru | Disney+ |
 Russia | TV Start |
 Serbia | Arena Sport 7 |
 Slovakia | Arena sport 2 |
 Slovenia | Sport TV3 |
 Turkey | Tivibu Spor 3 |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Usa | ESPN App, ESPN+ |
 Venezuela | Disney+ |
 World | Onefootball, Triller TV+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.75 | 2.01 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 45% | 55% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 16 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 7 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (370/450) | 84% (472/559) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.75 | 2.01 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.38 | 2.31 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 16 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 7 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 7 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 4 | 9 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 7 | 7 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 18 | 26 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (370/450) | 84% (472/559) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 51% (39/76) | 57% (28/49) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 70% (71/102) | 67% (84/126) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 18% (3/17) | 36% (5/14) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.74 | 2.09 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 17 | 16 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 7 | 6 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 50% (7/14) | 77% (10/13) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 50 | 50 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 18 | 20 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 14 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.31 | 0.38 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.31 | -0.62 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 20', Bronkhorst I. 🟨,
- 29', Chavez Garcia M. 🟨,
- 45+1', 1 - 0, Bronkhorst I. ⚽,
- 2nd Half (0 - 2)
- 46', Chavez Garcia M. ↓, Dijkstra E. ↑,
- 46', Daal R. ↓, Jensen I. ↑,
- 56', Weslley Patati ↓, Sadiq I. ↑,
- 57', Hornkamp J. ↓, Mijnans S. ↑,
- 69', Naujoks N. ↓, Bergraaf J. ↑,
- 69', Bronkhorst I. ↓, Janssen S. ↑,
- 70', Robbemond R. 🟨,
- 70', Robbemond R. ↓, Meerdink M. ↑,
- 79', Sanches Fernandes D. ↓, Jonathans M. ↑,
- 84', Hartjes L. ↓, Henderikx S. ↑,
- 84', Schouten L. ↓, Carlen A. ↑,
- 90+2', 1 - 1, Parrott T. ⚽, de Wit M. (A),
- 90+6', 1 - 2, Penetra ⚽, Boogaard K. (A),
Chances of winning
Excelsior
31.6% | Draw
26.7% | AZ Alkmaar
41.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Excelsior has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.5%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Excelsior's performance.AZ Alkmaar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.1%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and AZ Alkmaar might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Excelsior than the current prediction. (-9.7%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Excelsior that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for AZ Alkmaar than the current prediction. (+12.7%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that AZ Alkmaar could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Excelsior - AZ Alkmaar Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.98 ↓
(4.23) |
3.55 ↓
(3.88) |
2.27 ↑
(1.74) |
5.8%
(6.9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Excelsior - AZ Alkmaar?
Users Predictions:
23 users predict this event. Excelsior will win (votes: 5 - 21.7%). AZ will win (votes: 13 - 56.5%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 21.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for AZ: 36.2% – 76.8%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- DC - Excelsior (1.68) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH 0 - AZ (1.69) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH +0.25 - Excelsior (1.83) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): AZ Alkmaar will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 7 high ROI users predict this event. Excelsior (votes: 2 - 28.6%). AZ (votes: 5 - 71.4%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 12 and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Conference League ~ Play Offs: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Excelsior won 0.
- Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
- Excelsior may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Recently, AZ has had a series of home games.
- AZ might have a minor edge in this game.
- There will not play in AZ: Clasie J.
(Ankle Injury)
Kasius D.
(Injury)
Koopmeiners P.
(Yellow Cards)
Mijnans S.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Excelsior: Naujoks N.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in AZ: Maikuma S.
(Injury)
Meerdink M.
(Groin Injury)
Smit K.
(Inactive)
- In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Excelsior won 4 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 26:49. (average 1.4:2.6).
- Including home matches between the teams, Excelsior won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 15:19. (average 1.9:2.4).
How many head-to-head matches has Excelsior won against AZ Alkmaar?
Excelsior has won 1 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has AZ Alkmaar won against Excelsior?
AZ Alkmaar has won 4 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Excelsior - AZ Alkmaar were as follows:
21.01.2026
AZ Alkmaar
-
Excelsior
1:1
13.07.2024
AZ Alkmaar
-
Excelsior
8:0
10.03.2024
AZ Alkmaar
-
Excelsior
4:0
04.11.2023
Excelsior
-
AZ Alkmaar
1:1
10.02.2023
AZ Alkmaar
-
Excelsior
5:0
Latest results of Excelsior
Latest results of AZ Alkmaar
Dutch Eredivisie Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | PSV | 25 | 21 | 2 | 2 | 73:30 | 43 | 65 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 25 | 15 | 3 | 7 | 55:35 | 20 | 48 |
| 3 | Ajax | 25 | 11 | 11 | 3 | 47:31 | 16 | 44 |
| 4 | Nijmegen | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 61:43 | 18 | 43 |
| 5 | Twente | 25 | 10 | 11 | 4 | 41:26 | 15 | 41 |
| 6 | AZ Alkmaar | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 42:40 | 2 | 39 |
| 7 | Sparta Rotterdam | 25 | 11 | 4 | 10 | 32:42 | -10 | 37 |
| 8 | Utrecht | 25 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 38:31 | 7 | 34 |
| 9 | Heerenveen | 25 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 42:43 | -1 | 34 |
| 10 | Sittard | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 39:45 | -6 | 32 |
| 11 | Groningen | 25 | 9 | 4 | 12 | 33:35 | -2 | 31 |
| 12 | G.A. Eagles | 25 | 6 | 11 | 8 | 38:39 | -1 | 29 |
| 13 | Zwolle | 25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 34:50 | -16 | 28 |
| 14 | FC Volendam | 25 | 7 | 6 | 12 | 29:41 | -12 | 27 |
| 15 | Excelsior | 25 | 7 | 5 | 13 | 26:42 | -16 | 26 |
| 16 | NAC Breda | 25 | 5 | 7 | 13 | 25:39 | -14 | 22 |
| 17 | Telstar | 25 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 31:41 | -10 | 21 |
| 18 | Heracles | 25 | 5 | 2 | 18 | 32:65 | -33 | 17 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Conference League ~ Play Offs: )
Eredivisie (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Eerste Divisie
