Exeter City vs Burton Albion – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

18/04/2025 at 08:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

St James Park (Exeter).

League One - Round 43
Referee: Miles J. (Eng)
Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
0.71	0.42
Ball Possession
74%	26%
Total shots
4	5
Shots on target
3	1
Big Chances
2	0
Corner Kicks
2	1
Passes
83% (441/533)	54% (101/188)
Yellow Cards
3	3
Expected Goals (xG)
0.71	0.42
xG on target (xGOT)
0.34	0.04
Total shots
4	5
Shots on target
3	1
Shots off target
0	1
Blocked Shots
1	3
Shots inside the Box
3	2
Shots outside the Box
1	3
Hit the Woodwork
0	0
Big Chances
2	0
Corner Kicks
2	1
Touches in opposition box
9	10
Through passes
100% (1/1)	0% (0/1)
Offsides
1	2
Free Kicks
16	15
Passes
83% (441/533)	54% (101/188)
Long passes
28% (18/64)	25% (16/65)
Passes in final third
63% (71/112)	35% (28/79)
Crosses
15% (2/13)	33% (3/9)
Expected assists (xA)
0.64	0.42
Fouls
15	16
Tackles
36% (5/14)	76% (13/17)
Duels won
49	46
Clearances Total
25	17
Interceptions
7	10
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
1	3
xGOT faced
0.04	0.34
Goals prevented
0.04	0.34

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 0)
27', McDonald K. 🟨,
33', Sweeney R. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Sraha J. ↓, Armer J. ↑,
55', Turns E. 🟨,
62', McDonald K. ↓, Woods R. ↑,
63', Cole R. ↓, Yogane T. ↑,
64', Lofthouse K. 🟨,
72', Larsson J. ↓, Tavares F. ↑,
72', Francis E. ↓, Colwill J. ↑,
72', Burrell R. ↓, Bennett M. ↑,
73', Cox S. ↓, Oluwabori A. ↑,
83', McKiernan J. J. ↓, Kalinauskas T. ↑,
83', Watts C. ↓, Harper V. ↑,
86', Chauke K. 🟨,
88', MacDonald A. 🟨,

Chances of winning

Exeter City
32%

Draw
29.6%

Burton Albion
38.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.9%

28.3%

30.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.6%

28.1%

31%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Exeter City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Exeter City's form might have worsened.

Burton Albion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Burton Albion's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Exeter City than the current prediction. (+8.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Exeter City, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Burton Albion than the current prediction. (-7.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Burton Albion, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Exeter City - Burton Albion Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.94 ↑ (2.29)	3.2 ↓ (3.31)	2.46 ↓ (3.04)	6% (6.7%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

What is the prediction for Exeter City - Burton Albion?

Users Predictions: 32 users predict this event. Exeter will win (votes: 9 - 28.1%). Burton will win (votes: 20 - 62.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 9.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Burton: 45.7% – 79.3%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Burton Albion will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

In this match we will have an opportunity to see a game between team from the middle of a tournament table and a the outsider (ranked 15 and 20).
Last 5 head-to-head matches Exeter won 3.
Two teams are playing changeable.
Burton could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.
There will not play in Exeter: Mitchell D. (Knee Injury) Sweeney P. (Calf Injury) Trevitt R. (Hamstring Injury) Wildschut Y. (Knee Injury)
There will not play in Burton: Akoto N. (Inactive) Bajrami G. (Knee Injury) Gilligan C. (Inactive)
There are questionable in Exeter: Yfeko J. (Inactive)
There are questionable in Burton: Bodvarsson J. (Injury) Jones J. (Foot Injury) Sweeney R. (Injury)
Last 12 head-to-head matches Exeter won 5 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 12:12 (average 1:1).
Including matches at home between the teams Exeter won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 6:4 (average 1:0.7).

How many head-to-head matches has Exeter City won against Burton Albion?

Exeter City has won 3 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Burton Albion won against Exeter City?

Burton Albion has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Exeter City - Burton Albion were as follows:

21.12.2024 Burton Albion - Exeter City 1:2

16.03.2024 Exeter City - Burton Albion 1:0

02.09.2023 Burton Albion - Exeter City 0:1

11.02.2023 Burton Albion - Exeter City 1:0

17.09.2022 Exeter City - Burton Albion 0:2

Latest results of Exeter City

12.04.2025 Bristol Rovers - Exeter City 1:2 ✺

08.04.2025 Exeter City - Wigan Athletic 1:1 ✺

05.04.2025 Exeter City - Stockport County 0:2 ✺

01.04.2025 Barnsley - Exeter City 1:2 ✺

29.03.2025 Exeter City - Wrexham 0:2 ✺

Latest results of Burton Albion

12.04.2025 Burton Albion - Huddersfield Town 3:0 ✺

05.04.2025 Wrexham - Burton Albion 3:0 ✺

01.04.2025 Burton Albion - Leyton Orient 2:1 ✺

29.03.2025 Stockport County - Burton Albion 2:1 ✺

15.03.2025 Shrewsbury Town - Burton Albion 0:2 ✺

English League One Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Stockport County	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
2	Bolton	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
3	Reading	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
4	Wigan	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
5	Barnsley	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
6	Blackpool	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
7	Cardiff	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
8	Plymouth	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
9	Doncaster	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
10	Huddersfield	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
11	Leyton Orient	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
12	Luton	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
13	Northampton	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
14	Port Vale	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
15	Wycombe	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
16	Bradford City	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
17	Lincoln	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
18	Mansfield	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
19	Peterborough	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
20	Rotherham	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
21	Burton	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
22	Exeter	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
23	Stevenage	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
24	AFC Wimbledon	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

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