Figueirense vs Náutico Marcílio Dias – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Brazilian Copa Santa Catarina Figueirense - Náutico Marcílio Dias
Result
2:2
04/10/2025 at 14:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Copa Santa Catarina - Round 5

Match Stats

Red Cards
01

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (2 - 2)
  • 11', 0 - 1, ,
  • 21', 1 - 1, ,
  • 37', 1 - 2, ,
  • 45+2', 2 - 2, ,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
  • 56', 🟥,

Chances of winning


Figueirense
36.4%
Draw
29.1%
Náutico Marcílio Dias
34.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
45.1% 27.4% 27.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.4% 26.6% 26.8%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Figueirense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.7%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Figueirense's form might have worsened.
  • Náutico Marcílio Dias has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Náutico Marcílio Dias's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Figueirense than the current prediction. (+10%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Figueirense, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Náutico Marcílio Dias than the current prediction. (-7.7%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Náutico Marcílio Dias, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
  • Figueirense - Náutico Marcílio Dias Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.57
    (1.99)
    3.22
    (3.28)
    2.71
    (3.26)
    6.8%
    (11.4%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
    Preview Facts
    • Figueirense is Qualified for Copa Santa Catarina (Play Offs Quarter~finals)
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Figueirense won 1.
    • Figueirense is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).
    • Marcílio Dias has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
    • Figueirense is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
    • In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Figueirense won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 14:17. (average 1.2:1.4).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Figueirense won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:6. (average 1.4:1.2).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Figueirense - Náutico Marcílio Dias were as follows:
    15.09.2025 Náutico Marcílio Dias - Figueirense 1:2
    22.02.2025 Náutico Marcílio Dias - Figueirense 2:1
    15.10.2024 Náutico Marcílio Dias - Figueirense 0:0
    21.02.2024 Náutico Marcílio Dias - Figueirense 2:0
    21.10.2023 Figueirense - Náutico Marcílio Dias 2:2
    Latest results of Figueirense
    Draw
    Play Offs

    Quarter-finals
    1FigueirenseChapecoense-SC1 : 2
    2Santa CatarinaMarcilio Dias2 : 3
    3BlumenauTubarao1 : 0
    4CriciumaJoinville0 : 0